Promotion and PRF Information

[Weezer]

8 hours ago, TnkrToad said:

Just curious--is the 3 yr TIG requirement the issue for the IPZ year group, or the 1- and/or 2-yr BPZ groups? 

If the 3 yrs TIG is a requirement for promotion consideration, and the O-5 board was delayed accordingly, this can only mean one of two things:

Option 1--The IPZ folks don't even have 3 yrs TIG by now: 

- Either Big Blue is hemorrhaging folks so fast that they have to push promo boards ever-earlier, such that even IPZ folks are meeting their O-5 boards with only 3 yrs TIG/will pin with 4 yrs TIG

- Funny thing is, I take this to mean that nobody could meet this board BPZ. If the IPZ group is delayed due to TIG concerns, then the BPZ year groups couldn't possibly meet the board. If so, heads must be exploding all around the Air Force. 

Option 2--The BPZ folks are the ones with the 3 yrs TIG limfac:

- In this case, Big Blue is pushing back promotions solely to protect its shiny penny BPZ types. If such is the case, I'd have a hard time accepting that my promotion was being delayed so that the AF could take care of its blue chip folks. 

I have no idea which of the two options is driving the promo board timing. Regardless, if the O-5 promo is delayed due to TIG issues, this indicates a real challenge for the Air Force. 

TT

This board should be IPZ for the '04 year group.  The '04 year group pinned on in 2014, so 2018 would be 3 years TIG for the vast majority of IPZ.

But the 3 years TIG for BPZ can't be a show-stopper.  The '02 year group met their 2 yr BTZ board in 2014, but had only pinned on O-4 in 2012, so the 2 yr BTZ dudes only had 2 years TIG...therefore, it shouldn't be a showstopper for even shiny pennies.

I reckon it's got more to do with DOPMA grade ceiling calculus somewhere along the line.

Edited June 12, 2017 by Weezer
Additional info

[TnkrToad]

1 hour ago, Weezer said:

This board should be IPZ for the '04 year group.  The '04 year group pinned on in 2014, so 2018 would be 3 years TIG for the vast majority of IPZ.

But the 3 years TIG for BPZ can't be a show-stopper.  The '02 year group met their 2 yr BTZ board in 2014, but had only pinned on O-4 in 2012, so the 2 yr BTZ dudes only had 2 years TIG...therefore, it shouldn't be a showstopper for even shiny pennies.

I reckon it's got more to do with DOPMA grade ceiling calculus somewhere along the line.

Did a bit more research: Jun '18 makes sense for 3 yrs TIG for the IPZs/substantially less for BPZs.

The last '04 year group bubba pinned on NLT 31 May 15, so a Jun 2018 IPZ board for them exactly matches min 3 yrs TIG.

What this means is that '06 year group folks (the last of whom didn't pin on 'til Dec '16) will meet the 2 BPZ board with as little as 1.5 yrs as O-4s (2 yrs at the outside).

The really shiny penny '06 year group bubbas who get picked up two below will thus be selected for O-5 at the 12 yr point in their careers & pin on at barely 13 yrs into their careers . . . with substantial portions of those 13 years almost inevitably spent outside of ops units.

The upshot is this: if the AF does grow substantially (thus increasing promotion opportunities/driving boards even earlier) and the AF continues to hemorrhage talent (driving even earlier promo boards, to backfill those who retired/separated), it's conceivable that we'll soon have 16 year pinned-on O-6s (who knows--possibly even younger if this trend continues; 15 yrs to O-6 for some?).

Good news for the super-striver types, I guess . . .

TT

[tac airlifter]

2 hours ago, TnkrToad said:

it's conceivable that we'll soon have 16 year pinned-on O-6s (who knows--possibly even younger if this trend continues; 15 yrs to O-6 for some?).

Good news for the super-striver types, I guess . . .

TT

Spending 8-10 years as an O-6 maneuvering for O-7 sounds like the shittiest deal going.  

[FourFans]

The really shiny penny '06 year group bubbas who get picked up two below will thus be selected for O-5 at the 12 yr point in their careers & pin on at barely 13 yrs into their careers . . . with substantial portions of those 13 years almost inevitably spent outside of ops units.

Awesome. The lead class of millennials will hit squadron command with the least ops experience, the most entitlement in the ranks, and a decade of leadership crisis paving the way for them. I know several great '06 folks. God be with you gents, I'll be looking for other employment.


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[Bender]

I don't think 13 years means anything...some people will do a legendary job. The problem is the latter part of the last quote, we pick these people due to being execs and aides and staffers and schoolers...not operational experts (or god forbid, a little of both).

The pole year is crippling us. We have rigid metrics of what is important to hit BTZ, aka pole year set up.

Shiny pennies rarely even deploy, the path doesn't provide time for such inconveniences. If they do, it's only to get the command box check.

Check the box, check the box...what's not in the brochure is only the first three are actually boxes you check. Who likes you while you checked those three determines if you'll check the remainder.

The number of dudes I've heard of getting BTZ to O-5 but then direct back to the IDE, which they didn't get before...gross. The number of SDE getting picked up candidates because they can't get people to take it...gross.

It's all just upside down fvcked up. (My phone just autocorrected upside down to unpaid, it was tough to fix.)

Bendy


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[afthunderchief16]

Anyone heard any gouge on the release of the O-4 board? MyPers still not updated since 7 Jun and still showing "late Jun - mid-July" for the release. 

Unconfirmed words from the minions in my OG is that "it should be any day now..." but I'll believe that as soon as it happens. 

[BADFNZ]

8 hours ago, afthunderchief16 said:

Anyone heard any gouge on the release of the O-4 board? MyPers still not updated since 7 Jun and still showing "late Jun - mid-July" for the release. 

Unconfirmed words from the minions in my OG is that "it should be any day now..." but I'll believe that as soon as it happens. 

It's pretty sad that I'm in this board but my give-a-shit factor is so low that I forgot the results were going to be released this summer.

[08Dawg]

9 hours ago, afthunderchief16 said:

Anyone heard any gouge on the release of the O-4 board? MyPers still not updated since 7 Jun and still showing "late Jun - mid-July" for the release. 

Unconfirmed words from the minions in my OG is that "it should be any day now..." but I'll believe that as soon as it happens. 

I heard through the grapevine, indirectly from AFPC, that it might be next week...not understanding what takes so long about the process, and why the projected release date was pushed back.  How long does it really take to validate board results?

Edited June 29, 2017 by 08Dawg
engrish

[dream big]

3 hours ago, 08Dawg said:

I heard through the grapevine, indirectly from AFPC, that it might be next week...not understanding what takes so long about the process, and why the projected release date was pushed back.  How long does it really take to validate board results?

OSD and congress have to sign off on it I'm pretty sure.  Takes time!  

[Duck]

OSD and congress have to sign off on it I'm pretty sure.  Takes time!  

According to MyPers Congress doesn't get it until after the public release date. Deputy SecDef is the approval authority. Not sure what is taking so long. Consensus at my base from leadership is that AFPC has it back from OSD but are sitting on it due to being busy with the Hawk board and other things.


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[Duck]

Mypers updated... still no release date...


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[tkc10chief]

At this point I don't expect to hear anything until July 5th or later. 

[pawnman]

35 minutes ago, Swizzle said:

Heard list needs to come out before 5 July or people could derive from other releases if they were or weren't selected...that and DTs will start meeting after the 4th, right? I'm sure they'd like to publicly know and have the people know.

Break, break...

Decisions are being made apparently soon about PRF changes, OPR changes, stratification AFI guidance, no more DE select status, Officer SCODs, and new AFIs.

RUMINT, but the last I heard from a guy who did the whole one-on-one phone consultation with AFPC after the last board was: 

1. They're going to mask year groups going forward. Essentially, once you meet your IPZ board, you'll continue to be treated at IPZ until you get out.

2. One line PRFs, forcing the boards to actually look at your whole record.

3. Quarterly awards were apparently a discriminator on the last LtCol board. Plan accordingly if you want to stay.

[FlyinGrunt]

How does #1 work with DOPMA?

[Steve C]

19 minutes ago, pawnman said:

1. They're going to mask year groups going forward. Essentially, once you meet your IPZ board, you'll continue to be treated at IPZ until you get out.

Masked... other than the 25 Maj OPRs in your record.  

[xaarman]

5 hours ago, Duck said:

Mypers updated... still no release date...


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At least they updated it from Late Jun - Mid July to Early - Mid July!

 

 

[jazzdude]

How does #1 work with DOPMA?

It would mean that each continuation board will essentially be a RIF board to make room for the guys on the new promotion list. DOPMA doesn't care about year groups, just total number in each grade.

The only way I see this working is if there are quotas on AFSCs promoted to ensure a healthy balance, especially given the pilot shortage (does the Air Force no good if only mission support guys are promoted, or if no cyber/space guys are promoted, etc)

[Duck]

Swizzle, how could people find out other ways after July 5th?


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[Chicken]

10 hours ago, Steve C said:

Masked... other than the 25 Maj OPRs in your record.  

Great... so now passed over folks will have multiple OPRs with no strats on top because they were cast aside after getting passed over.  So.... not everyone will reallllly be treated like they are all IPZ...  so.... nothing changes.

Edited July 1, 2017 by Chicken

[Chicken]

9 hours ago, jazzdude said:

It would mean that each continuation board will essentially be a RIF board to make room for the guys on the new promotion list. DOPMA doesn't care about year groups, just total number in each grade.

The only way I see this working is if there are quotas on AFSCs promoted to ensure a healthy balance, especially given the pilot shortage (does the Air Force no good if only mission support guys are promoted, or if no cyber/space guys are promoted, etc)

What do you mean a RIF board?  RIF everyone at 20 years type of thing?  Or RIF based on something else?

[Duck]

What do you mean a RIF board?  RIF everyone at 20 years type of thing?  Or RIF based on something else?

I don't follow this either. Dopma in 1980 drives up or out, not the AF. Continuation/non-voluntary separation is not chosen at the promotion board but actually a separate (even though they run back to back and w/the same members I believe) Continuation board which decides who to offer continuation to based on SECAF guidance and desired end strength numbers.

 

By masking IPZ/APZ all that really changes is passed over people won't be discriminated against at the board. Twice passed over = continuation or non continuation. Once someone accepts continuation they would still meet promotion boards APZ (masked) but not continuation boards since they have already been continued to 20/24, etc.

 

I am pretty sure this is how this would work based on digging through the stupid promotion AFI.

 

 

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[jazzdude]

Continuation offered is a maximum, not a minimum. Just because they offer continuation to 20 doesn't mean they can't decide to separate you earlier by changing the continuation criteria and reboarding your record for continuation again based on needs of the air force. If you are authorized X majors, you have to have a process to get rid of the excess majors (either through promotion, separation, or retirement). Up or out was one way to force separation of people to keep the end strength for the grade where it needed to be. The continuation board would be the logical place to assess which officers should be separated to maintain end strength, as the records are there for consideration already. Welcome to the hunger games.

Plus, IPZ/APZ has been masked on the last few majors boards already, but board members can tell if you are APZ (count OPRs, look at dates, etc).



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[Guest]

Continuation offered is a maximum, not a minimum. Just because they offer continuation to 20 doesn't mean they can't decide to separate you earlier by changing the continuation criteria and reboarding your record for continuation again based on needs of the air force. If you are authorized X majors, you have to have a process to get rid of the excess majors (either through promotion, separation, or retirement). Up or out was one way to force separation of people to keep the end strength for the grade where it needed to be. The continuation board would be the logical place to assess which officers should be separated to maintain end strength, as the records are there for consideration already. Welcome to the hunger games.

Plus, IPZ/APZ has been masked on the last few majors boards already, but board members can tell if you are APZ (count OPRs, look at dates, etc).



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Not entirely correct. Once granted selective continuation, it takes the SECAF removing the career field from the "critical skills needs" of the Air Force before you can be involuntarily separated. It's a very safe bet that pilot is not going to be removed from that list any time soon.


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[olevelo]

Continuation offered is a maximum, not a minimum. Just because they offer continuation to 20 doesn't mean they can't decide to separate you earlier by changing the continuation criteria and reboarding your record for continuation again based on needs of the air force. If you are authorized X majors, you have to have a process to get rid of the excess majors (either through promotion, separation, or retirement). Up or out was one way to force separation of people to keep the end strength for the grade where it needed to be. The continuation board would be the logical place to assess which officers should be separated to maintain end strength, as the records are there for consideration already. Welcome to the hunger games.

Plus, IPZ/APZ has been masked on the last few majors boards already, but board members can tell if you are APZ (count OPRs, look at dates, etc).



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Umm, no. They can offer a year-to-year continuation, but it's very rare that they do. If they offer 20/24, you are guaranteed to that unless there's some other serious issue that causes an involuntary separation.

As for the masking, it's really up to the individual board member if they pay attention. My SR told me last week that he recently sat on a board, and personally, he didn't look at a single date or pay attention to anything that would indicating I/APZ, and that was the direction given to them. He said the APZ's did pretty well on that board (couldn't tell me what board it was).


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[Herk Driver]

Not entirely correct. Once granted selective continuation, it takes the SECAF removing the career field from the "critical skills needs" of the Air Force before you can be involuntarily separated. It's a very safe bet that 11F is not going to be removed from that list any time soon.


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Fixed it for you.


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