Promotion and PRF Information

[Chuck17]

8 hours ago, ArcticGator said:

Is being on an AOC staff considered similar to NAF staff?

They're the same "level" but once you get beyond MAJCOM it's all the same in big-blues eyes. 

The RSAP (rated staff allocation process) has thrown the whole stratification of staffs on its ear to get certain staffs healthy this year for the summer VML. 618 AOC has a lot of talent coming in to the tune of graduated Sq/CCs, school guys, WOs, etc. 

Luck and timing my friends, luck and timing. Bloom where planted.

Chuck

[pawnman]

On 3/19/2016 at 4:44 PM, BFM this said:

Seen a number of IPUGs rammed through in min time, only to watch the newly minted IP go up to wing and occasionally log some IP time on the 781 to maintain currency for the next year or so, and then it's off to school. But hey, got that K prefix...check.

We're trying to do that with Striker Vista.  Take an IP in one jet, train them in a completely different jet, make them an IP inside of a year, then off to school and staff.

[pawnman]

On 3/7/2016 at 5:22 PM, Lord Ratner said:

Interesting data point I heard. Apparently all 6 school selects at Lakenheath have declined. Rumor has it a council of the elders was called to figure out how this happened... They must not read BO.net

Maybe there's still hope for me to go to school.

[pawnman]

On 3/11/2016 at 7:59 PM, Hot Sauce Hoy said:

I have good job progression and solid strats and good top 10% Maj strats at SQ and WG level, numerous FGO awards including SQ FGOY, and a SR push that strats me 1/5 IAPZ and "if I had a DP, he'd get it" with all the right pushes. My SR didn't have a DP, and I didn't get one at MLR. I feel good about being in a good position but you never really know with a "p" and what the competition is bringing to the table. 

I got promoted to major in a similar situation.  FLT/CC OTY for the OG, numerous awards, strats, and job progression.  I even did my MBA, back before AADs were masked.

I, too, had the "if I had one more DP to give".  I didn't feel bad about the P until later, when the SQ exec told us the allocation rate was 75%.  I still struggle to understand how I can be #1/24 flight commanders, #3/64 instructors in my squadron (the FTU), and be in the bottom 25% of my year group.

[Bode]

Seen a number of IPUGs rammed through in min time, only to watch the newly minted IP go up to wing and occasionally log some IP time on the 781 to maintain currency for the next year or so, and then it's off to school. But hey, got that K prefix...check.

We're trying to do that with Striker Vista.  Take an IP in one jet, train them in a completely different jet, make them an IP inside of a year, then off to school and staff.

Striker Vista?

[pawnman]

48 minutes ago, Lstcause257 said:

Striker Vista?

It's Global Strike's plan to "broaden" leadership among the bombers.  Take B-1 guys and make them BUFF guys.  Take BUFF guys and make them B-1 guys.  Take B-2 guys and...well, who knows, because most of the B-2 guys were already B-1 or BUFF guys before going to the B-2.

The problem is, they are targeting "high performing officers" in year groups that will get PRFs written next year.  Folks who have already made a name for themselves in their home communities, and now they are going to have a PRF written by a different wing, that flies different aircraft, with different priorities.

[Duck]

How would the board look at a record that has several top strats but chose to NOT put them on their prf? Would a senior leader even let you sabotage yourself like that? Does the board really dig into your records? My OPR before my board shouldn't have a strat and will be my top OPR. Crazy questions I know, just trying to figure out options.

[ArcticGator]

My SR chose to leave a # of strats off that suprised ke a bit. But once I thought about it I think it made sense. First, he cut out some repetitive ones. Once they state you are 1/7 AC's, they may feel they don't need to say you were also 2/12 AC's rift next to it.

Also, they may leave off a good strat that is maybe top 15 or 20% when trying to paint you as a consistent top 10% performer, for example. I don't really agree with that, but that may be their technique.

Maybe they are trying to paint breadth. My SR left off a good CGO strat but I am at my O-5 board so I don't know if that was the reason

I guess it all depends on what you have in your box of strats. Personally I think the more the better if they are top 20% but I am not a senior rater or board member.

However, I am pretty sure that board members are at least looking at the top and bottom lines of the rater and additional rater blocks of the OPRs. At least I hope they are.

[Herk Driver]

I have drafted several of my own and written many others and the SR changed all of them. I doubt a self destructive PRF would be signed unless the SR truly thought it accurately reflected your performance. YMMV.

[Skitzo]

Striker Vista?

It's Global Strike's plan to "broaden" leadership among the bombers.  Take B-1 guys and make them BUFF guys.  Take BUFF guys and make them B-1 guys.  Take B-2 guys and...well, who knows, because most of the B-2 guys were already B-1 or BUFF guys before going to the B-2.

The problem is, they are targeting "high performing officers" in year groups that will get PRFs written next year.  Folks who have already made a name for themselves in their home communities, and now they are going to have a PRF written by a different wing, that flies different aircraft, with different priorities.

AFSOC did this with the "Commando Reach" program a couple years ago... Results were mixed.

[PlanePhlyer]

15 hours ago, pawnman said:

I got promoted to major in a similar situation.  FLT/CC OTY for the OG, numerous awards, strats, and job progression.  I even did my MBA, back before AADs were masked.

I, too, had the "if I had one more DP to give".  I didn't feel bad about the P until later, when the SQ exec told us the allocation rate was 75%.  I still struggle to understand how I can be #1/24 flight commanders, #3/64 instructors in my squadron (the FTU), and be in the bottom 25% of my year group.

This^. 

Big blue wonders why people are leaving.   Should have planned the Christmas party bro!  

[Tonka]

15 hours ago, pawnman said:

I still struggle to understand how I can be #1/24 flight commanders, #3/64 instructors in my squadron (the FTU), and be in the bottom 25% of my year group.

Because the "strating" system is terribly flawed... In some communities a "#3 out of 12 Majors" is better than "#1 out of 20 pilots", why? Because a pilot is your technical skill, and a strat with your rank would include your technical skill plus all the things that you would do as a major.  Which has some logical sense to it, but only ifyou have the secret decoder ring. I don't agree with it either, but I've seen the discussion... So the top 75% probably had commanders with the secret ring and did a better job writing the 6-9 words in an OPR that mean anything.

[Karl Hungus]

6 hours ago, Duck said:

How would the board look at a record that has several top strats but chose to NOT put them on their prf? Would a senior leader even let you sabotage yourself like that? Does the board really dig into your records? My OPR before my board shouldn't have a strat and will be my top OPR. Crazy questions I know, just trying to figure out options.

Can you be selected for promotion but then decline before pinning on?  Or is being a non-select at the board via sabotage, writing a DNP me letter, etc the only way to avoid being promoted (and thus allow an earlier exit to greener pastures)?  Honestly don't know.  

[pawnman]

11 hours ago, Skitzo said:

AFSOC did this with the "Commando Reach" program a couple years ago... Results were mixed.

I get the idea, but I worry about the year groups they are targeting and the stated desire to put guys through a TXC-3 (for previously qualified instructors) and make them an instructor a year later.  We have several BUFF guys we've been putting through the IQC course, on a shortened timeline due to their previous experience, and they all feel oversped (they all made it through, though).  I worry what happens when we cut the time for academics and the number of sorties in half for a guy who has never flown that aircraft.

I don't know what AFSOC or AMC is like in regards to upgrade timelines, but a year to instructor is unheard of in my community.  A year is where we start looking at guys for mission lead or aircraft commander.

[pawnman]

8 hours ago, Tonka said:

Because the "strating" system is terribly flawed... In some communities a "#3 out of 12 Majors" is better than "#1 out of 20 pilots", why? Because a pilot is your technical skill, and a strat with your rank would include your technical skill plus all the things that you would do as a major.  Which has some logical sense to it, but only ifyou have the secret decoder ring. I don't agree with it either, but I've seen the discussion... So the top 75% probably had commanders with the secret ring and did a better job writing the 6-9 words in an OPR that mean anything.

I can see that to a point, but I would have hoped #1/24 flight commanders in the OG would have helped.  The OG (not that anyone here isn't already aware) includes the OSS...stuff like Tower, Airfield Management, AFE, Wing Weapons and Tactics, Wing Intel, ARMS, SERE...

[pawnman]

6 hours ago, Karl Hungus said:

Can you be selected for promotion but then decline before pinning on?  Or is being a non-select at the board via sabotage, writing a DNP me letter, etc the only way to avoid being promoted (and thus allow an earlier exit to greener pastures)?  Honestly don't know.  

There's no commitment associated with promotion.

Are you looking to not be passed over, denied continuation, and get a severance package on the way out?

[Chuck17]

8 hours ago, Tonka said:

Because the "strating" system is terribly flawed... In some communities a "#3 out of 12 Majors" is better than "#1 out of 20 pilots", why? Because a pilot is your technical skill, and a strat with your rank would include your technical skill plus all the things that you would do as a major.  Which has some logical sense to it, but only ifyou have the secret decoder ring. I don't agree with it either, but I've seen the discussion... So the top 75% probably had commanders with the secret ring and did a better job writing the 6-9 words in an OPR that mean anything.

Pile on, and gonna play devils advocate because I'm sitting in cue for my O-5 board results, and I've just had this conversation with two flag officers.

Do you, as a pilot, care if someone is the #1/20 MPF officers or #1/20 LRS officers? No? Neither does the board. The board doesn't care if you're the best pilot in the world - when you reach the FGO ranks, they care about your ability to lead, to think, to get things done. Your skill at your AFSC matters - if you've not hit IP/EP status it will detract. But # 1/20 pilots is a second rate strat, because ultimately it doesn't matter. They want to see a demonstrated ability to lead "in the field..." Hence Field Grade Officer. 

No decoder wheel. No slight of hand. While obviously some are more skilled at the written word and PRFmanship than others, ultimately that form comes down to the bottom line and who is signing it. Nothing else matters. Not the C-method, not the narrative, not the language. When you see it, you'll know if you're going to be promoted. If there isn't a DP checked and a strat in the bottom line, you should have realistic expectations of your chances. The numbers are out there for you to find, to support this claim - you should know where you fall.

And more importantly, your commanders should have the guts to look you in the eye and tell you where you fall and why. That's the hard part of leadership. YMMV.

Chuck

[pawnman]

1 minute ago, Chuck17 said:

Pile on, and gonna play devils advocate because I'm sitting in cue for my O-5 board results, and I've just had this conversation with two flag officers.

Do you, as a pilot, care if someone is the #1/20 MPF officers or #1/20 LRS officers? No? Neither does the board. The board doesn't care if you're the best pilot in the world - when you reach the FGO ranks, they care about your ability to lead, to think, to get things done. Your skill at your AFSC matters - if you've not hit IP/EP status it will detract. But # 1/20 pilots is a second rate strat, because ultimately it doesn't matter. They want to see a demonstrated ability to lead "in the field..." Hence Field Grade Officer. 

No decoder wheel. No slight of hand. While obviously some are more skilled at the written word and PRFmanship than others, ultimately that form comes down to the bottom line and who is signing it. Nothing else matters. Not the C-method, not the narrative, not the language. When you see it, you'll know if you're going to be promoted. If there isn't a DP checked and a strat in the bottom line, you should have realistic expectations of your chances. The numbers are out there for you to find, to support this claim - you should know where you fall.

And more importantly, your commanders should have the guts to look you in the eye and tell you where you fall and why. That's the hard part of leadership. YMMV.

Chuck

The last point is the big one, isn't it?  Unfortunately, I found out I was getting a P when I got my PRF back from the WG/CC...all while my commander and the OG/CC were telling me what a great officer I was, how I was kicking ass at my job, how I had really hit the ground running after my PCS...

If this is the system we're going to use, it relies on telling people where they stack up BEFORE the PRFs are written, along with some guidance on how to improve that standing.

[Karl Hungus]

31 minutes ago, pawnman said:

There's no commitment associated with promotion.

Are you looking to not be passed over, denied continuation, and get a severance package on the way out?

I was asking a hypothetical regarding Duck's desires.  I'm not trying to separate... yet.  

[Duck]

How would the board look at a record that has several top strats but chose to NOT put them on their prf? Would a senior leader even let you sabotage yourself like that? Does the board really dig into your records? My OPR before my board shouldn't have a strat and will be my top OPR. Crazy questions I know, just trying to figure out options.

Can you be selected for promotion but then decline before pinning on?  Or is being a non-select at the board via sabotage, writing a DNP me letter, etc the only way to avoid being promoted (and thus allow an earlier exit to greener pastures)?  Honestly don't know.  

Great question for which I have dug through regs extensively to find the answer to. Short answer is if you are selected but decline promotion, you will serve out the remaining ADSC at the lower rank. You weren't twice passed over so no continuation required but you will separate at the end of your commitment.

[Hot Sauce Hoy]

5 hours ago, Chuck17 said:

 

 When you see it, you'll know if you're going to be promoted. If there isn't a DP checked and a strat in the bottom line, you should have realistic expectations of your chances. The numbers are out there for you to find, to support this claim - you should know where you stand

Chuck, good post. But I look at my O-5 PRF and don't know if I will be promoted. I have the "p" box checked but was strated #1 in a small pool of 5 by SR and have a super P and a bottom line that says all the right things. Is this the senior rater saying I need to fit in that 40% or so of "p"s that get promoted IPZ?  Is having a strong SR strat one of the keys to being promoted with a "p"?  Of course I have realistic expectations simply because the P is checked. 

Edited April 2, 2016 by Hot Sauce Hoy

[Chuck17]

If you're strat'd #1 on the PRF and have the super P because (for instance) the SR had no DPs to give, well I'd say you're good.

Are you on a staff? Duty above wing level at some point? That seemed to be a descriminator last year for whatever reason - I guess because we all look the same... If so, chances are good I'd say.

Chuck

[Chuck17]

On 3/11/2016 at 8:44 PM, TMFan said:

Chuck, link doesn't work anymore.  Would you mind reposting?

My bad. Let me see if I can make this work.

How to for PRFs...

And last year's promotions stats to O-5 from AMC...

PRF 101 January 2015.pdf

CY15A Lt Col Promotion Results.pdf

[ArcticGator]

Chuck, that's great info. Thanks!

[ArcticGator]

So help me understand slide 50 (performance based review) of the Lt Col Promotion Results brief...

Is that saying that 1 of the 28 guys who were passed over for O-5 had every one of those "boxes" checked in his record and didn't get selected?

That is very useful information when trying to figure out your chances.