Aviation Continuation Pay (ACP - The Bonus)

[Karl Hungus]

2 hours ago, Klepto said:

Seeing as they have plans to shut the flood gates by lobbying to rescind the 1500/750 hour rule and increase pilot training in 50 different ways from Sunday I’ve personally concluded that they’ve found it more attainable to solve the Airline shortage, which they see as the root cause of our shortage... and that will be good enough. It’s a shrewd move. They’re going to end the airline hiring spree, flanking us on the left while we’re all looking right and telling them they suck.

Agree with most of what you said, but I don’t think changing the 1500 hour rule will be as easy as AF management thinks, nor would it “shut the flood gates” for hiring at the majors.  It would make it way easier for the regionals to hire civilian pilots at subpar wages and benefits, prolonging that failing business model for a while.  Being able to adequately staff the regionals might result in less regional flying brought to mainline, but Delta (CS100 and 717), for example, has already brought quite a bit of regional flying in house.  Doesn’t even come close to hiring for the staggering number of retirements at the majors.  They’ll still hire a ton of mil pilots, whether the AF likes it or not.

I too don’t think AF managers are stupid... nor would I call them “shrewd”.  I think they’re piss-poor at management, and basically are incompetent at effectively running a large organization.  They certainly aren’t “leaders”, despite referring to themselves as such.  I do agree that they simply don’t care.  I know the pro-management frauds on this board would have you believe otherwise, but the AF really doesn’t get their management right most of the time.

[di1630]

Was given this with word that the official announcement will be today:

So not much new, in fact seems like a retrograde of good deals from the 1 year offered last year. I have no skin in the game on this. Curious the thoughts of younger guys. My prediction is this doesn’t do much to stop the bleeding.

[MooseAg03]

It’s only making my decision easier. I’m no longer valued by this organization, why would I continue to punish myself for lower pay and QOL?

[Guest]

So not much new, in fact seems like a retrograde of good deals from the 1 year offered last year. I have no skin in the game on this. Curious the thoughts of younger guys. My prediction is this doesn’t do much to stop the bleeding.

Disappointed to see the 1 and 2 year options go away. I’m not ready to punch yet, but don’t want an ADSC that would prevent me from 7-day opting a shitty PCS.

[di1630]

It’s only making my decision easier. I’m no longer valued by this organization, why would I continue to punish myself for lower pay and QOL?

Yeah, I just ran some quick numbers vs airline pay and it doesn’t look good for big blue here.

I figure a major at 12 yrs + bonus and avg BAH is pulling ~$159k

Incidentally a 3rd year 737 F.O. at Delta is ~$159k before 401k / profit sharing.

[sling-it-17]

I have to say this seems like a step backwards to me also. I mean it seems like they would want to get ahead of the mobility pilot shortage looming. The 1-2 yr options gave some flexibility, but i can understand why they don’t like that as much but if your gonna take something away atleast replace it with something! Maybe a choice of assignment location for a tour or no non flying deployment clause. Something...smh! The AF can’t even get out of its own way! All they need to do now is raise flight pay for the first bracket by 15$ per month, problem solved! Haha! Smh! So sad...

[Homestar]

On 4/24/2018 at 10:39 PM, Majestik Møøse said:

From the testimony: “This budget boosts pipeline capacity, expands pilot training and addresses experience shortfalls, continues incentive pay and bonuses, improves administrative support at the squadron level, and funds flying hours to executable levels.”

Continues, not increases. I refuse to believe that Air Force leadership doesn’t understand market capitalism. I also refuse to believe that they can’t see the immense cost savings involved in not having to train replacements to backfill departing pilots. I really think it’s as simple as bureaucratic pride and not wanting to cede organizational control and influence to the line pilot peons.

That’s because we have people getting up in front of the Chief and SECAF and saying it’s not about the money. 

It is about the money. It’s also about other stuff. But it is 100% about the money. And that’s ok. 

[sling-it-17]

22 minutes ago, Homestar said:

That’s because we have people getting up in front of the Chief and SECAF and saying it’s not about the money. 

It is about the money. It’s also about other stuff. But it is 100% about the money. And that’s ok. 

Totally agree! The money is the ONLY thing you can count on, everything else is built on hope. I hope the AF gets turned around but unfortunately there is risk it will not get get better. 

[norskman]

9 hours ago, bronxbomber252 said:

Was given this with word that the official announcement will be today:

Not much love for the RW 11H bros, went from "tier 3" to "tier 4." I wouldn't be surprised if next year they don't offer us one at all and call our bluff. We are pretty expendable in the AF's perspective. I predict a MASS exodus In the next five years of RW 11Hs. 

[Breckey]

If there are no fighter pilots then there is nobody to rescue and no need for RW pilots. It’s a win-win from the AFs perspective.

[nunya]

1 minute ago, Breckey said:

If there are no fighter pilots then there is nobody to rescue and no need for RW pilots.

I knew I was second rate in Big Blue's eyes, but I at least thought you'd come save my ass!  

[SFG]

Latest testimony on the Pilot Shortage (5 minute vid).

 

 

[17D_guy]

1 hour ago, Klepto said:

Latest testimony on the Pilot Shortage (5 minute vid).

 

 

Watching that makes me think that Welch and James didn't seem to get along as well as Fingers and Wilson.

[raimius]

8 hours ago, di1630 said:

So not much new, in fact seems like a retrograde of good deals from the 1 year offered last year. I have no skin in the game on this. Curious the thoughts of younger guys. My prediction is this doesn’t do much to stop the bleeding.

Yeah, the AF is so short on pilots that it just reduced the bonus for some of them...

Is $500/yr going to make a huge difference?  Probably not, but it certainly sends the message that Big Blue really doesn't care that much about experience retention.

[SFG]

Don’t expect any changes next year.

FY19NDAA House Markup

“The following sections of title 37, United States Code, are amended by striking ‘‘December 31, 2018’’ and inserting ‘‘December 31, 2019’’:
...
(3) Section 334(i), relating to special aviation incentive pay and bonus authorities for officers.”

[FourFans]

What I hear is a focus on numbers, not quality.  I think Goldfein was about to get there, but was cut off.

All of us should be concerned about the quality of the fighting force.  We're too small to sacrifice having the sharpest sword.  Right now we are hemorrhaging all our experience due to retention.  We can fix the production, but all those kids are going to have to relearn knowledge that resided in the experienced pilots who got forced out by QOL.  Some of those kids will die needlessly.  In fact, it's already happening (reference multiple crashes in SW Asia).

I am a good IP.  I want to stay and make a difference.  I would happily sit in an FTU and teach if I didn't have the constant threat of a 365.  I refuse to give the big blue the reigns and sign up for more if they refuse to respect the talent that they have.  If the only thing keeping me in (in the face of that 365 threat) is money, I'm out.  Simply.  Remove the 1500/750 hour requirement, and I think you'll simply see more young pilots who only got one ops tour punch ASAP.  Retention will only get worse.

All the talk about the airlines and production being the root causes belies the fact that the USAF "leaders" have given up on keeping quality pilots because the solutions are too hard (from a staff perspective) to implement.  That comes from a staff who has drawn the same conclusion.  The system promotes it's own, and the men and women in those staffs got there by self promoting.  In short, they are not a part of the pool of individuals fearful of 365's and family hardship because they have already placed career above everything else...that's how they got where they are.  So clearly it's the airline's fault, because that's a metric they can measure and fix WAY easier vs telling CENTCOM to sod off about having a 365 Chief of Wing Exercises. 

They're taking the easiest road instead of fixing the root cause: Senior leadership from O-6 and above are disconnected from the line executors of the main mission of the USAF.

P.S. Go to any airline hiring site and dig in, you'll find that they have hundreds if not thousands of QUALIFIED candidates that are not getting called or are being rejected at the interview because the airlines cannot afford to sacrifice on quality.  I don't see that changing, even if the 1500 hour rule gets rescinded, especially as the USAF continues to produce quality pilots for them.  Congrats USAF, you want to make the crowd in Delta's waiting room bigger by adding younger civilian dudes.  Well done. USAF experienced pilots will still often jump ahead.  High quality experience counts.

Edited April 27, 2018 by FourFans130
clarification

[Krypto]

What are the pros/cons to taking the lump sum option? Is it more advantageous for tax reasons to take the lump sum?

[Champ Kind]

What are the pros/cons to taking the lump sum option? Is it more advantageous for tax reasons to take the lump sum?

Tax question aside, don’t you stand to gain more in compound interest by taking a lump sum and immediately investing the whole amount versus contributing your installment annually?

[Guest]

Tax question aside, don’t you stand to gain more in compound interest by taking a lump sum and immediately investing the whole amount versus contributing your installment annually?

Social security tax phases out at 128.4K this year. For married folks, the tax bracket under 165k is 22, at which point it goes to 24% up to 315k. The lump sum will almost certainly help you save on taxes and you’ll have the benefits of compounding interest.

[nunya]

On 4/27/2018 at 9:22 AM, Champ Kind said:

Tax question aside, don’t you stand to gain more in compound interest by taking a lump sum and immediately investing the whole amount versus contributing your installment annually?

I think the payments option is almost always better.  

*Spreadsheet removed.

 

Edited April 28, 2018 by nunya

[SocialD]

14 hours ago, Klepto said:

Latest testimony on the Pilot Shortage (5 minute vid).

Man, they're still attacking that 1,500 hour requirement.  In 2012 I was a first year regional guy and my base pay was $19,000 ($21/hr).  At the same airline, it's now $37,000 ($41/hr) + $17,500 if you stay a year (somewhat pro-rated if you leave early).  If nothing else this rule has forced the regionals to pay a basic living wage.  This is a good thing...let's hope the military is not successful in killing this requirement. 

[HossHarris]

 

I think the payments option is almost always better.  

Lump Sum - Payments.xlsx

You have a lot of odd assumptions in your spreadsheet. 

 

And I would expect $390k to do a little better than $200k

Edited April 27, 2018 by HossHarris

[nunya]

What odd assumptions?  Without tax considerations, I didn't really make any assumptions.  The growth rate is adjustable.

I was just showing that the single upfront payment growth isn't enough to keep up with the smaller payments.

Edited April 27, 2018 by nunya

[Guest]

What odd assumptions?  Without tax considerations, I didn't really make any assumptions.  The growth rate is adjustable.
I was just showing that the single upfront payment growth isn't enough to keep up with the smaller payments.

In the past there’s been no reduced total amount with the up front option. The last time they offered it for the fighter guys, it was 112.5k up front with 9 annual payments of 12.5k. That’s clearly a better option than 9 payments of 25k. Are you suggesting that the 7-9 year lump payment 100k option means forgoing the remaining 110-170k???

[nunya]

I looked for more information than what's in the posted graphic, but didn't find the source document.  Is this more complex than an A or B choice?  From the graphic, I read the 11F AvB as either (A) $35K/yr for 7-9 years, or (B) $100K right now.  If there's more to it, I'd love to see the actual options.