Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

[di1630]

I heard from a 2-star that the USAF knows stop loss would be a catastrophe. Reasoning, they'd temporarily retain some pilots but overall it would cause more to leave in the long run.

I highly doubt we see it.




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[Sprkt69]

5 hours ago, di1630 said:

I heard from a 2-star that the USAF knows stop loss would be a catastrophe. Reasoning, they'd temporarily retain some pilots but overall it would cause more to leave in the long run.

I highly doubt we see it.




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Just because its the dumbest thing in the world, doesn't mean Big Blue isn't going to try it or at least push for it

[Gazmo]

It may be their only choice.

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[ThreeHoler]

It may be their only choice.

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The Obi Wan principle?


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[Gazmo]

The Obi Wan principle?


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Correct, you are.

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[BashiChuni]

i love watching the world burn so im rooting for stop loss

[Duck]

i love watching the world burn so im rooting for stop loss

After I separate.


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[ViperStud]

44 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

i love watching the world burn so im rooting for stop loss

This. I kinda feel like the only only way some O-8+ types could ever end up with egg on their faces is if we are forced to stop-loss people we were just paying to get out. 

Alas, I know that accountability does not exist at the rank of 0-6 and above (Rat, Bull Post, Hastings, etc), so the end result would just be some good bros getting held against their will due to shitty timing. That, and the asshat leadership that got us here will continue to pin on stars.  Thank Allah I'm already in the guard. 

[matmacwc]

1 hour ago, ViperStud said:

This. I kinda feel like the only only way some O-8+ types could ever end up with egg on their faces is if we are forced to stop-loss people we were just paying to get out. 

Alas, I know that accountability does not exist at the rank of 0-6 and above (Rat, Bull Post, Hastings, etc), so the end result would just be some good bros getting held against their will due to shitty timing. That, and the asshat leadership that got us here will continue to pin on stars.  Thank Allah I'm already in the guard. 

I cannot wait until you are an O-7.  Mark my words asshat.

[ViperStud]

31 minutes ago, matmacwc said:

I cannot wait until you are an O-7.  Mark my words asshat.

Do you really think I can be PC enough to accomplish this, even if it was a long term goal?  I'll take your bet; put some real money on it.  (Details offline)

[Dogs-N-Guns]

Pilot crisis solved!

https://www.defensenews.com/articles/darpa-banks-on-robot-copilots-to-help-quell-military-pilot-shortage

[billy pilgrim]

On 11/18/2016 at 1:23 PM, Dogs-N-Guns said:

Pilot crisis solved!

https://www.defensenews.com/articles/darpa-banks-on-robot-copilots-to-help-quell-military-pilot-shortage

But can robots make corn??

[Snooter]

I wonder if they will plan the Gp Christmas party?

[SurelySerious]

I wonder if they will plan the Gp Christmas party?

Put that deep learning algorithm to work.

[ClearedHot]

I have not looked at the AFPC site lately...because I am RETIRED, but I heard today the retention rates remain ungood.  In the 11S community the target ACP takes rate is 64%, the break even is 52% and the current take rate is 32%....and falling.

 

[Jaded]

I thought that 11S had traditionally been a bright spot. What changed? 

[icohftb]

Any guess as to when the new ACP will be released? understand they are still waiting on the budget to be approved?

[ClearedHot]

29 minutes ago, Jaded said:

I thought that 11S had traditionally been a bright spot. What changed? 

A reflection of endless deployments and some VERY caustic folks getting promoted.  One person in particular did a lot of damage, he refused to let a Gunship EP go to the B-2 program...so the guy got out.  He refused to let a C-146 guy apply to the U-2 program...so the guy is getting out.  He also refused to let a CV-22 Flight Lead apply for TPS...so that guy got out. 

At one point earlier this year they were 1/14 on gunship pilots.  I know the shortage of 11Fs has allowed some former TAMI folks to flow back to fighters in the guard and reserve, the 11S community lost several patches to that situation. 

As some point this shortage is really going to snowball and require drastic measures.

[FlyinGrunt]

Cannon doesn't help either.

[Ram]

3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

As some point this shortage is really going to snowball and require drastic measures.

This statement above, plus you said "get out while you can" just a few months back.

 

Cm'on, CH...show us your cards.

[Mark1]

3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

A reflection of endless deployments and some VERY caustic folks getting promoted.  One person in particular did a lot of damage, he refused to let a Gunship EP go to the B-2 program...so the guy got out.  He refused to let a C-146 guy apply to the U-2 program...so the guy is getting out.  He also refused to let a CV-22 Flight Lead apply for TPS...so that guy got out. 

At one point earlier this year they were 1/14 on gunship pilots.  I know the shortage of 11Fs has allowed some former TAMI folks to flow back to fighters in the guard and reserve, the 11S community lost several patches to that situation. 

As some point this shortage is really going to snowball and require drastic measures.

On the gunship side, just think where they'd be if the situation hadn't been partially relieved by the fact that they could consolidate 3 squadrons into 2 near the height of the hemorrhaging.  

No worries though, AFSOC.  Usually when personnel issues lead to failures downrange for the gunship it doesn't turn out to be a strategic blunder that makes front page news for months on end...

[TnkrToad]

14 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I have not looked at the AFPC site lately...because I am RETIRED, but I heard today the retention rates remain ungood.  In the 11S community the target ACP takes rate is 64%, the break even is 52% and the current take rate is 32%....and falling.

 

FWIW, the final FY16 ACP report still has not been released, so theoretically, the numbers could change. Per the AFPC website, though, the overall FY 16 11S take rate as of 3 Oct was 50%. Regarding gunships in particular, the take rate for AC-130H/J/U/W combined was 23.5% (4 takers out of 17 eligibles). I'm no math major, and others can comment on statistical significance, but this seems pretty bad.

What I'm looking forward to in the final report is rest of the data, beyond just take rates: how many retirements/separations has each community experienced?

Getting back to my own 11M lane: There's been some talk in this forum about a pending 11M crisis. It's unarguably already here. The point of the bonus is to keep experienced folks on property, IOT to fill leadership and staff positions. Underproduction of 11Ms in the mid-90s year groups, combined with current-day hiring, means slim pickin's right now for current/future mobility O-6s/ future senior leaders. Personnel management buffoonery/endless deployments/backfilling other AFSCs/etc. has likewise thinned out late-90s & early 2000s year groups & made it really unlikely those still on AD will stay past 20. Those reaching bonus eligibility are somewhere around the '05 year group; if this year's take rate (and the broader trend over the past few years) is any indication), they sure don't seem inclined to stay on AD. I have trouble seeing how the 11M is/will be healthy in any year group that's hit bonus and/or retirement eligibility.

If the theoretically "fat" heavy community is as hurting for experience as I think it is, I can only imagine how much worse it is for undermanned communities like 11Ss.  

TT

 

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, TnkrToad said:

FWIW, the final FY16 ACP report still has not been released, so theoretically, the numbers could change. Per the AFPC website, though, the overall FY 16 11S take rate as of 3 Oct was 50%. Regarding gunships in particular, the take rate for AC-130H/J/U/W combined was 23.5% (4 takers out of 17 eligibles). I'm no math major, and others can comment on statistical significance, but this seems pretty bad.

What I'm looking forward to in the final report is rest of the data, beyond just take rates: how many retirements/separations has each community experienced?

 

 

I am very curious to see the end report as well.  I heard the 32% figure from a very senior 11S just yesterday, perhaps he was lumping several key 11S career field together?  With gunships at 25% someone else in the 11S community must have superb retention to get the community total to 50%.  On the 4/17 gunship, as I recall 2 of the 4 who took the bonus already had additional commitment for going ACJ.  Regardless, it takes a long time to build a Gunship IP/EP and losing 75% of a year group is going to have second and third order effects.

[Snooter]

2 hours ago, TnkrToad said:

Getting back to my own 11M lane: There's been some talk in this forum about a pending 11M crisis. It's unarguably already here. The point of the bonus is to keep experienced folks on property, IOT to fill leadership and staff positions. Underproduction of 11Ms in the mid-90s year groups, combined with current-day hiring, means slim pickin's right now for current/future mobility O-6s/ future senior leaders. Personnel management buffoonery/endless deployments/backfilling other AFSCs/etc. has likewise thinned out late-90s & early 2000s year groups & made it really unlikely those still on AD will stay past 20. Those reaching bonus eligibility are somewhere around the '05 year group; if this year's take rate (and the broader trend over the past few years) is any indication), they sure don't seem inclined to stay on AD. I have trouble seeing how the 11M is/will be healthy in any year group that's hit bonus and/or retirement eligibility.

If the theoretically "fat" heavy community is as hurting for experience as I think it is, I can only imagine how much worse it is for undermanned communities like 11Ss.  

TT

 

You forgot to mention that 2500 hours of international multi eng heavy jet is pretty much just two ops tours.  Cross check that with hiring mins and the threat of a staff tour to backfill Joe Fighter Jock's staff billet and you've got a recipe for a pilot shortage.  Everyone you talk to seems to be looking for the nearest exit...

[TnkrToad]

59 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

With gunships at 25% someone else in the 11S community must have superb retention to get the community total to 50%. 

Per the non-final numbers, the MC-130 community brought the AFSOC average up. All but two (14/16--87.5%) of the MC-130H/J/P pilots took the bonus. The two non-takers were both Talon drivers. The CV-22 and U-28 communities also marginally brought up the average; they were both 58%.

Bottom line, given only 78 total 11S eligibles, even a handful of folks extra taking the bonus skewed the numbers significantly.

The only other AFSOC community not already mentioned is interesting. There were 21 C-145 (I assume a combo of NSAV & 6th SOS) eligibles. There were more C-145 eligibles than there were in any other AFSOC community. Their take rate was just 33%. Not sure what to make of this (again, go back to statistical significance discussion), but doesn't appear folks are all that excited about the OSA for SOF mission. That, or they saw the opportunity to take all that flying time to the civilian sector. If the C-145 numbers include the 6th SOS, the AvFID mission must be really suffering. 

Lemme guess--AFSOC will take more 11Ms from AMC to flesh out their ranks in the NSAV & 6 SOS missions . . .

TT