Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

[TnkrToad]

As to count 1? Cannon.

On further reflection, I don't see how Cannon could be the cause of a significant drop in AFSOC take rates--Cannon wasn't exactly new in FY13. Any effect Cannon had on folks' willingness to stay in should likewise have depressed take rates in prior years as well.

- Only way Cannon could have had an effect in FY 13 is if new missions/aircraft were moved there in the past year, or if Cannon leadership/local conditions in Clovis suddenly sucked worse than in prior years

- If Cannon is truly the reason for worsening take rates in AFSOC, then that community is screwed. AFSOC's already undermanned--if Cannon's the problem and it ain't going away, then I don't see how that command will ever get healthy

I might be over-analyzing year-to-year trends in various communities, so I'll step back & make this bigger-picture observation: The last time the ACP take rate was below 65% was FY02. There's a continuing downward trend, from 76% in FY10, to 70% in '11, to 67% in '12, to 62% in '13. Not a good sign, in my estimation.

[Champ Kind]

- SOF & C2ISR communities saw double-digit decreases in take rates

-- SOF down to 55% from 73%, C2ISR down to 64% from 80%; since AFSOC in particular is grossly undermanned to begin with, again not a good sign

-- Should I assume Cannon is the reason SOF's got a low take rate & MC-12 is the reason for C2ISR?

On further reflection, I don't see how Cannon could be the cause of a significant drop in AFSOC take rates--Cannon wasn't exactly new in FY13. Any effect Cannon had on folks' willingness to stay in should likewise have depressed take rates in prior years as well.

- Only way Cannon could have had an effect in FY 13 is if new missions/aircraft were moved there in the past year, or if Cannon leadership/local conditions in Clovis suddenly sucked worse than in prior years

- If Cannon is truly the reason for worsening take rates in AFSOC, then that community is screwed. AFSOC's already undermanned--if Cannon's the problem and it ain't going away, then I don't see how that command will ever get healthy

From what I gather from Liquid's posts, it seems like he is AFSOC.

Any thoughts on the above data with regard to ACP take rate in your MAJCOM?

[17D_guy]

It shows you how great things are! More than half the guys are staying in! We're good to go Boss!

Just like the AF Climate survey where rating from "I find this job awful and not rewarding with some fun" to the blue kool-aid swilling brick wall breaking shoe are lumped together.

[TnkrToad]

From what I gather from Liquid's posts, it seems like he is AFSOC.

Any thoughts on the above data with regard to ACP take rate in your MAJCOM?

Although I'm a heavy guy by background, it's been a long time since I was in mother AMC--I guess this is why I'm posting here; I'd like to stay in touch with reality. Not much of the ACP thing has made sense to me lately--for the heavy community or otherwise. The only reason for the 62ish percent take rate in the heavies (at least so far as I can tell) is a combination of school selects and good deal assignments. Below is my completely unscientific thinking:

- 20 of the 62 percent are IDE/crossflow/WIC/overseas assignment/other extended-ADSC types. They've already "sold their souls" to Big Blue, so taking the bonus is a no-brainer

- A further 10 percent are the "bottom of the barrel" types that have nowhere else to go; better to stick with Big Blue's jobs program than risk life in a competitive marketplace

- Maybe another 20 percent are folks that have it good and figure it will remain so. After all, it's AMC types that're filling all the SUPT, OSA, USAFA, etc. billets, because the other communities can't afford to let their folks go. Problem is they're helping everyone but AMC

- The last 12 percent are perhaps the mission-oriented, good dudes that, although they weren't selected for school and their lives suck due to high opstempo, are nonetheless sticking it out because they still believe in the mission

Again, I have no clue as to whether/not I'm even close to right on the above percentages, but I think the concept is reasonable. Problem is, there aren't enough bodies in the last 12 percent group to get the MWS expert, IP/EP, ADOish types that you need. My assumption--those of you in heavy squadrons right now tell me if I'm wrong--is that quality O-4 types no longer exist in flying units. They're either at school, on staff, flying white jets, or are deployed . . . leaving CCs & DOs that's spent so much time out of the cockpit they don't know the mission, and nobody that does know the mission well enough to make the squadron run smoothly. The inmates are thus left to run the asylum, as a bunch of Capts/Lts try to hack the mission without the benefit of graybeard types around to mentor them.

My $.02. Take it for what it's worth.

[C-21.Pilot]

I'd like a number posted that shows how many eligibles:

1. Are school selects

2. And of those school selects, who took the bait.

Edited October 1, 2013 by C-21.Pilot

[Techsan]

Although I'm a heavy guy by background, it's been a long time since I was in mother AMC--I guess this is why I'm posting here; I'd like to stay in touch with reality. Not much of the ACP thing has made sense to me lately--for the heavy community or otherwise. The only reason for the 62ish percent take rate in the heavies (at least so far as I can tell) is a combination of school selects and good deal assignments. Below is my completely unscientific thinking:

- 20 of the 62 percent are IDE/crossflow/WIC/overseas assignment/other extended-ADSC types. They've already "sold their souls" to Big Blue, so taking the bonus is a no-brainer

- A further 10 percent are the "bottom of the barrel" types that have nowhere else to go; better to stick with Big Blue's jobs program than risk life in a competitive marketplace

- Maybe another 20 percent are folks that have it good and figure it will remain so. After all, it's AMC types that're filling all the SUPT, OSA, USAFA, etc. billets, because the other communities can't afford to let their folks go. Problem is they're helping everyone but AMC

- The last 12 percent are perhaps the mission-oriented, good dudes that, although they weren't selected for school and their lives suck due to high opstempo, are nonetheless sticking it out because they still believe in the mission

Again, I have no clue as to whether/not I'm even close to right on the above percentages, but I think the concept is reasonable. Problem is, there aren't enough bodies in the last 12 percent group to get the MWS expert, IP/EP, ADOish types that you need. My assumption--those of you in heavy squadrons right now tell me if I'm wrong--is that quality O-4 types no longer exist in flying units. They're either at school, on staff, flying white jets, or are deployed . . . leaving CCs & DOs that's spent so much time out of the cockpit they don't know the mission, and nobody that does know the mission well enough to make the squadron run smoothly. The inmates are thus left to run the asylum, as a bunch of Capts/Lts try to hack the mission without the benefit of graybeard types around to mentor them.

My $.02. Take it for what it's worth.

I think you're on course on glide path with your assessment. I took the bait this year, and am definitely in one of your 20% categories.

[17D_guy]

Although I'm a heavy guy by background, it's been a long time since I was in mother AMC--I guess this is why I'm posting here; I'd like to stay in touch with reality. Not much of the ACP thing has made sense to me lately--for the heavy community or otherwise. The only reason for the 62ish percent take rate in the heavies (at least so far as I can tell) is a combination of school selects and good deal assignments. Below is my completely unscientific thinking:

A simple survey would take care of all these questions. Do they do one after the ACP closes out for they year to figure out pros/cons of their program?

Or am I foolishly hoping someone's using that online Masters?

[nsplayr]

- Only way Cannon could have had an effect in FY 13 is if new missions/aircraft were moved there in the past year, or if Cannon leadership/local conditions in Clovis

suddenly sucked worse than in prior years

Use some google-fu and you can answer this one for yourself.

- If Cannon is truly the reason for worsening take rates in AFSOC, then that community is screwed. AFSOC's already undermanned--if Cannon's the problem and it ain't going away, then I don't see how that command will ever get healthy.

Bingo...talk to the 16th and 4th SOS about how the Cannon churn is affecting their long-term manning.

I'd love to hear senior leadership from any MAJCOM address their numbers directly, or better yet just release numbers by airframe, base and delineate how many takers were already school selects and we could draw some informed conclusions on our own.

Edited October 2, 2013 by nsplayr

[stract]

So, I think CSAR includes ALL 11Hs (Rescue Pilot). That's 60s, Hueys, and HC-130 folks. Curious to see the actual MDS breakout, as I think that may paint a clearer picture. The HC guys just got a shiny new aircraft, too...

[olevelo]

nsplayer pretty much hit it, but yeah, each year the prospects for Cannon get "brighter". The acceleration of AC-H retirements probably has some effect as well. Folks at the 73rd don't seem to be taken care of very well either, so the dudes see what happen to their bros and say screw it. I have 0 doubt that Cannon is at least 90% of the factor in AFSOC retention (ACP or not). Remember when dudes threw each other under a bus in order to go spec ops? The only ones who do now are the ones who don't know any better.

[Jaded]

Just look at ATP take rate per base. The Maxwell numbers skew the rest.

[Rusty Pipes]

Just look at ATP take rate per base. The Maxwell numbers skew the rest.

I assume that "ATP" was a typo and you meant "ACP"... but if you do look at the ATP take rate it will most definitely paint the picture of future pilot manning for the Air Force! I'd venture to say that All ATPs and Higher Power have a higher take rate than the ACP!

[Butters]

So, when are they going to release the FY14 ARP/ACP/Bonus? With the 5 guys being hired in the Airlines looks like the boom is here.

[ThreeHoler]

So, I think CSAR includes ALL 11Hs (Rescue Pilot). That's 60s, Hueys, and HC-130 folks. Curious to see the actual MDS breakout, as I think that may paint a clearer picture. The HC guys just got a shiny new aircraft, too...

2013 ARP Agreements Finalized by MDS

MDS (JH) HELI-H-60

94.12% (16 out of 17 eligible)

NOTE: DATA AS OF: 30SEP13

Source: AFPC Static Reports at https://access.afpc.a...Z1pub1&_debug=0

Edited October 2, 2013 by ThreeHoler

[Rusty Pipes]

2013 ARP Agreements Finalized by MDS

MDS (JH) HELI-H-60

94.12% (16 out of 17 eligible)

NOTE: DATA AS OF: 30SEP13

Source: AFPC Static Reports at https://access.afpc.a...Z1pub1&_debug=0

Would love to hear Liquid or Chang answer this question which has been asked several times... who is the AF REALLY trying to keep with the ACP? I'm guessing the stats from AFPC are not final yet, but just the takers by base can lead to some obvious conclusions. When you look at the number of takers from places like Maxwell, Newport, Pentagon, District of Washington, Leavenworth, Monterey... being too lazy to do the math it looks like about 90 takers with one or two non-takers (unless I'm reading it wrong). I'm guessing 99% of those guys are at School or a fast burner Staff position (Pentagon). That doesn't include the high numbers from Scott, Langley, Wright-Patt, Hickam, Randolph who may be on either MAJCOM Staff or flying that took the ACP. Did the AF manage to give a bunch of money to a ton of guys who already had absolutely every intention of staying anyway? That doesn't even include the random places on that list! You never know, but I'm guessing they don't give the job in Beijing or Istriana to the guy without ACSC in correspondence done! If the goal was to keep guys who were planning on staying anyway then they hit a grand slam.

Edited October 2, 2013 by Rusty Pipes

[C-21.Pilot]

So, when are they going to release the FY14 ARP/ACP/Bonus? With the 5 guys being hired in the Airlines looks like the boom is here.

5 that one guy knows....I can PM you a list well north of 50 that have been hired by SWA, UAL, Atlas and Virgin. Another 10-12 that will be out by 1 Dec just put there application in with AA - no doubt that that I expect half of those dudes to at least get an interview. The hiring "boom" won't be overnight as you keep speculating/wishing -- it will be a long drawn out process. No significant hiring since 2001 and now things are starting to swing north....there is plenty of hiring information on other websites if you need the details.

[Butters]

5 that one guy knows....I can PM you a list well north of 50 that have been hired by SWA, UAL, Atlas and Virgin. Another 10-12 that will be out by 1 Dec just put there application in with AA - no doubt that that I expect half of those dudes to at least get an interview. The hiring "boom" won't be overnight as you keep speculating/wishing -- it will be a long drawn out process. No significant hiring since 2001 and now things are starting to swing north....there is plenty of hiring information on other websites if you need the details.

So, when does the "boom" start? Dude, I am not speculating/wishing, just making fun of the guys that have been talking about this "boom" going on 10 years now.

Edited October 3, 2013 by Butters

[nsplayr]

Source: AFPC Static Reports at https://access.afpc.a...Z1pub1&_debug=0

Awesome data. Hurlburt is at 33.3% taking the bonus if you count the handful of uncommitted folks, Cannon slightly better at 43%. Yikes! Granted small data set (41 between the two bases) but there's the state of your AFSOC force in a nutshell right there for ya.

If the goal was to keep guys who were planning on staying anyway then they hit a grand slam.

Yea, thank god they offered the bonus to the 1 guy in Bangkok...he was probably right there on the fence!

Edited October 3, 2013 by nsplayr

[FlyinGrunt]

nsplayr has hit the nail on the head in AFSOC. On the negative side, some analysis on the HRT vs CVS numbers: most of those folks at CVS have been stuck here for some time. Probably thinking it'll be their turn for parole soon. However, the HRT folks KNOW CVS is inevitable if they stay in. At least that's what AFSOC leadership has been preaching for 4 years now: it's not a question of if, it's a question of when.

However, on the plus side (gunship only) the 27 SOG/CC gave a brief a few weeks ago outlining some of his big plans that might offer a ray of hope for our manning situation. Not immediate, not approved all the way up, but enough straight talk and plausible facts to encourage even a cynical SOB like me.

[Techsan]

Yea, thank god they offered the bonus to the 1 guy in Bangkok...he was probably right there on the fence!

I'm pretty sure I know that guy.

[11F]

From an 11F perspective, I'd have to say I am surprised. If you look at the take rates for F-15C, F-15E, and F-22, they were all near 70-75%. This is a group whose take rate last year was closer to 55%. I'm not a stats guy, but that seems to be a statistically significant difference. However, the F-16 take rate wasn't all that different. I was particularly surprised at the low take rate of Luke. Any other 11F insights?

Edited October 3, 2013 by 11F

[Jaded]

I would guess lots of f-16 guard opportunities.

[C-21.Pilot]

So, when does the "boom" start? Dude, I am not speculating/wishing, just making fun of the guys that have been talking about this "boom" going on 10 years now.

Dude, you are waiting for dynamite to explode then insert Batman like caption "BOOM". It's not an overnight ideal -- but the gradual hiring trends across the airline industry in general. I've heard the same "10 years" quote several times.....but now, it's a reality because of pending retirements. Across the range of major airlines (to include Fed Ex and UPS), they will have to replace over 14,000 pilots in the next 7 years due to retirement age.

That, my friend, is the "boom"....the fuse on a bunch of black-cats popping.

Edited October 3, 2013 by C-21.Pilot

[ViperStud]

From an 11F perspective, I'd have to say I am surprised. If you look at the take rates for F-15C, F-15E, and F-22, they were all near 70-75%. This is a group whose take rate last year was closer to 55%. I'm not a stats guy, but that seems to be a statistically significant difference. However, the F-16 take rate wasn't all that different. I was particularly surprised at the low take rate of Luke. Any other 11F insights?

Guard/res opportunities plus the fact that our community was ground zero for the great PC witch hunt by a bunch of dickless leadership. Several canned FS/CCs later it's not surprising that F-16 guys are the last ones to sign on the dotted line. The community morale is in the shitter maybe even moreso than the average 11F.

But they are getting the numbers they need. The bonus is all about those sitting on the fence and my observation is that they got a lot of them. They don't care about overpaying the ~20% of kool-aid drinkers because that's a necessary evil that is tied to getting the fence sitters to sign. Combine that with basically banning viper guys from UPT/ALO types of queep and the machine keeps on ticking.

[flyjetz]

Bomber bases:

Minot - 100%

Barksdale - 73%

Ellsworth - 80%

Dyess - 67%

Whiteman - 58%

Total - 70%

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