Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

[Bender]

I plan to sign an ARP contract; at this point it will most likely be the RPA cross-flow option to 20 YAS (a choice that merely maximizes "economic rent" already being paid by the USAF).

The MC-12 squadrons have already made the majority of their collective feelings known during the VSP offering. The remaining crew dawgs are living about as much uncertainty as one can find in the rated community these days. There are few left to take the bonus, but those that did not VSP can be expected to take it in some fashion, but there are a handful of known exceptions.

With a number of pilots accepting VSP just prior to their ARP eligibility, the ARP numbers should be slightly bolstered without denoting any consensus shift. This could be quantified, but the only ones with all that data probably don't see the value in understanding it.

Bendy

[matmacwc]

What is your mil and/or aviation background?

Allow me to retort. Answer the question.

Timmmmmmmmaaaaaayyyyy?!?

Edited April 28, 2015 by matmacwc

[TnkrToad]

Looks like AFPC has posted ARP take rates through 27 Apr. It can be found at:

https://access.afpc.af.mil/vbinDMZ/broker.exe?_program=DEMOGPUB.static_reports.sas&_service=pZ1pub1&_debug=0

Overall take rate thus far for FY15 initial eligibles is 44.3% (329 takers out of 743 eligibles). Funny thing is that 283 of those takers signed early contracts in FY14--only 46 new contracts signed for initial pilot eligibles since the bonus details were released a month ago. Bottom line, the response to the new bonus offering seems underwhelming, but five months remain in the FY. The below stats could change dramatically in that time.

Take rates by pilot community are (in ascending order):

Fighter (11F): 35.4%

Bomber (11B): 42.9%

Mobility (11M): 45.5%

SOF (11S): 46.3%

Unmanned (11U): 46.3%

C2ISR (11R): 53.8%

Rescue (11H): 71.4%

Notes:

-- The two communities with the largest numbers of eligibles (11M & 11F) have two of the three lowest take rates thus far

-- The reason for low take rates wouldn't seem to be processing time, since Rescue is already at 71%

TT

[slackline]

I bit, but I'm at school right now anyway, so why not. It's an extra 2 years on top of school commitment, but I'm curious as to why, in Rescue, we have a take rate so much higher than everyone. I love our mission, and I have always worked with good people. We're busy though, and that's not changing anytime soon. Curious... I can't wait to get away from Maxwell...

[Breckey]

I feel that the Huey take rates are driving up the numbers a bit as well. Time away from family (outside of alert) is pretty low and deployments are hard to come by now that the Mi-17 gigs are slowing down. IMO those combine to make a high job satisfaction and high retention rates.

[TnkrToad]

Probably also helps that that the community is small (sets)--only 35 total eligibles from all the rescue communities, so 2 or 3 takers move the needle pretty significantly. The HC-130J helped--4/4 takers; unsurprising, since I'm sure they got initial qual ADSCs. The Rescue community has always had a healthy take rate, though.

Funny thing is, the SOF take rate is pretty low so far, whereas they historically have had a high take rate, too. Seems like they've had a downward trend over the last few years. Cannon effect, perhaps?

[Azimuth]

I bit, but I'm at school right now anyway, so why not. It's an extra 2 years on top of school commitment, but I'm curious as to why, in Rescue, we have a take rate so much higher than everyone. I love our mission, and I have always worked with good people. We're busy though, and that's not changing anytime soon. Curious... I can't wait to get away from Maxwell...

Why wouldn't a Huey driver at Fairchild not take the bonus to be in AETC, live in the Pacific Northwest, and occasionally rescue a SERE student or stranded hiker?

[Homestar]

Couldn't tell from reading the report...does it count FY14 takers who signed extensions to 20 YAS as new contracts?

[Day Man]

Why wouldn't a Huey driver at Fairchild not take the bonus to be in AETC, live in the Pacific Northwest, and occasionally rescue a SERE student or stranded hiker?

Bolded 2 reasons for you.

[HeloDude]

Bolded 2 reasons for you.

And the best kept secret continues...

[panchbarnes]

Spokane is one of the better AF locations out there.

[slackline]

Wife's family is from the area. I love Spokane, but not much chance of ever getting stationed there. I guess I forgot Huey drivers were included in Rescue.

[TnkrToad]

Couldn't tell from reading the report...does it count FY14 takers who signed extensions to 20 YAS as new contracts?

Dunno, but that would be kinda funny if FY14 takers who signed extensions were counted as new contracts:

- 7/8 of the total contracts were already committed via FY14 early contracts

- If a substantial number of the remaining 1/8 were in fact FY14 early contract folks who renegotiated terms, then the take rate since they released the bonus a month ago would look pretty dismal indeed

At 44% take rate, all the ARP program has done is offer extra pay to those who plan to stay anyway.

[Beaver]

Are helo guys getting hired at major airlines?

[Ebony zer]

No but there are opportunities out there flying helos. I'm one of those Huey guys at Fairchild that hasn't taken the bonus. The problem is after Spokane there's not really any good assignments and you'll eventually end up in global strike.

[scoobs]

Vandenberg is nice.

[Breckey]

Vandenberg shut down in 08. Also Malmstrom is the best thing going in Hueys IMO. Especially with the current leadership and no alert.

[Learjetter]

Saw the FY15 ARP take rate chart (on AFPC personnel statistics site, static reports section).

Fascinatingly dismal.

[ViperStud]

Last year I would have told tanker toad - I told you so. This year, I don't care. Prosecution rests.

[Homestar]

Saw the FY15 ARP take rate chart (on AFPC personnel statistics site, static reports section).

Fascinatingly dismal.

Unlike most years the program was released this year with months for people to make decisions. I would hold judgement until September and see what the rate is then.

[ATIS]

Hey Huey bubba's....stop flying overhead North/Southbound 7th Street NE every night at 2300...waking the kid.

ATIS

[di1630]

Unlike most years the program was released this year with months for people to make decisions. I would hold judgement until September and see what the rate is then.

Yeah but hopefully people are smart enough to know each day they delay the decision it costs them $68.49....there is incentive to sign early, so I'd be surprised if a ton of people waited until the last minute.

[TnkrToad]

Last year I would have told tanker toad - I told you so. This year, I don't care. Prosecution rests.

Dude,

You're right--$25k/year to 20 YAS isn't enough to convince smart folks to stay on AD. Congrats. What I was trying to get at--obviously unsuccessfully--were my three primary gripes with last year's program--all of which tend to indicate that our rated managers don't seem to know what they're doing:

1) Offering enhanced options to 11Fs, but not to 11Ss (who have been crazy busy since before I was commissioned) & 11Hs (read CSAR guys, who continue to get kicked in the teeth) made no sense. 11Fs weren't the only pilot community that was undermanned, but they got special treatment while other (in my anecdotal experience) communities that were even worse off got offered nothing extra. I have yet to hear a viable rationale for that decision, but fortunately it's been remedied this year. Gotta give credit where it's due.

2) If (as some have asserted on this forum) the bonus has no real impact on people's decision to stay in or get out and essentially everyone who takes the five-year bonus stays in until they hit 20yrs, then (here I go using logic again) I personally don't understand what the economic case is for offering the bonus out to 20 YAS. If the bonus only snares a handful of fence-sitters, but costs the AF a boatload of cash (both fence sitters and those who were going to stay anyway take the bonus) then the marginal cost per fence sitter might very well be astronomical. If the Air Force is willing to shell out the cash, I won't begrudge anyone who takes it. I get it that the bonus adds a degree of predictability, which helps the bean counters. Intuitively, it seems to me that rated managers are focused too intently on predictability--huge financial outlays to convince a small number of fence-sitters--while they miss the root problem, which is nonsensical rated management policy (officer flyers getting deployed to jobs that enlisted non-flyers could do, failing to focus cuts via VSP/RIF where the "fat" really is, etc.--the list is endless). While I'm happy to be shown otherwise, misguided personnel policies seem very much still in effect.

3) 11M manning is obviously something I care (and thus know more) about personally. There are plenty of others on this forum who can speak to 11F issues. The mid-90s year groups have been worse-manned for 11Ms than they have for 11Fs since they graduated from SUPT, but there was no special effort to retain individuals from those year groups. The '95 commissioning year group, for instance, has substantially more 11Fs than 11Ms. Can't wait to see how the next few O-6 boards go, as the Air Force casts around for future mobility senior leaders and realizes they're all working for United/American/Delta/Southwest. Again, rated managers--I would hope--are aware of this pilot bathtub (particularly in the O-5 11M community), but all they've seemed to do is widen and deepen that bathtub. Airline hiring is and will take a substantial toll on the mobility community for the foreseeable future. Considering that TRANSCOM is the only COCOM that's always been led by an Air Force officer, it doesn't bode well that we're failing to retain/train our mobility talent. Call me crazy for thinking this might be a problem for our service and our nation.

In sum, my gripe is with rated managers--of which few seem to lurk on this forum. Those who have been on this forum and advocated for rated managers' decisions have yet (IMHO) to offer rational explanations for the concerns voiced above--or pretty much any other flyer's concerns. If someone with insight into HAF/A1M's thinking can chime in, I'm sure we'd all benefit. I'm not holding my breath, though.

Fly safe,

TT

[Breckey]

Hey Huey bubba's....stop flying overhead North/Southbound 7th Street NE every night at 2300...waking the kid.

ATIS

Stop hating the sound of freedom getting some NVG hours. Also wait until the summer when the land times are close to 0100 due to the EECT not being until almost 2230.

[Bender]

Yeah but hopefully people are smart enough to know each day they delay the decision it costs them $68.49....there is incentive to sign early, so I'd be surprised if a ton of people waited until the last minute.

Explain this for caveman Bender please.

Bendy