Promotion and PRF Information

[hatedont]

1 hour ago, Duck said:

Muthafvckers!!!! It freaking sat doing nothing at SAF for over 1 month and they wonder why we are so pissed off. B!tches can't even meet their own suspenses that they set for themselves. Getting a promotion select list to the under SECDEF to approve isn't freaking surgery people. What would you say you do here?


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Woooo Duck. Lets all just relax. Do you need a beer light timeout to gather your thoughts and emotions? Or should I go to my "safe space?"

Edited June 8, 2017 by hatedont

[FUSEPLUG]

11 minutes ago, hatedont said:

Woooo Duck. Lets all just relax. Do you need a beer light timeout to gather your thoughts and emotions?

No.  No he does not. No time out necessary. This is a fucking ridiculous state of affairs when the service can't seem to figure out why everyone is bailing. 

I'll add I have no dog in this fight, but I was an '05 guy who had his board delayed an entire year.  Made the VSP application that much easier. 

[bennynova]

Who else is just sticking out (surviving) til retirement!!?

[Duck]

Woooo Duck. Lets all just relax. Do you need a beer light timeout to gather your thoughts and emotions? Or should I go to my "safe space?"

I put up with your incoherent posts and even partially agreed with one or two. In all sincerity, it truly frightens me that there are officers in the Air Force as dumb as you project yourself to be on this forum.

I mean that with all due respect.


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[WTFAF]

I was joking with you. I'm not the one cursing and screaming like a 5 year old in timeout. *Your constant bitching serves no purpose here. 

If you saw me in person Duck, I would slap the taste out of your mouth little man. I would have no problem telling my CC why I did it either.* If you are going to be a little bitch, then don't post. Take your bottle of breast milk to your room. 

 

God ing dammit I'm getting sick of these douchey Chang-like trolls on this forum!

 

[FUSEPLUG]

14 minutes ago, hatedont said:

If you saw me in person Duck, I would slap the taste out of your mouth little man. I would have no problem telling my CC why I did it either.

And here we go again. Mods... please? What has this guy added in the last few weeks?  Even Butters took a clue and trolled elsewhere. 

Edited June 8, 2017 by FUSEPLUG
Sucks when you're quoted before you edit out your stupid.

[Duck]

I was joking with you. I'm not the one cursing, screaming, and throwing a tantrum like a 5 year old in timeout. If you are going to be a little bitch, then don't post. Take your bottle of breast milk to your room. 
For a guy who doesn't care about promotion, you seem to care a lot about the release of the results. 

Wow. You really are an idiot aren't you? You aren't putting on a show. This isn't you trying to be a troll. This is really you. You really have no clue. In that case, please accept my apology. I genuinely feel bad for going fangs out at you. That wasn't a fair fight. My bad.


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[Duck]

Hilarious that you post about how you would "slap the taste out of my mouth" and then go and delete your post.


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[FUSEPLUG]

And now he deleted his post...  

If I end up in a cyber-bullying/manslaughter case, this is really going to fuck with my drill weekend. I need to get water survival done...

[dream big]

3 hours ago, hatedont said:

Woooo Duck. Lets all just relax. Do you need a beer light timeout to gather your thoughts and emotions? Or should I go to my "safe space?"

Do you provide anything of value on here, or anywhere for that matter? What is your issue? Wife ran out on you and alimony payments taking their toll? 

[matmacwc]

1 hour ago, FUSEPLUG said:

And now he deleted his post...  

If I end up in a cyber-bullying/manslaughter case, this is really going to fuck with my drill weekend. I need to get water survival done...

We do ours in San Diego, it would be a shame to miss.

[FourFans]

[Weezer]

For whatever it's worth, I ran some statistics on some numbers from AFPC's static stats site (under "RAW" on the AFPC secure apps site).

My nerdery is attached.

I reckoned if the AF values pilots (or some other field) over another, then that field will have a higher representation in the "Select" pool as compared to its proportion of the "Considered" pool for a promotion board. 

For example, in the 2017 Lt Col Board, 30.3% of those considered were pilots, while 31.39% of those selected were pilots.  31.48% of those considered were mission support, while 32.82% selected were.  So, pilots and mission support ended up with a bigger piece of the pie than CSO, ABM, and non-rated ops.  Theoretically, that would mean the AF values those fields more.

What I found was, using a statistical test of significance (Z value), there isn't a significant over/under representation over the past 5 years among pilots, CSOs, ABMs, non-rated ops, and mission support for the IPZ board to Lt Col.  However, for BPZ to Lt Col, and in BPZ and IPZ to Col, pilots make up a larger share, both historically and over the past 5 years.

What I think this indicates is that your IPZ rates are based on steady state staff and squadron command opportunities within each community.  But, the high representation of pilots in the BPZ pool shows that the AF is ensuring its HPOs and future GOs will be pilots.  I don't have data to show if those making BPZ are the best pilots/officers/leaders, or whatever; just that the AF values pilots as senior leaders.

Not sure I'll affect anyone's opinions, but I thought I'd share.  Also, I don't think I have to ask, but please point out any errors I've made in the analysis.

Hist LAF Stats.xlsx

LAF Promotions Proportion Study.pdf

[17D_guy]

6 hours ago, Weezer said:

  So, pilots and mission support ended up with a bigger piece of the pie than CSO, ABM, and non-rated ops.  Theoretically, that would mean the AF values those fields more.

This is what's starting to get chatted around about in Cyber.  We're getting told one thing about how important we are, and how important our retention is...but not promoting at even normal rate levels compared to "support."

[Weezer]

12 minutes ago, 17D_guy said:

This is what's starting to get chatted around about in Cyber.  We're getting told one thing about how important we are, and how important our retention is...but not promoting at even normal rate levels compared to "support."

So, I'm not sure at what point you guys officially crossed over in the historical data from support to non-rated ops...2008 or 9?

[17D_guy]

2009 was when they started the AFSC change...they still haven't figured out how to do it.

[WeTheSheeple]

3 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

This is what's starting to get chatted around about in Cyber.  We're getting told one thing about how important we are, and how important our retention is...but not promoting at even normal rate levels compared to "support."

By my count, more cyber bubbas BPZ in 2017 O-5 brd (8) than any community outside of 11F (29) or 11M (28). Mostly AFSOC support and true cyber (vice base comm sq) background. It is a change, and probably a good one.

[Toro]

And here we go again. Mods... please? What has this guy added in the last few weeks?  Even Butters took a clue and trolled elsewhere. 

I wanted this to be professional, efficient, adult, cooperative. Not a lot to ask. Alas, your Mr. hatedont did not see it that way... so he won't be joining us for the rest of his life.

Yes, that was a new account, and apparently created by the same person who created two others prior (which he stopped using after getting shit on). He has been put into permanent time out.

[hispeed7721]

so he won't be joining us for the rest of his life.

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[Homestar]

1 hour ago, Toro said:

... so he won't be joining us for the rest of his life.
 

Mad dog approves.

[tk1313]

Don't fuck with Duck

Edited June 9, 2017 by tk1313
edit to add: I made it rhyme so the Simple Jacks of the world can remember it.

[daynightindicator]

Back on topic...AFPC answered, when asked about why the next O-5 board was slipped, that it's due to the 3 yr TIG requirement to compete for promotion. Basically when they slipped the O-4 boards a few years ago, they bought time on the back end.


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[TnkrToad]

On 6/9/2017 at 4:18 PM, daynightindicator said:

Back on topic...AFPC answered, when asked about why the next O-5 board was slipped, that it's due to the 3 yr TIG requirement to compete for promotion. Basically when they slipped the O-4 boards a few years ago, they bought time on the back end.


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Just curious--is the 3 yr TIG requirement the issue for the IPZ year group, or the 1- and/or 2-yr BPZ groups? 

If the 3 yrs TIG is a requirement for promotion consideration, and the O-5 board was delayed accordingly, this can only mean one of two things:

Option 1--The IPZ folks don't even have 3 yrs TIG by now: 

- Either Big Blue is hemorrhaging folks so fast that they have to push promo boards ever-earlier, such that even IPZ folks are meeting their O-5 boards with only 3 yrs TIG/will pin with 4 yrs TIG

- Funny thing is, I take this to mean that nobody could meet this board BPZ. If the IPZ group is delayed due to TIG concerns, then the BPZ year groups couldn't possibly meet the board. If so, heads must be exploding all around the Air Force. 

Option 2--The BPZ folks are the ones with the 3 yrs TIG limfac:

- In this case, Big Blue is pushing back promotions solely to protect its shiny penny BPZ types. If such is the case, I'd have a hard time accepting that my promotion was being delayed so that the AF could take care of its blue chip folks. 

I have no idea which of the two options is driving the promo board timing. Regardless, if the O-5 promo is delayed due to TIG issues, this indicates a real challenge for the Air Force. 

TT

[HU&W]

Title 10, Sec 619

(2)Subject to paragraph (4), an officer who is on the active-duty list of the Army, Air Force, or Marine Corps and holds a permanent appointment in a grade above first lieutenant or is on the active-duty list of the Navy and holds a permanent appointment in a grade above lieutenant (junior grade) may not be considered for selection for promotion to the next higher permanent grade until he has completed the following period of service in the grade in which he holds a permanent appointment:

(A)

Three years, in the case of an officer of the Army, Air Force, or Marine Corps holding a permanent appointment in the grade of captain, major, or lieutenant colonel or of an officer of the Navy holding a permanent appointment in the grade of lieutenant, lieutenant commander, or commander.

 

******************************

Since the AF wants to promote entire year groups together, the most junior guy/gal can't be "considered" until 3-years after pin on.

[Champ Kind]

If the IPZ group is delayed due to TIG concerns, then the BPZ year groups couldn't possibly meet the board. If so, heads must be exploding all around the Air Force....

.....Regardless, if the O-5 promo is delayed due to TIG issues, this indicates a real challenge for the Air Force. 

I think this was pretty much a given aside from the promotion board rolex.