Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

[FUSEPLUG]

The guys that are Bonus-eligible are usually at the top of their MWS pyramid. You simply can't replace their skills and experience with a fresh set of wings out of UPT. These are your experienced patch-wearers, FTU IPs, and the first guys you tag with leading the first wave into combat a 365.

FIFY

[General Condition]

I think you're right about the 10 year point not being break-even. However, as has been pointed out before, many who accept the ARP do so not necessarily because they were staying to 20 anyway, but because non-UPT commitments took them to 14-16 TAFSCD. Unless you land a highly lucrative job (FO with a major does not count), then you're better off taking the bonus and hacking through the last 5 years of the AF grind to garner a pension.

I'll never argue with someone who takes the bonus. I know that decision isn't made on a whim. The AD retirement is a great deal - it's a pretty nice security blanket to get a check every month and have some form of free health care (may not be the best, but it's definitely something). I just want guys on here to start looking beyond that carrot and think about what they're going to do when they're 42 years old. You also need to think about what you're going to do if you hit 14 years of service and get passed over for O-5, then get pink-slipped the following year. Some of the '99 folks were lucky enough this year to get offered an early retirement, that hasn't always been the case.

I've known plenty of folks who walk at the end of their ADSC and do just fine with the airlines. By the way, what do you consider "highly lucrative?" First year pay as an FO certainly doesn't count in my book, but you'll be making six figures after that at the majors (AA, DAL, UAL, SWA, FedEx, & UPS). There are a ton of career FO's out there who make plenty of cash and are perfectly content to sit at the top of the FO seniority list. Don't forget the Guard/Reserve option. If you get out after about 15 years of service, you'll still get a retirement check when you turn 60. I've looked at some numbers and you'll be pulling in around $3,500/month (pre-tax 2014 dollars). Nothing to sneeze at.

That's where the decision needs to be made. Is it worth deferring your retirement check by 18 years? Quality of Life at an airline is dictated solely by your date of hire. I'm assuming that you know all this, so I won't go into the detalis about what QOL does for you at an airline. For those guys who retired from AD, they get a nice check every year (which really helps during first year pay) and don't have to do squat for it. The Guard/Reserve bubbas have to work for their check, but they also have the advantage of taking mil leave. If you live by your Guard/Reserve location, this gives you a lot of flexibility (especially as a junior guy on the seniority list) to be home on certain days. True, you still have to work. I know a lot of people flying for the airlines listed above - they are all very military friendly.

These are tough decisions to make. Everyone has their own individual circumstances. I want guys to be informed though. There was a lot of bad information being spread around on here and that pisses me off. If you've got questions about Airlines/Guard/Reserve, don't ask the AD Colonel who's never lived it. Find someone who has. Odds are that that Colonel is going to spout out the myths that his predecessors have passed along to him about life outside of AD ("the job market sucks," "the pay & benefits suck," "your quality of life will suffer," "it's not rewarding," "you'll be gone from home all the time," etc.).

This forum isn't the place to preach the party line. It's a place to bitch, gripe, and complain, with some relative anonymity. It's also a place for people to ask and answer questions. If I have an answer or advice, I'll try to stop the spread of mis-information and answer it as best I can. I won't stop typing, but I suggest that someone else stop breathing. You know who you are. Your comments are trollish and worthless. I hope people disagree with me and offer intelligent counter-arguments. That's the best way to get all the information on the table. But I won't stand for incessantly posting the party line on here so you can go brag to your boss about how you "mentored" the restless natives on BODN. This is simply unacceptable. The people on here are smarter and better than you. Enjoy all of your "peerless" strats on your OPR. Just remember that peerless means friendless.

P.S. Fuseplug - thanks for setting me straight. Truer words have never been spoken . . .

[Prozac]

For those who are leaving to fly with the airlines, good luck. There are lots of great opportunities out there where you don't have to deal with some of the AD AF bullshit, but you will still have to deal with airline bullshit. Just a different flavor.

True. However, said bullshit doesn't follow you home. I generally don't think about work until check-in.

Unless you land a highly lucrative job (FO with a major does not count), then you're better off taking the bonus and hacking through the last 5 years of the AF grind to garner a pension.

Care to elaborate? I'd think that in the current hiring environment, 5 years of seniority would be worth more than the pension. Admittedly, I have no data to back that up.

[Guest]

Ultimately, if they want to use ACP to actually sway people's minds on staying in, they're going to need to pony up more cash. 125k is a decent chunk of change, but unless they significantly up the bonus it won't sway my decision when my ADSC is up in 4 years. $50k for 5 years (or better yet to retirement) and a guarantee of continuation to 20 or early retirement if passed over...now that could be tempting. But it'll never happen because as Chang points out us mobility guys are so overmanned.

[Muscle2002]

True. However, said bullshit doesn't follow you home. I generally don't think about work until check-in.

Care to elaborate? I'd think that in the current hiring environment, 5 years of seniority would be worth more than the pension. Admittedly, I have no data to back that up.

Would five years of seniority actually be worth more than the pension? Apples to apples, it does not seem likely. Assumptions: if you leave the AF at 15, you leave it completely and don't go to AFRC or ANG. Let's also assume, for the sake of argument, that the amount of time it takes to upgrade to airline Captain is the same for the guy who left the AF at 15 and the guy who stayed until retirement (I realize this is a big assumption).

My back of the napkin math suggests that pre-tax pension for a person who lives another 30 years is approximately $1.5M. Will an airline pilot be able to pull in $1.5M in five years (not counting 401K and other company retirement contributions)? Unless I'm missing something, it seems unlikely. Now if you factor in someone who goes AFRC/ANG at year 15, then the calculus differs considerably.

My point was not that seniority is not valuable...it is, but from a tangible compensation standpoint, I think the 15 year person, when faced with quitting the AF cold turkey for the airlines or sticking it out for five more years stands to benefit more by sticking it out.

I have not delved into higher order equations to sort this out, but I did not posit the previous post based solely off a gut feeling either.

[Vetter]

$1.5M in 5 years at the airline? I don't know the future, but I'd wager in 20-25 years, a wide body captain will easily be able to make $1.5M from age 60-65. And that doesn't include the 16% 401k contribution.

[Guest]

Rough wag (current pay rates from airlinepilotcentral and dfas, no taxes, inflation, etc):

If you separate at 15, your income for your last 5 years of employment (assuming 777 Cap with United making 255/hour, 1000 hrs/year)=1.275M

If you stay in til 20, assuming you're a Major you'll make 437073 in base pay, 50400 in flight pay, 125000 ACP, 120k in BAH (assume 2k a month, obviously varies with location), and 14774 in BAS. Add those up and you get 747k.

So you'll make about 500k less in earnings but have a military retirement netting you ~43k a year, healthcare, and the right to shop in the commissary or BX at noon, pissing everyone off in the process.

[matmacwc]

Iraq falls apart, Iran finally invades to stop ISIS, oil goes to 175 a barrel and the airlines furlough. What am I missing?

[Smokin]

If you eliminate the 401K in your math, you're missing a huge benefit of the airlines. The matching 401K plus Delta's 2% (I'd bet the other majors will start that soon) will more than even out the missing $45K a year of retirement pay.

matmacwc - the part your missing is all the extra 365's that'll cause. Furlough vs 365.... I'd really have to think about that one. On second thought, I can always be a greeter at walmart, so I'd take the furlough.

[Vetter]

Fuck...let's keep playing this game. The US Government goes bankrupt in 10 years. You pension vanishes. We can play what ifs all day. In spite of the Obama administration, we are much more energy independent than just a few years ago. I don't see oil going to $175 (knock on wood).

All that said, for me, the airline life has been great so far. Not being attached in any way to the military makes the gamble worth it.

[hindsight2020]

Fuck...let's keep playing this game. The US Government goes bankrupt in 10 years. You pension vanishes. We can play what ifs all day. In spite of the Obama administration, we are much more energy independent than just a few years ago. I don't see oil going to $175 (knock on wood).

All that said, for me, the airline life has been great so far. Not being attached in any way to the military makes the gamble worth it.

As to government collapse and my welfare payments? My bet is the airlines furlough before my reserve pension or SS check ever bounces, whether it be today or in 30 years. I'm happy taking that bet.

All that said, I'd never pursue an airline job without either a pension check or current Guard/Res flying membership/participation for the following reasons: It acts as partial insurance against furlough and lack of access to turbine currency. Not to mention, Guard/Reserve participation is a powerful way to manage the first five years of airline 'juniority' schedules. This is no small benefit in my personal scorecard, being a QOL-over-$$$ type. Doing the airlines cold turkey is too volatile and anti-QOL for my blood.

I would agree with you in that, I too would pursue airline work before I do the latter 10 of an Active Duty career, regardless of economic considerations and knowing what we know about the dynamics of years 12-20 for most. There's a lot to be said about shaping your days to your own accord without acquiescing to gratuitous Combat Desk FWA quagmires and other associated institutional military bullshit that don't ring true to one's heart. I think smart folks with the proper perspective should be able to land on their feet as they transition from Active Duty, whether they become airline pilots or not. It's the 'nav-mentality' dopes without a real marketable educational foundation or the grit required to step outside the box that encounter problems in reaching income parity outside their DFAS check.

[ThreeHoler]

Has anyone called the number to find out the weekly recording of how many applications are being processed and how many have been finalized? It would give a better indicator than the finalized applications on the website which always lags several weeks behind.

Do I think it will be as high as normal...probably not. But I think we are all seeing bad or incomplete data right now.

[ViperStud]

I think smart folks with the proper perspective should be able to land on their feet as they transition from Active Duty, whether they become airline pilots or not. It's the 'nav-mentality' dopes without a real marketable educational foundation or the grit required to step outside the box that encounter problems in reaching income parity outside their DFAS check.

Alright, for all the nancies that I offended 2 pages ago, 2020 just summed it up.

Toop.

[Prozac]

If you eliminate the 401K in your math, you're missing a huge benefit of the airlines. The matching 401K plus Delta's 2% (I'd bet the other majors will start that soon) will more than even out the missing $45K a year of retirement pay.

This. If you want a true apples to apples comparison, you need to look at the whole package IRT airline compensation. If you also choose to finish out your 20 with the guard/reserve, you are golden (retirement, furlough protection, control over schedule, etc). Additionally, because we are on the front of the wave right now, that 5 years of seniority will be worth exponentially more in the long run.

[Bender]

All of this assumes the individual is interested in flying for the airlines. It also assumes that one is punching as a O-5 at 20 years.

After 20 years of service, I would think one deserves to get a second career that would make one happy...I find it hard to believe that an airline gig really fits that bill for the majority.

From a money accumulation standpoint, I see the logic...but, I think I departed that path when I commissioned with an engineering degree (that I chose based on income potential to boot.)

Best of luck to each of you in determining what's best for your livelihoods here.

Bendy

Edited September 1, 2014 by Bender

[Prozac]

Bender hits the nail on the head. The airline gig isn't for everyone and comes with its own unique set of challenges. Bottom line: do what's right for you and your family. Just make sure you do it with your eyes open.

[Hueypilot]

For all of you "doing the math" and coming up with these "what if" scenarios, realize that people were doing that back in the 1990s and I can guarantee you not one of their predictions came true.

Like anything, an airline career is based in part on timing. Some of the guys at my airlines were hired during the good times, made captain and have been in the left seat through most of the "bad years". Other guys got in right at the tail end of the 1980s hiring wave and they've been sitting reserve as an FO for the better part of 25 years, and furloughed 1+ times.

The airlines isn't a panacea. It will not cure cancer, make you rich or make you happy. If you love flying, you'll enjoy flying for the airlines, but it is a change in pace, especially in the beginning. The first few years, you won't have too much control over your schedule and you'll be going into work as everyone else around you hits the lake or heads out to see family for the holidays. But given the realities of airline staffing, your schedule likely will get better. Short of a massive economic hit (where we're all pretty screwed), you'll still go up the seniority list. The mandatory Age 65 rule will see to that. Even with us losing about 250 pilots a year to mandatory retirement, we're losing almost as many to medical retirements (it's a lot harder to keep your Class 1 when you're 62-63)...and to that issue, we're still understaffed somewhat, despite hiring constantly.

For those of you that don't really care if you're flying an airplane or not, I'd suggest finding another way to make a living, because the first few years are going to burn you out. I'm writing this from my crash pad, having had to say goodbye to the wife and kids on Labor Day while all my other friends are out barbecuing. I'm betting on quick movement up the list to where in another 2-3 years I'll have weekends off and maybe even some holidays off. As for vacation, having a legitimate vacation week off when you want it will still be further down the road, but as they say in this industry, "that's what sick leave is for".

My advice...forget the number crunching. Do what you think is best for you and your family. If you can find a AFRC/ANG gig nearby, then it's nice insurance, additional income during those first couple years, and a good way to get to 20 and get something for your troubles while Active Duty. If it would require commuting somewhere else to do it, I'd forget about it because it'll cost you way too much in QOL to make it worthwhile. If you love aviation, fly for the airlines. If you don't, then don't. I enjoy my job even though I'm pretty much at the bottom...so in my opinion, it'll be an awesome job once I have some seniority and relocate to live in-base.

As for the bonus...you'll never be happy if you're chasing money. If you stay in, do it because it's the right thing for you and your family at the time, and if the military pays you a little extra for the decision, then great. Otherwise, pass on the money and find the opportunity you're looking for elsewhere.

[Danny Noonin]

Good post

[nunya]

while I played Mario Kart, Halo, and Call of Duty in a crash pad tent far away at Bagram for 8 months.

FIFY.

[TnkrToad]

I’m less concerned with active-duty vs. airline pilot balance sheets than I am with an ACP program that makes no sense. I have yet to read a rational explanation for how/why ACP program decisions are made.

Discussion below: I’d love to be proven wrong, but I’m not optimistic:

- It’s not about seeking to gain or maintain 100% manning in different pilot communities . . . which is what I thought is the whole point of the program

o The 11S and 11H communities, which at least last I checked, are worse-manned overall than the 11F community, did not get offered the same enhanced options that the 11Fs were. Weird.

- HAF A1M has no idea whether/not they’re really being effective

o Per rtgators, “I'm not sure I have anything to do with what flavor of rated has expiring UFT ADSCs.”

o They know what their “Red Line” requirements are, as well as their “Blue Line” inventory. They could have found out from AFPC how many eligibles there would be—and could have known with pretty darn good certainty what take rate they’d need to meet their requirements . . . but they didn’t bother

- The 11M community is likely screwed

o All A1M apparently cares about is overall manning

o Overall manning for 11Ms will likely always remain close to 100% . . . because of the relative ease of producing 11Ms and 10 year SUPT commitments

o If, and more likely when, 11M bonus take rates and retention plummet due to airline hiring, A1M will continue to remain unconcerned (because they’ll have enough folks to fly the line)

o Mobility leaders will be selected from small pools of candidates after the retention carnage . . . which increases the odds that there will be some really poor leaders in the heavy community. The ongoing JQP “toxic leadership” discussion might very well be indicative of the same dynamic

§ I’ve never had anything to do with Rhatigan, but you’ll note he was one of the few mobility pilots in/around his year group left in the Air Force after the late-90s through 2000 airline hiring spree

The scary part is, every time I bring up a point on this forum, the response from rtgators and General Chang is never, “great idea--we thought of that, but this is why your idea won’t work . . .” The response is, instead, to cite irrelevant historical statistics (low airline hiring between 09-13 [forgetting to mention Age 60-65 rule change], mil pay going up every year [but disregarding need to retain folks in the middle of a war]).

TT

[Azimuth]

Only 8 months? Ok, I'll take it. Better than the 365 that I've been told every single person that signs the bonus automatically gets.

Guy at my last base signed the bonus and got a Air Attache' job.

[scoobs]

Guy at my last base signed the bonus and got a Air Attache' job.

Thought the fighter community needed people in the cockpit?

[SurelySerious]

Thought the fighter community needed people in the cockpit?

This conversation is for adults.

[General Condition]

Nailed it.

Airlines aren't for everyone, everyone knows that. But to reiterate a little of what Hueypilot is saying, it's important to remember that airlines also aren't for everyone right now. I'll most likely end up flying airlines. But it's not for me right now. I absolutely love flying fighters and my wife and I enjoy the lifestyle, the camaraderie, and the opportunity to live overseas in the AF. I'm not willing to trade that away now for something that I see as, no offense to airline guys, simply a way to put food on the table and not much more. Especially with very young kids, I couldn't stomach the idea of burdening my wife with holding down the fort while I played video games in a crash pad far away. So I took the bonus, ...why wouldn't I? The AF has been damn good to me for 12+ years straight now. I realize I'm in the minority, so I completely understand and respect why other guys make the decision to separate. I would never criticize them, despite how many of them remind me, totally unsolicited, that I'm a "sucker" for taking the bonus and staying in the AF.

But I can honestly say that money, let alone these long-term, 30-35 year comparisons, never factored into the decision. At all. It's not like the choice to spend 8 more years as a fighter pilot in the Air Force OR to spend 8 years as an airline pilot were some sort of totally equivalent options, separated only by which one I think will make me more cash. And even if they were, the difference in money is not, to me, compelling towards either path. Every one of these notional comparisons is within a few hundred K at the end of the notional guys life. Is that really swaying anyone either way? ~$300,000 over the course of your life? Seems trivial to me, especially since those numbers are based on many many variables that are out of anyone's control. Invest wisely and consistently over long periods of time and you'll be fine. Either career path generally allows you to do that, no?

I realize I might be on the back end of the hiring wave (or miss it entirely) by the time I go to the airlines. Maybe I'll spend my 20yrs in the airlines in the right seat while several of you are in the left seat making beaucoup bucks. That's fine. I can live with that. I also realize that the AF gets to tell me what to do for the next 8 years. Meh...no different than it's been for the last 12 years.

Bottom line: My family and I are happy and perfectly content in enjoying our adventure in the AF. I think we would have been much less so, had I switched gears to the airlines right now. In 8 years I'll hang up my G-suit and continue to do what's right for my family as my kids get closer to middle school and my wife reenters the workforce. Do what makes sense for you and your family.

I'm curious as to how money has "never factored into the decision" when you clearly state that you intend to hang it up after 20 years. Maybe you mis-spoke, I don't know. But I can speculate that most guys want to do their 20 and then retire in large part due to the financial security blanket that an AD retirement provides. Why not do 24, 28, or 69 years if it's not about the money? Most guys tell me that they're out at 20 because they have no aspiration to be a non-flying O-6 an up, but mostly because you essentially take a pay-cut the first day you go to work after 20 years. You could be sitting at home collecting half of your base pay and doing nothing, or you can go to work to earn the other 50% plus your other allowances. Why not go somewhere else and earn a good salary on top of the retirement pay?

You're not a sucker for taking the bonus, but you appear to have some mis-conceptions about life on the outside. Who's told you that you're going to spend your airline career playing video games at a crash pad? Was it an AD guy or an airline guy? It sounds like your decision is made, and I applaud you for that and wish you the best of luck. We apparently need more guys to do that (we'll have to wait and see what the final take-rate numbers look like in a month). But I want people to make decsions based on good information, not rumors, and worse yet, not based on emotions.

This is why I "shot the messenger." He's clearly operating with bad data and was attempting to spread that around. Ask yourself this: why would a guy on staff, who's admitted that he's a one-armed paper hanger, engage on forum? Was he at work over the holiday weekend cranking through the applications that he's so overwhelmed with? If he truly cared, he would have been. He also would be making calls and gathering as much quality information as he can to make a better bonus recommendation to his boss for FY15. I'm guessing that those non-takers already have that information and they aren't buying the propaganda.

To address TnkrToad's questions - I don't know why the number of eligibles seems so skewed. I'm also not upset that one community gets a better bonus that others. Maybe A1 decided that they're more desperately needed or maybe they have better representation in the world's largest office building. I do think that the Bonus overall will need to go up next year, dramatically. There are quite a few folks who also beleive it should disappear because they claim that most people who take the bonus would have stayed in anyway. What they're forgetting is that the decision to stay in isn't made on 30 September when your ACP application is due. It's typically made way back when your're a few years out of pilot training. If they take the bonus away in FY15, the effect wouldn't be immediate, but you'd see that pilots who are several years away from being bonus-eligible would better prepare themselves to separate. You're always going to have the ones who'd stay in regardless of pay, and you're always going to have the ones who are going to get out. The bonus is targeted at those who are undecided several years out. Take that carrot away and see what happens.

[BFM this]

ACP take rate so far this year (as of 10 Aug): 56%

It is the lowest take rate since 2002 (47%).

https://access.afpc.af.mil/

All the nerdy [public] AFPC stats you could want.

This discussion seems to repeat itself. And the punchline is usually the same: we won't know the final figures until late October-ish. At that time, AFCrimes will write a puff piece quoting someone at A1 proclaiming that the arrangement of the deck chairs has never been better.