Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

[Fuzz]

I'm sorry, this is a little flawed, as not all 461 dudes were necessarily eligible for the bonus. Your bro would need to go look and see how many of the 461 met the eligibility requirements. As mentioned, prior E, prior service, other factors are in play here. Once your bro knows the true number of the 461 who met eligibility requirements, only then will we know what the true % takers was.

I think the terminology used was wrong but the larger point which was by saying "oh look 62% of the pilots took the bonus, nothing to see here everything is good" is as we all know false. This shows basing the health of the pilot manning on the percentage of takers is a bad metric. It's, as is being discussed in the Sequestration thread, manipulating data and playing word games to make things look all fine and dandy, the new bonus is working and now they don't have to address actual problems. It doesn't matter if there were 211 eligible or 50; it would have been spun the same way and ignored the other large number of people that were ineligible that were lost.

[Bergman]

Overall fighter pilot loss for FY13 (up to 30 Sept 13) is 59%. Out of 461 eligible, 276 got out.

Holy shit! Regardless of how, when, or why...the fact (if true) that HALF of eligible fighter guys just left should be a giant clue bird that the ship is taking on water. Titanic, anyone?

[Warrior]

Holy shit! Regardless of how, when, or why...the fact (if true) that HALF of eligible fighter guys just left should be a giant clue bird that the ship is taking on water. Titanic, anyone?

Not so fast.

We are assuming that half the guys getting out this year is a statistically significant change from last year. I'm not saying it's not, I'm saying that we don't have enough info to claim the sky is falling (in this instance)

Holy shit! Regardless of how, when, or why...the fact (if true) that HALF of eligible fighter guys just left should be a giant clue bird that the ship is taking on water. Titanic, anyone?

Not so fast.

We are assuming that half the guys getting out this year is a statistically significant change from last year. I'm not saying it's not, I'm saying that we don't have enough info to claim the sky is falling (in this instance)

[ThreeHoler]

Read the Rated Retention Report...it is about the same as FY12.

[Rusty Pipes]

Not so fast.

We are assuming that half the guys getting out this year is a statistically significant change from last year. I'm not saying it's not, I'm saying that we don't have enough info to claim the sky is falling (in this instance)

Agreed that is comparing stats to nothing, but in the past 2 weeks I've had 3 buds get hired by SWA and 3 hired by UA... and those were just the random post I happened to see on Facebook! All were active duty and all were MAF... only 1 of 6 were not eligible for the ACP this year, but he actually turned it down last year. Obviously anecdotal and not a "stat", but that sure as hell wasn't happening last year and the "hiring boom" (cue Butters) hasn't even started yet. They will be able to absorb this a little bit in the next year or so by not sending pilots to staff and PCSing guys from Staff back to flying, but that is a just a band aid. I'd say the next few years are going to be rough on the AF pilot community... hard to argue against that. Big Blue better get creative and they'd better do it fast... calling Chang... oh, Chang... has anyone heard from Chang?!?

[C-21.Pilot]

Just because a CAF or MAF guy doesn't take the bonus doesn't necessarily mean he's getting out when his/her ADSC is complete. Some guys just want to be more in control of where their career goes, and this is one way of allowing that to happen.

So, in essence, you won't be able to draw any conclusions from "how many folks actually LEAVE" until all those eligible for the bonus who DIDN'T take it are past their ADSC -- hence, the retention. I speculate we won't know until next year or two (right in the middle of the BOOM).

EDIT: Jusy saw on FB last night 2 more friends hired by SWA and one more to UAL.

Edited November 25, 2013 by C-21.Pilot

[Rusty Pipes]

Just because a CAF or MAF guy doesn't take the bonus doesn't necessarily mean he's getting out when his/her ADSC is complete. Some guys just want to be more in control of where their career goes, and this is one way of allowing that to happen.

So, in essence, you won't be able to draw any conclusions from "how many folks actually LEAVE" until all those eligible for the bonus who DIDN'T take it are past their ADSC -- hence, the retention. I speculate we won't know until next year or two (right in the middle of the BOOM).

EDIT: Jusy saw on FB last night 2 more friends hired by SWA and one more to UAL.

The other big factor in that is the School issue... as of now, essentially if you weren't a promotion board select then you aren't going. I have a few buds who are sitting Sq CCs and say it has been pretty tough to keep those guys motivated, especially when they are seeing all their buds getting the call from SWA, UAL, etc in the past few months. I understand the reasoning for making that change, but it may become an unintended retention barrier for pilots.

Edited November 25, 2013 by Rusty Pipes

[Fuzz]

Just because a CAF or MAF guy doesn't take the bonus doesn't necessarily mean he's getting out when his/her ADSC is complete. Some guys just want to be more in control of where their career goes, and this is one way of allowing that to happen.

So, in essence, you won't be able to draw any conclusions from "how many folks actually LEAVE" until all those eligible for the bonus who DIDN'T take it are past their ADSC -- hence, the retention. I speculate we won't know until next year or two (right in the middle of the BOOM).

EDIT: Jusy saw on FB last night 2 more friends hired by SWA and one more to UAL.

If I'm reading the post correctly, 59% of the 450+ pilots in that FY actually did separate.

[sky_king]

So if an 11F takes the bonus and they kick him out after 2 years, does he owe back the $112,500?

[ThreeHoler]

So if an 11F takes the bonus and they kick him out after 2 years, does he owe back the $112,500?

Not according to the reg.

[Herk Driver]

Not according to the reg.

That depends.

Check out AFI 36-3004, Table 1.1. There are two notes that cover involuntary separation (Notes 2 and 3). In some cases, recoupment happens and in others it does not. It depends on the circumstances and why the individual is being "kicked out". In either case, they will only recoup "unearned" portions of the bonus already paid.

[Vetter]

They will get their money back. Don't spend it.

[AwShoot1209]

I forecast a flood of prior-enlisted intel workers finding civilian contract intel jobs in the next 6-9 months, and making a mint better than their current paycheck.

https://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/467611/45-afscs-removed-from-srb-list-as-af-gets-leaner-smaller.aspx

45 AFSCs removed from SRB list as AF gets leaner, smaller

By Debbie Gildea, Air Force Personnel Center Public Affairs / Published November 26, 2013

JOINT BASE SAN ANTONIO-RANDOLPH, Texas (AFNS) -- Forty-five AFSCs will no longer be eligible for the selective reenlistment bonus effective Dec. 5 with the advent of the new selective reenlistment bonus list, Air Force officials announced Nov. 26.

SRB eligibility changes posture the Air Force for a smaller force driven by sequestration, said Brig. Gen. Gina Grosso, the Air Force director of force management policy.

“The SRB program is a retention tool," Grosso said. "As the force gets smaller, skills that were under-manned are no longer short and we are adjusting the bonus program accordingly.”

Critical and emerging career fields with high operations demands and low manning -- such as battlefield Airmen and cyberspace specialties -- still require attention, the general said, so some AFSCs will remain on the SRB list. As of Dec. 5, AFSCs on the SRB list will include the following:

1A8X1 Airborne Cryptologic Language Analyst
1A8X2 Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Operator
1B4X1 Cyberspace Defense Operations
1C2X1 Combat Control
1C4X1 Tactical Air Control Party
1N4X1A Fusion Analyst, Digital Network Analyst
1T0X1 Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape
1T2X1 Pararescue
1W0X2 Special Operations Weather
3E8X1 Explosive Ordnance Disposal

AFSCs being removed from the SRB list will include the following:

1A0X1 In-Flight Refueling
1A2X1 Aircraft Loadmaster
1C1X1 Air Traffic Control
1C3X1 Command Post
1C5X1 Command and Control Battle Management Operations
1C5X1D Command and Control Battle Management Operations – Weapons Director
1C6X1 Space Systems Operations
1C7X1 Airfield Management
1N0X1 Operations Intelligence
1N1X1A Geospatial Intelligence Analyst
1N1X1B Geospatial Intelligence Targeteer
1N3X1 Cryptologic Language Analyst
1N4X1B Fusion Analyst – Analysis and Production
1U0X1 Remotely Piloted Aircraft Sensor Operator
1W0X1 Weather
2A5X2B Helicopter/Tiltrotor Aircraft Maintenance (H-60)
2A5X2D Helicopter/Tiltrotor Aircraft Maintenance (CV-22)
2A7X1 Aircraft Metals Technology
2A7X3 Aircraft Structural Maintenance
2A7X5 Low Observable Aircraft Structural Maintenance
2M0X1 Missile and Space System Electrical Maintenance
2M0X2 Missile and Space System Maintenance
2M0X3 Missile and Space Facilities
2T3X2A Special Vehicle Maintenance – Fire Fighting Vehicles
2T3X7 Vehicle Management & Analysis
3D0X2 Cyber Systems Operations
3D0X3 Cyber Surety
3D0X4 Computer Systems Programming
3E2X1 Pavements and Construction Equipment
3E3X1 Structural
3E4X1 Water and Fuel System Maintenance
3E5X1 Engineering
3N0X2 Broadcast Journalist
3N0X5 Photojournalist
3P0X1A Security Forces Military Working Dog Handler
3S3X3 Manpower
4C0X1 Mental Health Service
4E0X1 Public Health
4H0X1 Cardiopulmonary Laboratory
4N0X1C Aero Medical Service – Independent Duty Medical Technician
4N1X1C Surgical Service – Orthopedics
4P0X1 Pharmacy
4R0X1C Diagnostic Imaging – Magnetic Resonance Imaging
4Y0X1H Dental Hygienist
6C0X1 Contracting
7S0X1 Special Investigations

Due to recent changes in Department of Defense policy, Airmen who are in an AFSC being removed from the SRB listing will no longer have 30 days to reenlist from the date the AFSC is removed. Instead Airmen in an AFSC being removed will have through Dec. 4 to reenlist and receive an SRB. Anyone reenlisting on Dec. 5 or later will use the new SRB list. In addition to these changes Airmen will no longer be able to request accelerated SRB payments.

For more information about SRB changes and other personnel issues, visit the myPers website at https://mypers.af.mil.

[ThreeHoler]

Because that belongs in the Aviation Retention Pay thread...

[NotADude]

Just out of curiosity, who was your source? Someone at AFPC (as in, a functional?) or is this bro-speak?

It was bro-speak that I got (fairly removed) from someone who is a WG exec (Maj type). I believe it's all his personal analysis, so definitely not AFPC (although let's be honest, those guys have no clue what's going on in the AF right now)

[Butters]

Anyone know when the FY14 Bonus is going to be released? I heard they were going to triple it since the hiring boom is here. Did I say triple? I meat quadruple.

I found it funny today that when I went to work the AF still existed after a 68% bonus take rate and a hiring boom.

[BitteEinBit]

Anyone know when the FY14 Bonus is going to be released? I heard they were going to triple it since the hiring boom is here. Did I say triple? I meat quadruple.

I found it funny today that when I went to work the AF still existed after a 68% bonus take rate and a hiring boom.

Of course we'll still have an Air Force. We'd have an Air Force if it was a 0% take rate and a hiring free-for-all. What we should be considering is how effective and efficient will our Air Force be if we keep having low bonus take rates and a hiring boom. We should be considering addressing what is causing the low take rates and how we plan to manage aircrew shortages many people in personnel management positions still refuse to acknowledge.

I know you're just trying to jokingly jab at those who are seemingly crying wolf on this issue, but there are actually people in management positions who would rather this organization fail than to admit that personnel management mistakes have been made and that we do have a real potential problem in the making...they just refuse to see it coming (standard). It is the "nothing-to-see-here-manipulate-the-stats-so-our-problem-is-masked" crowd that we need to worry about. Being an effective fighting force is more than just having enough bodies and looking good. We probably meet our end-strength numbers (after manipulation of course), but are we really that good or do we just look good on paper?

I do know one guy at the top who has already acknowledged this problem...and he isn't laughing right now. Buy hey, that's just me crying wolf again...we've never really seen anything like this in the history of the AF...after all, we haven't stopped being an Air Force since 1947...why should we worry now?

[Azimuth]

https://www.stripes.com/special-pays-would-be-first-casualty-of-delayed-defense-bill-1.254910

[Jaded]

Ridiculous.

[Rusty Pipes]

Take away flight pay… yeah, that should do wonders for retention!

[hindsight2020]

Based on the responder's comments, it seems the justification behind taking away incentive pay stems from the idea that there are people on the outside lining up to perform these specialty AFSC/MOS. The problem with that logic is that the main complaint on the part of the members already in is their inability to be allowed to perform said duty as a preponderance of their time in the service. Put another way, *gasp* ....the AF sucks the fun out of it. So you need money to keep experience, in order to gain the discretion to mismanage said experience. Epic.

Here's an alternate scenario. How 'bout let people do their job til they're blue in the face and not fuck with them when they're at home. Nah, that would just be too fucking Burger King for the likes of senior leadership. Ah fuck it. Do something til it stops making sense to you and your family, or you get fired. Works for me. Y'all already did more than 99% of the pedestrians out there.

/choirpreach

[PropWash]

Bah, I'll believe it when it happens. No one wants to be the Congressman who kept the troops from getting their combat pay. Hell, even when they shut down the government, they bailed out AD military pay in the 11th hour. I've been wrong before but I will be shocked if this comes to pass.

[matmacwc]

And they didn't bail out the GS until hour plus 4 days. Just wait, it's coming.

[ViperStud]

Rumor from CC, claims its from a source at the puzzle palace in DC. Combo of A-10, F-15 and staff cuts would delete a lot of rated positions and "fix the glitch" of a pilot shortage. With no shortage, they have talked about no bonus this year. A lot of moving parts, like when do the plans get released, when does the bonus announcement come out, etc. Interesting that a year after it goes up, it goes away. Nothing certain by a long shot, just talk.

I can't believe AFPC would want to deal with a bunch of free agents with opportunities on the outside in the coming years. Even butters admits the hiring boom is here.

[Tonka]

Too bad we have to wait 6-9 months to find out... There's going to be a lot of career-gambling this year.