17D_guy Posted July 9, 2013 Posted July 9, 2013 (edited) Rusty, If the take rate is lower than last year, you are correct & hit the nail on the head, it is because of the late release. Nothing has demonstrably changed from last year EXCEPT the very late release. Again, you won't be able to see the true effect of the -11F increase until next year, when the numbers will go up no matter when the release occurs, because 11Fs will not get out of the Air Force until the bonus info is released. Expect same bonus next year- increase for -11Fs only. Is there some kind of exit survey that you do to support these assumptions? EDIT - would like to add it needs to be better than the climate survey where you lump everything from slightly agree to kool-air drinking cookie monster together. Edited July 9, 2013 by 17D_guy
Rusty Pipes Posted July 9, 2013 Posted July 9, 2013 Rusty, If the take rate is lower than last year, you are correct & hit the nail on the head, it is because of the late release. Nothing has demonstrably changed from last year EXCEPT the very late release. Again, you won't be able to see the true effect of the -11F increase until next year, when the numbers will go up no matter when the release occurs, because 11Fs will not get out of the Air Force until the bonus info is released. Expect same bonus next year- increase for -11Fs only. I'm not sure where this logic comes from. I understand that the take numbers may be down, but in theory the take rate should be higher shouldn't it be? If guys dropped papers to get out between last Oct and when the ACP came out then I'm guessing there is a pretty good chance those guys were getting out either way (maybe a few exceptions). So if you take the folks who are left over and the take rate is low then that should be very telling I would think. Maybe my logic is off, but I'm guessing that if you have someone who is eligible for the Bonus and doesn't take it there is a good chance they have an exit strategy already and are playing with house money at that point... now they have options.
11F... Posted July 9, 2013 Posted July 9, 2013 For what it's worth, I spoke with a tax professional yesterday. In my situation (married w/ 4 kids), the half up front option to 20YAS would cost me ~$10,000 more in taxes over 9 years (making the huge assumption that the tax code doesn't change) as opposed to the $25,000 per year. Also FWIW, I've filed my own taxes every year of my life with moderately complicated returns (at times), and I ran the numbers a few times and figure that taking the half up front option costs me right around $1000 over the total 9 year period. The extra money in year one can be stuck in a freaking savings account even at today's rates and make that interest back in 4 years. 11F, I don't know your personal situation and the extra $10K cost may be completely accurate for you, but for anyone else considering the two options I just wanted to offer an opposing viewpoint and don't want anyone to come on here and take it at face value that the lump sum is the wrong choice, because in my case (married w/ non-working spouse and 2 kids) it is definitely in our best interest to take the money now. Not to mention another key point you make is that all of this is assuming tax rates stay at current levels. I'd bet a million dollars that tax rates stay the same or go up. No way do they go down over the next 10 years (meaning I'd prefer as much of my money taxed now at a potentially lower rate). Plus my income will only go up over the next 9 years, not down or stay the same. All of these factors made it a no-brainer in my situation to take a lump sum. And for my personal situation, I am a non-school dude who had one foot (actually 1.75) out the door based on everything that's been discussed ad nauseam on here. The allure of a retirement at 20 years and a very good assignment (outside the pain of the USAF) are what kept me in, and without the sweet assignment, there was a 0% chance I was staying. Even with the favorable assignment, it was still an incredibly difficult decision, and I can say that in my situation the bonus played zero role in my decision. Had there been no bonus this year, I would've stayed in (because my next PCS will be at around the 16ish yr point and my family and I have decided that I/we can endure 4 years of pain for the big retirement prize at the end). We'll see if it's a decision I/we end up regretting, but I don't think that's a question I can answer until 20-30 years from now. To Rusty's point about all the bonus-takers being school-selects, while not necessarily true, his point is valid. There will surely be guys who take it and are not school selects/fast-burners/whatever. But the real question is what percentage of ARP takers were staying in for 20 regardless of the bonus? I'm a beneficiary of $225K, but I'll be the first to admit I think it's an absolutely terrible, lazy, expensive, and completely inefficient retention tool. It's frustrating as hell to me, because I think the majority of folks who take the bonus are/were staying in anyway (not to mention the multiple posts on here discussing the root causes of the problems, none of which the bonus fixes or even addresses). If the AF took all this freaking bonus money and was able to subtly funnel it into a pool of money that could hire a bunch of civilian schedulers, day laborers, and generally all around queep do-ers (that apparently the Pentagon thinks we already have?), you'd have a helluva lot more morale going around the squadrons, and with a few additional tweaks in the way we collectively manage our people and our operations, there would no longer be a need for an effing bonus because folks would enjoy coming to work everyday. It'd be a win/win. 1
hindsight2020 Posted July 9, 2013 Posted July 9, 2013 And for my personal situation, I am a non-school dude who had one foot (actually 1.75) out the door based on everything that's been discussed ad nauseam on here. The allure of a retirement at 20 years and a very good assignment (outside the pain of the USAF) are what kept me in, and without the sweet assignment, there was a 0% chance I was staying. Even with the favorable assignment, it was still an incredibly difficult decision, and I can say that in my situation the bonus played zero role in my decision. Had there been no bonus this year, I would've stayed in (because my next PCS will be at around the 16ish yr point and my family and I have decided that I/we can endure 4 years of pain for the big retirement prize at the end). We'll see if it's a decision I/we end up regretting, but I don't think that's a question I can answer until 20-30 years from now. Bingo.....chalk another one up to the supposedly mentally-induced "subjective" differences between the Charlestons and the Cannons of the world. Some of the kool-aid drinkers on here suggested earlier in the thread that assignments are 'what you make of it' i.e. not a matter worthy of making go/nogo decisions over, and that valuations of discomfort regarding location are largely imagined and hardly real or objective. All locations are good and it's only in the mind of the person that things are bad... Yet, EVERY single quitter who wasn't a RIF dude that we've hired on the Reserve side unequivocably 7-day opted over 2 things: 1)PCS location 2)flying vs non-flying. That's it. No bonus or such nonsense. 'It's what you make of it' my ass! I know more people who've walked out of the plantation over a nutpunch PCS than I know passed over separatees. Running outta toes to count here A1.... Hell, Minot and Cannon look like Ford assembly lines. 5 ducks fly the pond for every billet you need to fill. Tell me that's mere happenstance and "just in these people's heads/it's what you make of it"... LOL 1
tac airlifter Posted July 9, 2013 Posted July 9, 2013 Agreed, location = QOL for my family when I'm deployed; a happy family is the only way I can sustain the 1000+ days deployed I've already accumulated. And a shitty assignment location is the most likely thing to make me punch, despite how much I enjoy the fight. Keeping CVS open and a sole location for numerous AFSOC platforms is a national scandal with a direct negative impact on our ability to prosecute the mission by driving away talent. 1
Cap-10 Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 If there is an exit survey when you separate, then I didn't get it. Along that same line, when I said I was separating, no one in my chain wanted to know why i was getting out...apparently a 15 year 11F, Lt Col(S) pitching out didn't seem odd to anyone....The OG/CC, WG/CC...not one "dude, what's up?" Cheers, Cap-10 2
matmacwc Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 (edited) I got one when I separated, it was actually pretty in depth. I pointed them here, but that was 2 years ago, when there was sage advice and help, vs 96 % bitching. My leadership knew why I was getting out and I had total support, then again I am still flying USAF airplanes as a full time job. Edited July 10, 2013 by matmacwc
Scooter14 Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 My leadership knew why I was getting out and I had total support, then again I am still flying USAF airplanes as a full time job. I really wish more people understood this. Back to your regularly scheduled bonus conversation.
cent20 Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Has anyone submitted there application yet and had it approved? Just submitted mine online and Bob's answering machine is saying it could take up to 3 weeks because of the backlog.
SVFR Posted July 10, 2013 Posted July 10, 2013 Signed, faxed, tracking number message received, and final review message received - all in less than 15 mins. Message claims DFAS will not be forwarded agreement for process until on or after ADSC effective date on agreement.
Hacker Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 If there is an exit survey when you separate, then I didn't get it. Along that same line, when I said I was separating, no one in my chain wanted to know why i was getting out...apparently a 15 year 11F, Lt Col(S) pitching out didn't seem odd to anyone....The OG/CC, WG/CC...not one "dude, what's up?" Cheers, Cap-10 Because as soon as you "turn your back" on Big Blue, you're dead to it.
TAMInated Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 Because as soon as you "turn your back" on Big Blue, you're dead to it. Just like when Big Blue turned its back on me. Would have been nice to fill out an exit survey, though, especially after seeing the sweeping changes that followed every other survey I filled out. 1
Hacker Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 Just like when Big Blue turned its back on me. Would have been nice to fill out an exit survey, though, especially after seeing the sweeping changes that followed every other survey I filled out. The sooner that we realize that we're just a manning number to Big Blue, and the only people that might actually care about you are some of your squadronmates, the closer you are to achieving nirvana. 5
TAMInated Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 (edited) TX in three weeks, ANG unit that sits alert, I'm already there bro! Edit to add: After the 'fuge I'll be there. Edited July 11, 2013 by TAMInated 1
Vetter Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 I realized long ago that the Air Force needs me more than I need the Air Force. Makes things pretty easy in the end... 1
11F... Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 Has anyone submitted there application yet and had it approved? Just submitted mine online and Bob's answering machine is saying it could take up to 3 weeks because of the backlog. Only took a week for me for the entire process, beginning to end, to have money in my bank account. For reference, I started my application 2 days after the official release, so I'm not sure what kind of backlog has built up since then, but there were at least 2 days for folks to submit before me, and it clearly wasn't backlogged yet.
billy pilgrim Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 (edited) TX in three weeks, ANG unit that sits alert, I'm already there bro! Edit to add: After the 'fuge I'll be there. Congrats. My TX was the best TDY of my life. Fuge was probably one of the worst. "Zero percent light loss!" Edited July 11, 2013 by billy pilgrim
ClearedHot Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 That would apply to what? 1, maybe 2 guys that I know of. AFSOC is a selfish child. "If that happens"? Still holding on to hope are we? Just let it go bro, let it go. Do you have facts to prove that? I've seen otherwise...folks are flowing out and assignments to return to fly are still dropping. If there is an exit survey when you separate, then I didn't get it. Along that same line, when I said I was separating, no one in my chain wanted to know why i was getting out...apparently a 15 year 11F, Lt Col(S) pitching out didn't seem odd to anyone....The OG/CC, WG/CC...not one "dude, what's up?" Cheers, Cap-10 Sad... I talk to folks all the time, never with the intent of trying to convince someone to stay, just want to understand the why and ask if they've considered other options. Recently I wrote two letters of recommendation for folks getting out so they could apply to guard/reserve units.
Rusty Pipes Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 Sad... I talk to folks all the time, never with the intent of trying to convince someone to stay, just want to understand the why and ask if they've considered other options. Recently I wrote two letters of recommendation for folks getting out so they could apply to guard/reserve units. Not a slam in anyway here... but isn't it too late at that point? The part of being a leader/supervisor where you fight for feedback is a big problem today. Sometimes the "why" is out of the control of the supervisor/commander, but in a perfect situation no boss should be surprised when one of their folks tells them they are leaving. The shame of it is if someone tells you why and there was something that could have been done to have kept them in. Again, not saying you weren't doing the right thing... I think there is an atmosphere today where line guys don't want to provide feedback to their bosses for fear of either "showing their cards" or being seen as a trouble maker.
Herk Driver Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 I think there is an atmosphere today where line guys don't want to provide feedback to their bosses for fear of either "showing their cards" or being seen as a trouble maker. Sorry, but this really gets under my skin...dudes need to sack up...you want your bosses to listen to you but you always blame the environment as to why you cannot provide feedback. Having been a Sq/CC, I am sure there are dudes who were "afraid" to come see me, but from the looks of my overcrowded calendar, there were just as many, if not more, who were ready, willing and able to come sit down and chat about anything under the sun, including telling me where they thought things were going terribly wrong. What you are saying is that the Sq/CC is damned if he does do an interview and damned if he doesn't. Maybe it won't help the one guy who decided to get out but if there are systemic issues at that Commanders level then he can do something to fix them for the next guy, right? Change things to make the organization better? Stop with the pissing and moaning about how no one listens. I have never had a boss that was not willing to listen in more than 12 assignments. We may not have seen eye to eye and when we sat behind closed doors, they knew exactly where I was coming from. Sometimes they changed things, sometimes they didn't. I did not want a bunch of Yes, men in my organization. However, we all have to remember that some decisions are made for the betterment of the AF and the unit and when they do individual bitches take a back seat. Other times, that is not the case. 1
Rusty Pipes Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 (edited) Sorry, but this really gets under my skin...dudes need to sack up...you want your bosses to listen to you but you always blame the environment as to why you cannot provide feedback. Having been a Sq/CC, I am sure there are dudes who were "afraid" to come see me, but from the looks of my overcrowded calendar, there were just as many, if not more, who were ready, willing and able to come sit down and chat about anything under the sun, including telling me where they thought things were going terribly wrong. What you are saying is that the Sq/CC is damned if he does do an interview and damned if he doesn't. Maybe it won't help the one guy who decided to get out but if there are systemic issues at that Commanders level then he can do something to fix them for the next guy, right? Change things to make the organization better? Stop with the pissing and moaning about how no one listens. I have never had a boss that was not willing to listen in more than 12 assignments. We may not have seen eye to eye and when we sat behind closed doors, they knew exactly where I was coming from. Sometimes they changed things, sometimes they didn't. I did not want a bunch of Yes, men in my organization. However, we all have to remember that some decisions are made for the betterment of the AF and the unit and when they do individual bitches take a back seat. Other times, that is not the case. I have never once been scared to be blunt with a commander on any level... especially behind closed doors, but I'd say I am most definitely the exception these days. I would do it on almost a weekly basis with my last OG/CC where at the end of the day when it was just the two of us left in the office I'd ask him if we could close the door and talk. After doing this 2-3 times he asked me why I kept telling him all of this negative shit and I said that I was telling him all the things he didn't want to hear (in private), but probably needed to hear. It wasn't anything about him, it was mostly telling him what I was hearing from the line guys. He said, "...and that is why I need you working for me!" The next day at the end of the OG Staff meeting he did the around the room thing but said, "OK guys... you just spent 45 mins telling me what I wanted to hear, now we're going to spend the next 15 mins where you tell me what I don't want to hear." He was a great Commander! i don't think anyone is confused about the fact that the "needs of the AF" come first. From everything that I've seen you post I'm guessing that you would be a guy that would be great to work for/with, but I'd say that lately the actions you said you have taken as a Commander would put you in the minority (same with Liquid). I don't need to tell you that just one comment of the Chang variety saying "if you don't like it then just leave because you are lucky to be here" will make almost everyone keep quiet for fear of rocking the boat (no strat, bad jobs, no push for XYZ opportunity). Unfortunately I've seen way more Changs than Herks in the past 10 yrs or so. The Bonus isn't going to convice most people to stay (many on here have said it was not a factor at all in their decision)... its just an added extra for those who decided for one reason or another to stay. Edited July 11, 2013 by Rusty Pipes
Herk Driver Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 That is what it takes...most people are just trying to do the best they can for their people and the AF. They will take any and all feedback that they can get. Many of my bosses have always had a "trusted agent" that they could get the ground truth from. I agree that very few people are swayed by the bonus.
AnimalMother Posted July 11, 2013 Posted July 11, 2013 Do you have facts to prove that? I've seen otherwise...folks are flowing out and assignments to return to fly are still dropping. Yup. I've only seen 2 dudes actually escape AFSOC in nearly 7 years. Not saying there aren't more, and I can't speak to the RPA side of the house, but like I said, I only know of 2. I do know, however, that a lot of guys have tried. I hope guys are getting more opportunities to move on, especially from RPAs, but I can tell you that AFSOC will not let you go without a serious fight.
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