Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

[TnkrToad]

13 minutes ago, Duck said:

Wow. 48.5%. That actually surprises me that it is that high. I believe they say 65% is target though.


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Gonna be pretty difficult for Big Blue to spin this positively. Average take rate for past 5 FYs = 64%:

- FY11: 70%

- FY12: 67%

- FY13: 68%

- FY14: 59%

- FY15: 55%

I'm no math major, but 49% seems substantially worse than 64%. The take rate was 65% or higher for 11 years, from FY03 through FY13. There's a downward trend, even though Big Blue has steadily expanded the number of AFSCs who could take the $25k/yr bonus to 20 yrs aviation service option (used to be just 11Fs and I think RPA drivers, as I recall, that got the enhanced bonus option). The problem for the AF is that, while take rates are decreasing, numbers of eligibles are increasing. There were 750 FY16 pilot eligibles. There'll be 820 pilot eligibles next year. What will be interesting to read in the FY16 report is the Overall Loss Breakdown--between separations, retirements, permanent DNIF, & promotion to O-6, how many pilots did we lose? I suspect the Air Force's total pilot inventory will have shrunk yet again this year.

TT

[Jaded]

It is possible that the line is not linear as well, as more and more people have references from individuals at each airline. 

One thing I noticed last year was that the number of eligible slowly decreased as the year went on. I don't understand what the mechanism was for that, but it would have the effect of slightly increasing the take rate percentage. I did not keep a good track of it this year to see if the same thing happened. Obviously there are incentives at AFPC to make it look like it isn't as bad as it actually is. Someone should keep a close eye on that number as this year goes on, as this could very well be the year that breaks the current system. 

[matmacwc]

I was a phase III UPT instructor around 07-08, what I remember is substantially smaller classes and not many fighters dropped.  I remember picking up a track select of 3 T-38 dudes per class for a while, this will come home to roost soon as well.

[Clark Griswold]

This is the AF:

[Lord Ratner]

It is possible that the line is not linear as well, as more and more people have references from individuals at each airline. 
One thing I noticed last year was that the number of eligible slowly decreased as the year went on. I don't understand what the mechanism was for that, but it would have the effect of slightly increasing the take rate percentage. I did not keep a good track of it this year to see if the same thing happened. Obviously there are incentives at AFPC to make it look like it isn't as bad as it actually is. Someone should keep a close eye on that number as this year goes on, as this could very well be the year that breaks the current system. 

I may be wrong, but I do not believe it accounts for people who quit during the window, which is why the number of eligible members drops. So if you 3 day opt out of a 365 during the window, you would drop out of the eligible pool.

It makes the numbers look better, which is scary considering how bad they look


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[Harvey]

8 hours ago, Duck said:

Wow. 48.5%. That actually surprises me that it is that high. I believe they say 65% is target though.


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So for C-17s, the number looks like it will be slightly over 50%, which surprises me as well, since I know very few people who talk about taking the bonus. I guess the sport bitching sessions around the squadron, where you start to wonder If there will be anyone left, doesn't necessarily translate into reality. Are the bulk of the '04 year group bonus takers already on staff?

[Duck]

Stockholm syndrome...


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[Gazmo]

Give it another year. It'll be less than 35%. The only thing in Big Blue's favor is that coordinating the ideal exit strategy is tricky.

[Snooter]

So interesting thought, I would suggest to big blue that they offer a bonus for continuation to 15 years with early retirement on the end of that, why haven't they considered that?  I mean aren't they always worried about the near term threat?  That buys them three years to get the next group of leaders to figure it out.  What does the group think?

[Gazmo]

The problem is Big Blue's head is too big to fit through a hangar door and by the time someone without their head up their arse figures out what's going on (Fingers), it's too late. Any fix.at this point requires drastic measures to be taken most likely not approved by congress for a while. Remember, this is all 15 years in the making.

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[ViperStud]

1 hour ago, Gazmo said:

The problem is Big Blue's head is too big to fit through a hangar door and by the time someone without their head up their arse figures out what's going on (Fingers), it's too late. Any fix.at this point requires drastic measures to be taken most likely not approved by congress for a while. Remember, this is all 15 years in the making.

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This. In my corner of the world in the ANG, the rumored tech bonuses are stalling and rumors are circulating about more AGR slots. The problem is that rumors don't recruit people, actual positions with $ tied to them recruit people. Even our leadership has flat-out stated that the train needs to full-up crash into us before meaningful change will happen. 

The catch-22 is this: dudes with birds and stars on their shoulders need to actually say "no" and cut classes. They need to Ops CNX or MND lines regularly to show we are broken. Doing this will crush their metrics, however, and hurt their chances of promotion. It's in leadership's best personal interest to chug along on fumes rather than let the system start to show cracks, which is ironically required to enact any meaningful change. Why is NGB going to throw a boatload of cash or AD going to commit a bunch of billets (AGRs) to a problem they've yet so see can't be handled with current means/measures?  This catch-22 exists in both the RC and AD and it takes a truly dynamic leader to break the mold and act on foresight rather than just react to problems. We don't have a lot of those kind of leaders, and the ones who fit the bill likely got out to work for less dysfunctional companies. 

[Snooter]

I think I know now how the poor people on the Titanic felt...  All I'm asking for is a life jacket...

[Seriously]

On 10/9/2016 at 2:39 AM, ViperStud said:

The catch-22 is this: dudes with birds and stars on their shoulders need to actually say "no" and cut classes. 

This did happen across UPT bases in 2013/14.

[Fuzz]

Looks like they found the answer to pilot retention, which if this is their idea for incentiving people to stay I'd be running for the door also. https://www.jqpublicblog.com/puzzle-palace-chronicles-air-staff-attacks-fighter-pilot-shortage-offering-meaningless-awards/

 

[matmacwc]

Effing ridiculous, they really don't get it.

[Swizzle]

Short term, perhaps trivial, culture fix attempt; and a long term attempt at more thin strats to promote/retain/recognize fighter pilots...nothing more I ponder

[Swizzle]

The best part is the fighter pilots now have more taskers and award packages to draft removing more cockpit time on a thinly-manned force...yes we've shot our own foot in some regard with this "fix"...or perhaps our new Orderly rooms will absorb this

[F16Deuce]

[Sprkt69]

[matmacwc]

4 hours ago, Swizzle said:

Short term, perhaps trivial, culture fix attempt; and a long term attempt at more thin strats to promote/retain/recognize fighter pilots...nothing more I ponder

Do you free base the cool aid or mainline it?

[ViperStud]

Heads up, big blue - it's about money, QOL, time at home and stability. You lose on all counts. More medals? GFY

[sqwatch]

I am as salty as most here, but I see nothing wrong with what they are trying to do. It should go without saying that this isn't the silver bullet that will stop the hemorrhaging of fighter personnel, but it's better than no action. I agree, real action would be allowing busses full of morally loose women to frequent the o clubs again (or even re-instate o clubs), but that won't happen again in my lifetime. Gotta set realistic goals. This also will be seen by outsiders to the community - an attempt at reinstating that lost sense of respect and prestige we've all bitched about. I see this as a net positive, and a hit generator on Tony's site.


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[17D_guy]

Isn't there already an award for Fighter Pilots?  I could have sworn I neg-replied on one when I was doing my tour in a CAG pit.

[MooseAg03]

I think the main push back is that this just generates more queep to distract from the mission. More recognition is a great thing, but we can always count on Big Blue to fail in the execution. This will mean taskers and deadlines to front line supervisors filling out yet more 1206's when they could be focusing on the mission and tactics. Instead they will be worried about finding the right acronym from the latest wing admin guide that is the correct number of characters for the bullet. This is why good people continue to run for the door.


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[Duck]

Nothing's gonna get better while the current crop of O-6 to O-8s are around.


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