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Posted
I just don't buy it. They must still be processing apps.

These are take rates direct from AFPC as of 10 Sep. Only finalized (signed, faxed, and approved) agreements are included in the numbers. 20 days remain for people to finalize. It will be interesting to see what targets are hit and what ones are missed.

C-5 take rate is really pushing up the AMC number.

You can call Bob and his answering machine will tell you how many agreements are in work. I might call tomorrow just to find out.

Posted (edited)

MAJCOM take rates:

AMC ~35%

PACAF ~37%

ACC ~40%

USAFE ~42%

AFSOC ~45%

AFMC ~52%

AETC ~53%

GSCOM ~67%

Does this go by the Base it was signed at or where they were when it was approved? Had some buds sign on the way out the door. Just curious if those off at school would be considered AETC or their losing MAJCOM. I would love to see a stat that shows how many takers were in an active flying billet. I know several who signed the 5 year... all but one just PCS'd to school this summer (will most likely spend a year at school followed by 3-4 yrs on Staff) and the one who is still flying will be going to school next summer. I'm wondering what the real demographics are.

Anecdotally, since Monday I have had 3 buds actively flying who are not school guys (2 C-17, 1 C-5) tell me they got hired by Guard/Reserve units and are punching between now and next summer. Both C-17 guys were initially told there was a good chance they could still go to school as non-selects, but were told in the past month or so by their bosses that with the new changes there was virtually zero chance... made their decision pretty easy; can't really blame them. The ones I know who did sign are all pretty sharp guys and I'm glad they got the cash, but even they joke about signing the ACSC/Staff Bonus. I would seriously like to hear Liquid or dare I say even Chang chime in to see this was the AF's target group or not. I can only go by what these guys have told me, but every one of them that I've asked said they had every intention of staying in either way. Maybe someone sitting down at Maxwell, Newport or Kansas can chime in with what the word is from those places first hand.

Edited by Rusty Pipes
Posted
MAJCOM take rates:

AMC ~35%

PACAF ~37%

ACC ~40%

USAFE ~42%

AFSOC ~45%

AFMC ~52%

AETC ~53%

GSCOM ~67%

I'm curious how this compares to a) AF/A1's goal or b) previous year's take-rates.

I should add I'm curious, but not curious enough to look it up.

Posted

The Air Force will release the "goal" as soon as all applications have been received, processed, and paid. What ever that number is...that was the Air Force goal! The reason it will be lower than last year? Because we are in the middle of a drawdown...these were the numbers we were looking for. We don't even need the guys who didn't take the bonus to stay...we're good! No, really...my magic formula and the numbers don't lie. (sarcasm)

Staffer: "WE MADE IT BOSS! Look at the power point briefing I put together with the perfect borders, font, and color combinations. We met our goal, Boss...there is no pilot shortage!"

Boss: "Great work Major! Now give me a list of those suckers who took the bonus so I can sign them up for some 365s we need filled"

Posted (edited)

That was pretty funny.

All joking aside, the SWA hiring window is in fact open again. Word from the bro's is it won't stay that way for long.

swa.pilotcredentials.com

Edited by Bergman
Posted

This isn't actually due to the 65 rule, but actually 1) AirTran guys who chose not to transfer and instead are retiring, 2) Southwest guys who don't want to deal with international/overseas flights and are retiring instead before age 65. Hence the 200 pilots being hired this year. No boom yet guys, sorry.

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

Just looked at the AFPC website, and the data they posted is current as of today. Assuming there's no rush between the posting today & midnight when they formally close out this FY's ACP, here's what I make of the raw data available. BLUF, doesn't look great for Big Blue:

- Take rate is down overall from last year (62% from 66%)

-- It's way down from FYs 10 & 11, when it was 77% & 70%, respectively

- Take rates decreased for four of the five largest pilot communities (Mobility, Fighter, Spec Ops, C2ISR)

-- Large percentage losses from large communities means significant losses overall

-- Fighter take rate only decreased slightly, but given low manning in the community & added incentives to keep them in through additional bonus options, not a good news story for the pointy-nose guys

- SOF & C2ISR communities saw double-digit decreases in take rates

-- SOF down to 55% from 73%, C2ISR down to 64% from 80%; since AFSOC in particular is grossly undermanned to begin with, again not a good sign

-- Should I assume Cannon is the reason SOF's got a low take rate & MC-12 is the reason for C2ISR?

- Weirdly, the two communities with the healthiest take rates (CSAR & Bomber--91% & 74%, respectively) are the redheaded stepchildren of ACC. Somehow, being unappreciated seems to make folks wanna stay in. I don't get it.

- The one ray of sunshine I found is that the take rate for RPA types increased a bunch (up to 59% from 49%)--I guess the new bonus options really did matter to them

. . . So, take rates are down despite additional ACP incentives, and at a time when the airline hiring's only just getting started. What's AFPC gonna do next year to improve retention in the midst of increased airline hiring & further hits to the Air Force budget?

I look forward to reading AFPC's Retention Report when it eventually comes out--can't wait to see how they're gonna spin this.

Cheers,

TT

  • Upvote 1
Posted (edited)

I remember reading somewhere the desired take rate was 65%, on the surface level 62% doesn't seem that bad. Wonder what the desired/planned was for each community?

Edited by xaarman
Posted

I look forward to reading AFPC's Retention Report when it eventually comes out--can't wait to see how they're gonna spin this.

My guess is that it goes something along the lines of "Since the ACP wasn't released until well into the FY, these are the exact numbers we were hoping for."

Posted

-- Should I assume Cannon is the reason SOF's got a low take rate & MC-12 is the reason for C2ISR?

- Weirdly, the two communities with the healthiest take rates (CSAR & Bomber--91% & 74%, respectively) are the redheaded stepchildren of ACC. Somehow, being unappreciated seems to make folks wanna stay in. I don't get it.

You're not looking at it from an economics and rational incentives perspective. It's dirt simple actually.

As to count 1? Cannon.

As to count 2? Navs. And strike two on ACC. It's not at ACC; it's at AFGSC that the big refugee camp takes place.

If you need the rational incentives flowchart for those two counts explained, you're thinking too hard.

Posted

This whole thing is just a reaffirmation that guys aren't staying (or leaving... or are willing to commit to stay) for the money.

Posted

There is no surprise here. These are the numbers we were expecting because of the late release...it was already part of our predictions (posted earlier in this thread). Our plan is to release next year's retention bonus late (even though it won't change) so we can expect the same numbers next year. Nothing to see here guys...we are on track!

Posted

As to count 2? Navs. And strike two on ACC. It's not at ACC; it's at AFGSC that the big refugee camp takes place.

Not getting what you mean about Navs--what do they have to do with pilot ACP take rates?

Posted

Not getting what you mean about Navs--what do they have to do with pilot ACP take rates?

I'm also curious. I know the 15E WSOs had the option for a bonus, but I don't remember seeing one for 12Bs.

Posted

I'm also curious. I know the 15E WSOs had the option for a bonus, but I don't remember seeing one for 12Bs.

Funny, I just double checked--the "Initial RPA" take rate for the fighter CSOs (18/33, for a 55% take rate) was lower than that of the fighter pilots. Still doesn't change the 57% take rate for fighter pilots I cited earlier.

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