Recruiting Crisis: 9% want to serve

[gearhog]

I've been seeing a lot of articles the last few days with some shocking statistics. Looks like we may have to sub-contract the defense of our nation to foreign countries.

https://www.army.mil/article/260969/secretary_of_the_army_christine_wormuths_remarks_to_the_2022_ausa_opening_ceremony_october_10_2022as_prepared

https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/addressing-the-u-s-military-recruiting-crisis/

https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/4087630-recruiting-the-all-volunteer-force-requires-a-whole-of-nation-approach/

The one that really caught my attention was a Wall Street Journal article (behind a paywall) that suggests that Veterans are contributing to the crisis by not recommending military service.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pentagons-recruitment-woes-army-military-navy-air-force-u-s-defense-11665664019

I've given my kids my thoughts on the issue and thankfully, they've recognized they have better options. If a young person has common sense, intelligence, and a work ethic, you can go out into the real world, name your price, and live freely. As probably most of you have experienced, when someone knows you're a pilot, they'll send a young person your way for advice. A lot.

What you experienced is not going to be what they experience. Many of us had great careers, but it doesn't matter. Given the current state, an assessment of the trends, and attempting to forecast what it might be like the next 10-20 years, what do you tell them?

Edited July 10, 2023 by gearhog

[brabus]

Do it, that’s what I say. I get it there’s bullshit and worrying things occurring, but go back and every generation thinks the next generation/version of the mil is bullshit, ruined, sucks, etc. Things have changed a lot in my career, and I don’t care for many of them, but the core job satisfaction, the bros, and the adventure you can’t get anywhere else persists. I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t rewind the clock and do it all over again (while simultaneously counting the days until retirement and lamenting my fucked up back!)

Edited July 10, 2023 by brabus

[Danger41]

4 hours ago, gearhog said:

 

 

What you experienced is not going to be what they experience. Many of us had great careers, but it doesn't matter. Given the current state, an assessment of the trends, and attempting to forecast what it might be like the next 10-20 years, what do you tell them?

I tell them that if their ultimate goal is to make money, don’t join the military. Go make a pile of money selling insurance or working at initech and updating code. If you want to have a fulfilling life, do something with a purpose beyond making money. That doesn’t have to be the military, but that’s a great option. 
 

And the current state and assessment of the trends isn’t some Orwellian proto-gay state despite what a lot of you think. The kids today think differently but I promise you they would make the Greatest Generation proud if they’re called upon. Like Brabus said, every preceding generation thinks the succeeding generation sucks.
 

Where our recruiting is going wrong is they are leaning way too hard into the “woke” crap and not selling the purpose side of the military. And the benefits. 18 year old young men are the same as they’ve always been and the more macho aspects of the military of blowing shit up, operating cool equipment, etc is the ticket. Not cartoons about a female with 2 moms. Not to single that soldier out, but that’s the truth. Same with the Army changing their PT test that was tailored toward more general strength and athleticism. When women were having significant problems with it (but getting better over time), they just scrapped the test and went back to the old one that more women could pass. Stuff like that looks horrible to potential recruits. 
 

To me, one of the other major problems with recruiting is the constant stream of cynicism from meme pages and comment sections. Lots of it is funny as hell, but to impressionable recruits seeing all that who don’t have the context, it’s different. That stuff is way more effective at reaching interested recruits than PA would ever dream.

[pawnman]

The problem is that the benefits don't look as good as companies are upping their own benefits. Target, Starbucks, and Taco Bell all have better tuition assistance than the military, for example. 

Congress is going to have to recognize that military pay and benefits are not keeping pace, especially for what we ask people to do. 

[SocialD]

10 hours ago, gearhog said:

I've been seeing a lot of articles the last few days with some shocking statistics. Looks like we may have to sub-contract the defense of our nation to foreign countries.

 

 

Maybe we stop sub-contracting ourselves out in the defense of foreign nations and we're suddenly hitting the recruiting requirements... 

 

 

10 hours ago, gearhog said:

I've given my kids my thoughts on the issue and thankfully, they've recognized they have better options. If a young person has common sense, intelligence, and a work ethic, you can go out into the real world, name your price, and live freely. As probably most of you have experienced, when someone knows you're a pilot, they'll send a young person your way for advice. A lot.

What you experienced is not going to be what they experience. Many of us had great careers, but it doesn't matter. Given the current state, an assessment of the trends, and attempting to forecast what it might be like the next 10-20 years, what do you tell them?

 

 

I still highly recommend service to my nieces and nephews, but only in the ANG.  At least have some control over your life, get your schooling paid for and still get to experience some cool shit.  They may not have the career I had, or they may have something way better, who knows.  Sure they can walk down to Dunder Mifflin, but I can guarantee, they'll never experience the shit I got to do in service of our nation (and State lol).   

 

However, this generation doesn't tick like my generation, that's not a dig on them, no generation is the same.  If all they want to do is make money and be free, then ya, the military isn't necessarily for them.  Though there is still plenty of opportunity and money to be made in the military, our leaders just need to figure out how to reach this generation.  That said, I made way more money in the military than probably 95% of my graduating class (of 36 kids lol), or anyone from my home town/county.    For many kids that come from small, poor, farming communities like I grew up in, the military is still a great option.  For many of them, it's best option they have.  

 

Or they can "live free," and when that doesn't work and we suddenly need a stronger military, their kids will pay the price.  Hard times create hard men, hard men create....you know the rest.  

[brabus]

3 hours ago, pawnman said:

Target, Starbucks, and Taco Bell all have better tuition assistance than the military,

How so? Not a snide question, I really am curious. The mil is free college (state school) plus books and living expenses (capped obviously). They beat that?

1 hour ago, SocialD said:

That said, I made way more money in the military than probably 95% of my graduating class

I grew up in a fairly well off area where the majority of my class went to college. And I’m fairly confident I have out-earned most of them to this day and now with the airlines am exponentially out-earning them at a rapid rate. Even the doctors I know aren’t out-earning me (when you take into account my zero debt and their mega shitload of debt still remaining today). The best part is I’d bet out class’ highest earner is a great blue collar dude who owns his own business and is killing it.

Point is the mil earning potential really is hard to beat unless you’re a young dude straight to the investment world with connections, or something like that. 

[Biff_T]

One of my sons ships off to the Navy in Aug.  He’s trying out for SWCC.  He hasn’t even left yet and the Navy already has his ass up every morning doing pretty intense physical training.  He’s pretty stoked.  I tried to talk him into being a pilot but he wants to shoot fully automatic guns, drive boats and hop out of aircraft.  You can’t do that in the civilian world.   My other two sons have expressed zero interest in the military (I’ve taken all of them flying, and none want to be a pilot, lol). I think volunteering for military service has to do with your personality. Not everyone wants to the excitement (or extreme boredom) that comes with the military life.  
 

Most news articles want doom and gloom.  I trust my son and the kind of dudes he hangs out with to take care of us if shit goes down.   The young guys aren’t all selfish dumbasses.  
 

 

[Pooter]

I think the meme pages hurt retention far more than recruiting. I doubt very much if high schoolers in droves are following viper driver memes and chuckling at ultra specific FLUG DCA jokes or complaints about morale shirts or FSS walk in hours. 
 

What is hurting recruiting far more IMO is the left's constant push to make people ashamed of our country and our history. 

[Blue]

14 hours ago, brabus said:

Do it, that’s what I say.

.....the core job satisfaction, the bros, and the adventure you can’t get anywhere else persists. I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t rewind the clock and do it all over again (while simultaneously counting the days until retirement and lamenting my fucked up back!)

 

6 hours ago, SocialD said:

I made way more money in the military than probably 95% of my graduating class (of 36 kids lol), or anyone from my home town/county.    For many kids that come from small, poor, farming communities like I grew up in, the military is still a great option.  For many of them, it's best option they have.  

These are valid opinions and good insight, but not really relevant, right?  You're both pilots, and while opinions vary, being an Air Force pilot has to be one of the most sought after job in the military.  There is no shortage of folks wanting to fly.

When you hear of a "recruiting shortage," it's generally a shortage of high-school grads willing to sign up for a four year enlistment.  A high school grad today was born in 2005.  Think about all they've seen growing up (Iraq, Afghanistan, etc).  More importantly, and as the WSJ article touches on, someone who thinks about enlisting is going to seek out someone they know who's been in the military.  Say your Uncle Joe just retired from the Army.  What kind of recommendation do you think old Joe is going to give after spending the last 20 years on an endless series of deployments to the Middle East?

[brabus]

@Blue I get your point, but there’s still awesome enlisted jobs and the things I referenced are just as applicable and valid if you do an apples to apples comparison. Drive tanks and blow shit up for 4 years vs. swing a hammer for 4 years. The mil guy did way cooler shit you can’t do anywhere else and walked away with GI Bill and a solid resume for post-mil work, while likely making more $/benefits. That’s one example. 

[herkbum]

Loadmasters and flight engineers experienced everything I did while flying Herks. I started my career in Aeromedical Evacuation and flew with some great people as well. AFSOC gunners, etc. Plenty of enlisted flying opportunities.


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[artvandelay43201]

Patiently waiting for @FourFans thoughts on this issue 

[Sua Sponte]

16 hours ago, pawnman said:

The problem is that the benefits don't look as good as companies are upping their own benefits. Target, Starbucks, and Taco Bell all have better tuition assistance than the military, for example. 

Congress is going to have to recognize that military pay and benefits are not keeping pace, especially for what we ask people to do. 

Apple gave me more tuition assistance, as a part-time technician working a college job, than the USAF ever did. There was also a lot less hoops to jump through to use it.

[Sua Sponte]

4 hours ago, herkbum said:

Loadmasters and flight engineers experienced everything I did while flying Herks. I started my career in Aeromedical Evacuation and flew with some great people as well. AFSOC gunners, etc. Plenty of enlisted flying opportunities.


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FEs are going the way of the dinosaur and being a boom is 1,000 times better than being a load.

[tac airlifter]

In 2010 my son was excited to join the military and do badass stuff I was doing.    By 2023 he is not joining, and instead on a pre-Med scholarship.  None of his friends are joining.  It's a tragic loss for our nation; he's a state champion athlete and top 2% scholar with no qualifying issues, whose dad was pushing him towards joining.  But it's a shit deal to join after we wrecked a generation in IZ/AFG for nothing.

Our humiliating exit from wars which defined his youth was decisive.  He thinks the government will send you to die and never let you win.  He's not wrong.

Edited July 11, 2023 by tac airlifter

[herkbum]

FEs are going the way of the dinosaur and being a boom is 1,000 times better than being a load.

I flew both the Herk and the -135, I enjoyed the Herk mission more. Lots more mission variety.


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[Pooter]

2 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

In 2010 my son was excited to join the military and do badass stuff I was doing.    By 2023 he is not joining, and instead on a pre-Med scholarship.  None of his friends are joining.  It's a tragic loss for our nation; he's a state champion athlete and top 2% scholar with no qualifying issues, whose dad was pushing him towards joining.  But it's a shit deal to join after we wrecked a generation in IZ/AFG for nothing.

Our humiliating exist from wars which defined his youth was decisive.  He thinks the government will send you to die and never let you win.  He's not wrong.

100%. On an individual job level the Air Force is amazing. Best flying and best camaraderie to be had anywhere. 
 

But on an organizational level it's a shitshow.. wrapped in a dumpster fire.. inside a clown show.. all ultimately governed by our broken political system. 
 

You know something is deeply fucked organizationally when they decide to cancel bonuses and pause PCSs and the first place people are finding it out is the front page of CNN. 

[Lord Ratner]

I'm not sure there's a point in joining during the post-war periods. Obviously if you don't have other options, sure, but I started at the Academy in 03 when military appreciation was sky-high and the budget was booming. By the time I got out in '17 the silliness was outweighing the serve-your-nation pretty significantly. I was thoroughly unimpressed with the O-6+ cadre who seemed to think mentorship was telling you how awesome it was for them as CGOs and how they didn't understand why my generation doesn't want to stay in (without ever seeming to realize pre-9/11 O-club antics were long dead by the time we commissioned). Then of course the obligatory lecture on how you were a bad officer and bad person if you needed more than 3 drinks to have a good time, from the dude with a bottle of scotch in his desk.

 

Unserious leaders in unserious times makes for a pretty frustrating experience. And if things get serious and scary, there will be limitless opportunities to join a freshly funded and focused military with a renewed appreciation for killing enemies and breaking things. So maybe do something else until then.

 

I'm pretty content in my airline job that the military rolled me into, but someone starting off now would get to the airlines with less time and frustration if they just went to one of the pilot factory schools, and they'd have a better seniority number and higher income to pay off the loans. That wasn't an option in '03-'13.

 

In retrospect, being told that all men are rapists and only women lack the capacity to consent to sex after having a beer was a walk in the park compared to the nonsense now. I had fun, but I don't miss it 

[SocialD]

17 hours ago, Blue said:

These are valid opinions and good insight, but not really relevant, right?  You're both pilots, and while opinions vary, being an Air Force pilot has to be one of the most sought after job in the military.  There is no shortage of folks wanting to fly. 

 

When you hear of a "recruiting shortage," it's generally a shortage of high-school grads willing to sign up for a four year enlistment.  A high school grad today was born in 2005.  Think about all they've seen growing up (Iraq, Afghanistan, etc).  More importantly, and as the WSJ article touches on, someone who thinks about enlisting is going to seek out someone they know who's been in the military.  Say your Uncle Joe just retired from the Army.  What kind of recommendation do you think old Joe is going to give after spending the last 20 years on an endless series of deployments to the Middle East?

 

 

I was a pilot for MOST of my career, the first quarter of my career, I was as a crew chief.  I'm still close friends with many of my crew chiefs friends (as we're all still at the same base).  Those dudes have a damn good life, and make way more money than they likely would on our local economy (most won't leave due to entrenched family).  I specifically mentioned in my post that I'd only recommend it if they joined the ANG.  I know some companies (mentioned above), provide some TA, but I'd bet you'd be hard pressed to beat what they offer in the ANG. 

 

I can certainly understand why many won't sign up for a 4-year AD stint.  I wasn't willing to do that in 2001 because I didn't want to lose out on those college years.  To your second point, I couldn't agree more, especially when you're talking Army.  My last trip to Bagram circa 2020/21, the Utah Army NG was there with their Apaches.  Talking with those guys, I was floored by how much deployed time these dudes had, mostly a year at a time.  I seriously can't understand how anyone maintained a family throughout that (lots didn't).  If I were a young kid and that was my only exposure to the service, I'd be looking for other options as well.  However, the big reason I was able to become a pilot, was because of my time as an enlisted guy.  I guess our leaders need to figure out how to leverage the fact that an enlistment has the potential to open up awesome opportunities, if you chose to take them.  Goodluck!

 

We are now seeing another giant price we'll pay for playing a 20 fucking year game of whack-a-mole in Afghanistan and Iraq/ME. Did anyone really even understand what we were doing past 2011?  I mean, did we ever have a boss that clearly laid out and end state and even a tiny semblance of how we were going to get there?  

[Standby]

Recruiting is down? Astonishing given efforts like this:

 

[tac airlifter]

8 hours ago, SocialD said:

We are now seeing another giant price we'll pay for playing a 20 fucking year game of whack-a-mole in Afghanistan and Iraq/ME. Did anyone really even understand what we were doing past 2011?  I mean, did we ever have a boss that clearly laid out and end state and even a tiny semblance of how we were going to get there?  

Great questions.  The answer is no.  Every GO sold out, repeated the same supportive tripe in public while privately voicing concern at our trajectory, yet continued up the chain of rank and pay.

Imagine if we had leaders who said this: “I resign from active service.  I love our country but cannot continue in good conscience to lead our men and women into danger with no clear objective or purpose.  Indecisive political policies are irresponsible, and I resign in hopes the ensuing attention will cause this matter to be taken seriously and resolved with urgency.”  
 

GOs reading this, and I know they are, will doubtlessly guffaw at the simplistic scenario I present above.  However, they lacked the courage to take bold action.  Everyone with combat experience knows we don’t have bold/courageous General Officers.  We have highly intellectual GOs who can stay up 20 hours a day, run miles each morning and work their staff to death analyzing a multitude of variables… but they aren’t bold and can’t win..  
 

So to the GOs readIng this in fury at my condemnation- I’m certain you think I am ignorant of how futile and ostracizing my proposed COA would be.  You’d be embarrassed in front of your peers.  It would be awkward and socially uncomfortable.  But had you played that card, you’d be a hero today.  Instead, congrats on the retired rank but you’re forever attached to the ignominy of how those wars ended.  FWIW I practice what I preach and burned every bridge on my way out over an issue to help my young squadron members.  It was uncomfortable going from #1 to the trash can, my peers and supervisors despised me at the end and I didn’t have a retirement ceremony over this issue.  However, I played every card and logged a major win for the young captains 6 weeks before retiring.  

[Lord Ratner]

11 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

So to the GOs readIng this in fury at my condemnation- I’m certain you think I am ignorant of how futile and ostracizing my proposed COA would be.  You’d be embarrassed in front of your peers.  It would be awkward and socially uncomfortable.  But had you played that card, you’d be a hero today.  Instead, congrats on the retired rank but you’re forever attached to the ignominy of how those wars ended.  FWIW I practice what I preach and burned every bridge on my way out over an issue to help my young squadron members.  It was uncomfortable going from #1 to the trash can, my peers and supervisors despised me at the end and I didn’t have a retirement ceremony over this issue.  However, I played every card and logged a major win for the young captains 6 weeks before retiring.  

Story time.

 

 

[pawnman]

On 7/10/2023 at 9:29 AM, brabus said:

How so? Not a snide question, I really am curious. The mil is free college (state school) plus books and living expenses (capped obviously). They beat that?

I grew up in a fairly well off area where the majority of my class went to college. And I’m fairly confident I have out-earned most of them to this day and now with the airlines am exponentially out-earning them at a rapid rate. Even the doctors I know aren’t out-earning me (when you take into account my zero debt and their mega shitload of debt still remaining today). The best part is I’d bet out class’ highest earner is a great blue collar dude who owns his own business and is killing it.

Point is the mil earning potential really is hard to beat unless you’re a young dude straight to the investment world with connections, or something like that. 

They may not beat the GI Bill, but they beat tuition assistance. All three companies will pay 100% tuition to select schools with no annual cap. The military pays $4500 a year, in years where budget constraints don't turn it off early. 

[pawnman]

On 7/10/2023 at 2:30 PM, brabus said:

@Blue I get your point, but there’s still awesome enlisted jobs and the things I referenced are just as applicable and valid if you do an apples to apples comparison. Drive tanks and blow shit up for 4 years vs. swing a hammer for 4 years. The mil guy did way cooler shit you can’t do anywhere else and walked away with GI Bill and a solid resume for post-mil work, while likely making more $/benefits. That’s one example. 

Not much call for tank driving in the civilian world, though...

[brabus]

@pawnman Ah. Well GI bill still wins by a long shot over straight TA, but the TA diff is certainly a valid point. 

Also, don’t be obtuse, you know I’m not insinuating the hypothetical dude is going to get a civ tank driving job. He’s going to have a resume with skill sets that far outpace the hammer swinger, all while likely making more money and having greater benefits. That’s the point.