Promotion and PRF Information

[bennynova]

Someone care to explain the math?

if 70% are DP and near 100% promotion rate, then the remaining 30% are Ps and in order to get to 93% promotion rate, 75% of Ps would have to be promoted .... Or a total of (23/30)% 

 

Not sure where the above 28% up from 20% is coming from (unless you mean that 28% of ABZ Ps were promoted)

[Bode]

 

My OG was 20 of 30 eligibles. Puts it right at 67%.

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Your operations group only had a 67 % promotion rate??

 

isnt the overall promotion rate 95%

and weren't there 75% DPs, meaning that around 23 of your 30 should have had DPs??

I will do some asking around but that is the word from my CC. I will try to get more specifics tomorrow.

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[Duck]

Those numbers aren't jiving. We had 100% out of around 12-15 eligible a IPZ and one pass over who requested it to the board.

[AlphaMikeFoxtrot]

28 minutes ago, bennynova said:

Someone care to explain the math?

if 70% are DP and near 100% promotion rate, then the remaining 30% are Ps and in order to get to 93% promotion rate, 75% of Ps would have to be promoted .... Or a total of (23/30)% 

 

Not sure where the above 28% up from 20% is coming from (unless you mean that 28% of ABZ Ps were promoted)

I'm no mathematician nor do I claim to be.  These are the numbers as reported by AFPC.  I phoned a friend today and got them since MyPers does not have them posted online yet; even though they so graciously direct non-selects to check out how competitive their board was.  Unfortunately I do not have the spreadsheet in front of me but I will attempt to explain.  A DP does not necessarily equal a promotion for an individual.  There are rare occurrences that do not lead to a promotion.  Those numbers did not sink into my grey matter so I will not speculate on them.  Additionally the remainder of the pool does not equal a P.  There are some DNPs.  Basically, the 5% you're looking for could be made up in the DPs not promoting, the DNPs, as well as whatever other outliers are considered in their formula.  I dug pretty deep today to capture the data, compared the Day 66 mesage from 2014 (75% DP allocation) to the 2015 message (70%) as well as looked at where the swing occurred.  The reduction in DPs allocated were made up in a greater percentage of Ps promoting this year i.e. they left more up to the board.  

I will take better (actual) notes tomorrow and provide better data though I'm fairly confident what I reported is what AFPC is reporting.  I'm getting old and my mind is starting to fail me.  PM me your .mil and I'd be glad to send you the document.

Duck…glad you guys did well.  We had 22/32 selected, pretty sure Lstcause and I are at the same place.

[ThreeHoler]

48 minutes ago, bennynova said:

Someone care to explain the math?

if 70% are DP and near 100% promotion rate, then the remaining 30% are Ps and in order to get to 93% promotion rate, 75% of Ps would have to be promoted .... Or a total of (23/30)% 

 

Not sure where the above 28% up from 20% is coming from (unless you mean that 28% of ABZ Ps were promoted)

Assume 2,500 eligibles, therefore 2,325 total promotable at 93% rate. Assume no DNPs. At 70% DP rate, 1,750 get a DP. Assume 100% promotion for DPs for simplicity. The remaining pool is 2,325-1,750=575 eligible with a P. 575/2500=23% of the total promoted had a P. 575/750=76% of those with a P were promoted.

[AlphaMikeFoxtrot]

2 minutes ago, ThreeHoler said:

Assume 2,500 eligibles, therefore 2,325 total promotable at 93% rate. Assume no DNPs. At 70% DP rate, 1,750 get a DP. Assume 100% promotion for DPs for simplicity. The remaining pool is 2,325-1,750=575 eligible with a P. 575/2500=23% of the total promoted had a P. 575/750=76% of those with a P were promoted.

Pretty sure that's the math benny used, his question was why the 23% vs the reported 28% of Ps promoted.  That's the 5% I attempted to address with DNPs and DPs not selected.  5% seems a bit high for those rare pools but may be accurate.

[bennynova]

7 minutes ago, AlphaMikeFoxtrot said:

Pretty sure that's the math benny used, his question was why the 23% vs the reported 28% of Ps promoted.  That's the 5% I attempted to address with DNPs and DPs not selected.  5% seems a bit high for those rare pools but may be accurate.

I think we are all on the same page, I just read your post to have different meaning than you meant.

i would have worded it that 28% of those packages promoted were Ps.

i wasn't worried about 23% vs 28%... I thought you were saying that only 28% of the P packages  were promoted.

 

 

[Duck]

Okay that's what I read too. Meaning if you had a P you only had a 28% chance at promotion.

We may have done well with O-4s but we sucked at the O-5 board and I don't see it getting any better..

[Jaded]

Good info for those non-school selects on the fence at their 10 year point.

[ThreeHoler]

Okay that's what I read too. Meaning if you had a P you only had a 28% chance at promotion.

We may have done well with O-4s but we sucked at the O-5 board and I don't see it getting any better..

Last year's O-5 board or are you seeing the future for this year's board?

[Duck]

Ha ha both...

[AlphaMikeFoxtrot]

Turns out I am old and forgetful. 

Accurate numbers as promised:

2015 IPZ 92.7% APZ 20.3%

2014 IPZ 91.8% APZ 28.7%

I confused the pilot IPZ P w/SOS rate of 78% in 2015 and 71% in 2014 with the APZ rates in my earlier posts. Similar increases were shown in other career fields as well for this category. I apologize for the confusion. Hopefully this helps clear it up. 

[bennynova]

Very interesting that APZ was lower this year than last

i thought with the new direction to promote best qualified regardless of promotion zone would have led to higher APZ numbers

 

 

[Whitman]

370 IDE Selects, 2067 Selected Major LAF:  17.9% selects.  

My Pers shows March clearing out the 2005 Majors.  Is 200/month safe to assume for the 2006 Maj Selects pinning on starting April?

[stract]

not if Congress has any say.  My year group, the first 3 months (Oct-Dec) of pin-on it went like clockwork (250/mo).  In Jan that came to a screeching halt "DOPMA grade ceiling blah blah blah" and suddenly only 112/mo.  Delayed my pin-on by 4 months.

 

[PlanePhlyer]

Hopefully since they pushed up the '07 boards by a couple of months things will stay on track. Next boards PRFs are already being written in my sqdn. I'm hoping my line number of 1766 happens sooner than next Jan. Here's to hoping anyways. 

[bennynova]

Man, that's rough

 

mine is top 5.

 

Edited January 28, 2016 by bennynova

[D_Vezencuando]

Is anyone headed to the FY16 Lt Col board... 1APZ and/or from an embassy-type assignment? Curious to hear feedback from PRF's routed through another service (ie Navy-rating-Air Force) O-6. All the best this year...

[SnapLock]

On 1/27/2016 at 2:54 PM, Whitman said:

370 IDE Selects, 2067 Selected Major LAF:  17.9% selects.  

Picked up this board, but no school.  Out of curiosity, how many are going to IDE in-res each year?  Anyone know the guidance right now on candidates and the chances of candidates getting picked up by their 3rd look?  I know just a couple of years ago it was virtually impossible to get picked up as a candidate, but it seems to have gotten a little better recently.  I'm 99% sure I'm going to punch, but am interested to see what the consensus is here for what the future of a candidate is looking like.   

[Homestar]

I saw a brief at A/TA that said 25% of in-res spots would go to candidates this year. My wing had it's #1 Wg/CC candidate push get picked up on his 3d look. I'd say the chances of going in-res today are much better than they've been in the past 3-4 years.

[brabus]

Our Wg/CC said the "new idea" is to have more candidates go and less selects.  Maybe they finally realized selects are bailing at a high rate and they shouldn't put so many of their eggs in the "this guy's going to be a 4 star!" basket.  We'll see if it holds true, but sounds like candidates are in better shape than previously.

[Duck]

I think it is because they are tired of getting embarrassed when their Golden Children Selects turn down school and then promptly separate.

[brabus]

It's an easy game: give people some semblance of family life ability and don't waste their time on bullshit taskers, deployments, stuff that has absolutely zero to do with their job, etc.  Keep doing that shit and 95% of the "golden children" will keep punching.  A few incentives go a long way, but the AF has apparently zero capability to pull its cranium out of its ass and see that.

[MAFPLT]

Question for anyone that might now, I found out I'm a school select on this past majors board, I'll have more than 2 year TOS by Sep 2017.  Historically speaking if you're a school select and meet the TOS requirements can I corny to go on 1st look?  I know with the killer ops tempo, my cc would prefer to keep me as long as he can, but from what I hear AFPC doesn't care too much about ops defer requests... Lemme know what you think?

[disgruntledemployee]

Tell your boss you want to go 1st look, that it's best for your career and such.  Isn't that why the AF selected you?  Build your case and fire away.  The worst is the cc says no.

Let us know how it works out for you.

Out