Recruiting Crisis: 9% want to serve

[Biff_T]

Just make morale shirt dickies lol.  

Just a collar and a few inches (sts) exposed for the viewing pleasure if others.

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by Biff_T

[Sim]

Quote

"Currently, the active duty is projected to miss [its] goal by about 10%," Leslie Brown, a spokeswoman for the Air Force Recruiting Service, said. "We are cautiously optimistic though as we head into FY24. We've seen some positive trends such as the positive growth of our DEP [delayed-entry program], which is double what it was this time last year. It's still lower than we want it to be, but we are continuing to see increases."

Like the Air Force, the Army and Navy will also likely miss their recruitment goals for 2023, with the Army expected to post the largest deficit at a time when the armed services have been trying to beef up their numbers. Last year, the Army was 15,000 soldiers shy of its 60,000 enlistment goal. This year, it's only reached 40% of its target.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/foreign/air-force-misses-recruitment-goals-china

[StoleIt]

Quote

Hundreds of Airmen Stuck Waiting To Start Pilot Training As Shortage Persists

...As of Aug. 25, more than 900 Airmen are waiting to enter the pilot training pipeline, according to 19th Air Force data. Roughly a quarter have been waiting less than three months, but most are between three and nine months. Another quarter—around 220 people—have been stuck even longer...

...In fiscal 2022, the Air Force produced 1,276 pilots. In 2023, that number increased slightly to around 1,350, but still short of the goal of 1,470. With demand from commercial airlines strong, the need for new pilots to replace those leaving the service is persistent. The 19th Air Force’s goal will be 1,500 new pilots in fiscal 2024, a spokesperson said...

...Quinn said the overall pilot shortage remains at around 2,000, roughly the number it has been for the last several years. Vice Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin previously told Congress that the Air Force has taken steps to ensure the shortfall doesn’t mean aircraft aren’t flying...  

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/airmen-waiting-pilot-training-shortage/

So I'm not great at math but, maybe they should try retaining people rather than producing people. Because, it seems like that COA isn't working...and, in recent memory, has never worked.

[di1630]

In actuality, the usaf probably doesn’t need as many pilots as it thinks it does.

We are stuck in an outdated model. Fighters especially just aren’t probably as necessary today as a few years back.

We have better, cheaper options.


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[Banzai]

7 hours ago, di1630 said:

In actuality, the usaf probably doesn’t need as many pilots as it thinks it does.

We are stuck in an outdated model. Fighters especially just aren’t probably as necessary today as a few years back.

We have better, cheaper options.


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Go with source, study, or evidence to back up your conjecture that fighters are less important.

I would concede that you could make a case we didn’t need fighters from 2001-2021, but how exactly do you do implement doctrinal concepts of “air superiority” or “air supremacy” against peer threats in 2027 or 2035?

Edited September 14, 2023 by Banzai

[brabus]

I can safely say the statement about the diminished need of fighters is not remotely accurate. As I’ve said before, the last fighter pilot hasn’t been born. Will fighter aviation continue to change, of course,  but decrease in necessity/relevancy, nope.

[Danger41]

I’ll take a stab at the “doctrinal” concept of air superiority/strategy as related to fighters. Using China as an example, long range precision fires, maritime interdiction of supplies, and non-kinetics will play more of a role in achieving the AF’s #1 doctrinal priority than a 4-ship of Raptors on a Banzai flow. Admittedly, in a tactical sense of traditional strike packaging, you need to have the OCA players out front steamrolling the lane, but to think only fighters have a role to play in air superiority is incorrect.

[herkbier]

12 minutes ago, Danger41 said:

but to think only fighters have a role to play in air superiority is incorrect.

Other than you.. who has made this assertion?

[brabus]

He’s absolutely correct - there are lots of non-fighter capabilities that are part of Counterair ops. For clarity if needed, my comment about the incorrect statement about diminishing fighter needs is not a statement that we don’t need, or won’t use, a host of widely different capabilities in concert to achieve our desired effects. 
 

Also back to the point of the thread - it’s clear production is not the solution, retaining is. The AF doesn’t need more than 1k pilots produced per year, they need to stop hemorrhaging dudes with experience. 

Edited September 14, 2023 by brabus

[di1630]

Haha, I knew I’d get a few riled up here. Brabus is correct, the last fighter pilot hasn’t been born. That doesn’t mean that last fighter pilot will be as relevant and necessary as they once were.

There is a reason raptors are retiring in 10 yrs, NGAD will be procured small in numbers and the F-35 but will be cut drastically from original #’s and it has to do with things like hypersonic artillary and new tech that does the job of the fighter cheaper/better/with less risk.


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[brabus]

There’s the glossy brochure/i’m-not-briefed version, and then there’s reality. Pilots (including fighters) will be very relevant for decades to come. 

Edited September 14, 2023 by brabus

[HossHarris]

It’s really hard to jam/hack/interdict a bullet or a dumb bomb delivered by a well trained thinking human being. 
 

lemme know when the egg heads crack that nut 

Edited September 14, 2023 by HossHarris

[Inertia17]

14 hours ago, di1630 said:

There is a reason raptors are retiring in 10 yrs, NGAD will be procured small in numbers and the F-35 but will be cut drastically from original #’s...

I'd argue that is more due to our acquisitions process being completely fubar, contracting not realizing how Lockmart/Boeing etc are going to bend them over with the loopholes, and those companies abusing said loopholes.

[di1630]

It’s really hard to jam/hack/interdict a bullet or a dumb bomb delivered by a well trained thinking human being. 
 
lemme know when the egg heads crack that nut 

Other than hogs, does any fighter community even train to those skills anymore?

I get it and I knew my post would rile people up.

Try telling an ex viper pilot that their BFM foundation was for nothing or a hog guy that they’ll never get close enough to use their 30MM or better, call the F-22 a legacy platform for some good responses.

Not debating fighters will be around a long time. Just that their role will diminish as better/cheaper/safer options are fielded.

And they are being fielded.

[Banzai]

14 minutes ago, di1630 said:

And they are being fielded.

Oh really? Where?

The content of your post isn’t what’s riling. It’s that your argument has no effective warrant.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Banzai

[brabus]

3 hours ago, di1630 said:

Just that their role will diminish as better/cheaper/safer options are fielded.

It will not diminish, it will change. Those are different things…words matter. “Better/cheaper/safer being fielded”…dude, you don’t know what you don’t know. Not a spear, but a reality check.

Bottom line, cool shit is always developed and changes warfare, but nothing coming is decreasing pilot importance in the future, it will simply change how we do things. Historically you could compare this to WW2 having tons of aces and we’ve got zero actively flying today - that doesn’t mean fighters diminished in relevancy, it means things changed how we used them in concert with other tech. Buffs aren’t carpet bombing the fuck out of things like Nam, but they’re still relevant and important today…things change, but relevancy hasn’t decreased.

As a reminder to everyone (including myself), this is about the end of this topic’s discussability on the internet. Don’t fuck it away.

[Lord Ratner]

6 minutes ago, brabus said:

Historically you could compare this to WW2 having tons of aces and we’ve got zero actively flying today - that doesn’t mean fighters diminished in relevancy, it means things changed how we used them in concert with other tech. Buffs aren’t carpet bombing the fuck out of things like Nam, but they’re still relevant and important today…things change, but relevancy hasn’t decreased.

That sounds... diminished.

 

Why doesn't the bomber Mafia run the AF anymore?

Edited September 15, 2023 by Lord Ratner

[Biff_T]

On 9/14/2023 at 7:02 AM, brabus said:

the last fighter pilot hasn’t been born.

[SurelySerious]

That sounds... diminished.
 
Why doesn't the bomber Mafia run the AF anymore?

The bomber will always get through!

[di1630]

Oh really? Where?
The content of your post isn’t what’s riling. It’s that your argument has no effective warrant.

You can read unclass plenty of sources in the future Im referencing if you have an open mind to change.

I’d start with Army long range hypersonics, check out open source space capes, read up on adversary capes. Sone interesting naval stuff as well.

Brabus is right on this probably reaching the end of conversation on some levels but lots of open source out there to get you thinking.

Reminds me of when my PAS in ROTC who was a F-4 pilot got upset that I wrote a paper on computers replacing the need for WSO’s.


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[di1630]

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/hypersonics.html


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[SocialD]

11 minutes ago, di1630 said:

Reminds me of when my PAS in ROTC who was a F-4 pilot got upset that I wrote a paper on computers replacing the need for WSO’s.

 

 

I think I saw that guy posting on the FB OFP group yesterday.  Just below the post about how we'll lose every future war because we don't do formation takeoffs anymore.  

[Danger41]

5 hours ago, di1630 said:

call the F-22 a legacy platform for some good responses.
 

"Legacy 5th Gen" does make me giggle when I hear that.

[di1630]

 
 
I think I saw that guy posting on the FB OFP group yesterday.  Just below the post about how we'll lose every future war because we don't do formation takeoffs anymore.  

Don’t forget fix to fixes


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[brabus]

2 hours ago, Danger41 said:

"Legacy 5th Gen" does make me giggle when I hear that.

It’s funny because it’s true!