Promotion and PRF Information

[celtic020]

13 hours ago, Bender said:

 

Yet, for some reason, you had started doing exactly that?

Bendy

 

Was sort of hedging my bets approaching my last look for IDE in-res in case I was not selected as the window between non-select notification and IPZ board is somewhat tight.  But your point is well-received -- I hope Fingers' intent will come to fruition regarding the IDE selection process because it directly impacted me favorably as a non-shiny penny, slightly above average O-3 turned pretty good O-4  who kept working hard rather than the legacy system where your career track was pre-ordained simply based on whether you were a school select on your O-4 board or not.    

[Guardian]

Was sort of hedging my bets approaching my last look for IDE in-res in case I was not selected as the window between non-select notification and IPZ board is somewhat tight.  But your point is well-received -- I hope Fingers' intent will come to fruition regarding the IDE selection process because it directly impacted me favorably as a non-shiny penny, slightly above average O-3 turned pretty good O-4  who kept working hard rather than the legacy system where your career track was pre-ordained simply based on whether you were a school select on your O-4 board or not.    

Dude. It doesn’t matter. The only reason to go to that is if you want to. Don’t do something that you don’t really want to at this stage in your life. If you want what it brings then try to go in res. If you don’t want it or don’t care then it’s gut check time. You have to start thinking about what you want to do and if you are ok separating or retiring as a major. If you are then why all of the stress over something you don’t even want?

[IDALPHA]

14 hours ago, pawnman said:

Here I thought you guys were talking about using the method of completion as a discriminator, not doing it by correspondence first to get picked up in residence.

How it should be...

If the boss wants a guy to be a CC then offer an in res.

Min running an online course just to get a promotion/show you care/being a company man clearly falls under “what’s wrong with the AF”

[14N Guy]

On 1/21/2019 at 2:36 PM, Revpmd said:

Lt Col...anyone got their PRFs back yet?

I got mine back today. This is my 2APZ and my leadership has officially given up on me. Got a P with a “Def Promote”, SQ/CC and SDE push and no strats.

My 1APZ had a Group strat as a header and 2 Wing strats in the push line.

My 2APZ (written by the same organization and O-6 as last year) has no strats at all.

This is my second year in a boarded position and I was told my performance hadn’t dropped at all and I was doing better than my first year. However, people with better records joined the Group in the last 7 months and they got strated above me, so I lost all of my strats.

I asked if my leadership understood how this would make my OPR look and the message it would send to my next rater and they said yes, they understood and it is what it is.

When I asked how I was supposed to improve my record if my current year work performance counted for so little all I git was a shrug.

At the end of the day I know I will never get promoted and I have already accepted continuation. Unfortunately, I am struggling to GAS about the work I am currently doing and I know it is likely that the next job I go to will have even less of an operational impact.

But, as a senior leader told me after a discussion about my PRF, at least I don’t have to worry about following a specific track to success, because I can do whatever I want!

[pawnman]

6 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

I got mine back today. This is my 2APZ and my leadership has officially given up on me. Got a P with a “Def Promote”, SQ/CC and SDE push and no strats.

My 1APZ had a Group strat as a header and 2 Wing strats in the push line.

My 2APZ (written by the same organization and O-6 as last year) has no strats at all.

This is my second year in a boarded position and I was told my performance hadn’t dropped at all and I was doing better than my first year. However, people with better records joined the Group in the last 7 months and they got strated above me, so I lost all of my strats.

I asked if my leadership understood how this would make my OPR look and the message it would send to my next rater and they said yes, they understood and it is what it is.

When I asked how I was supposed to improve my record if my current year work performance counted for so little all I git was a shrug.

At the end of the day I know I will never get promoted and I have already accepted continuation. Unfortunately, I am struggling to GAS about the work I am currently doing and I know it is likely that the next job I go to will have even less of an operational impact.

But, as a senior leader told me after a discussion about my PRF, at least I don’t have to worry about following a specific track to success, because I can do whatever I want!

On the bright side, you no longer have any reason to GAS about anything you don't care about.  No more worries about 1206s or OPR bullets.  No more volunteering or self-improvement.  No more reason to take on big, unwieldy projects.  Just work hours like a Finance Officer and do the parts of your job you like.

[Ash]

9 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

I got mine back today. This is my 2APZ and my leadership has officially given up on me. Got a P with a “Def Promote”, SQ/CC and SDE push and no strats.

My 1APZ had a Group strat as a header and 2 Wing strats in the push line.

My 2APZ (written by the same organization and O-6 as last year) has no strats at all.

This is my second year in a boarded position and I was told my performance hadn’t dropped at all and I was doing better than my first year. However, people with better records joined the Group in the last 7 months and they got strated above me, so I lost all of my strats.

I asked if my leadership understood how this would make my OPR look and the message it would send to my next rater and they said yes, they understood and it is what it is.

When I asked how I was supposed to improve my record if my current year work performance counted for so little all I git was a shrug.

At the end of the day I know I will never get promoted and I have already accepted continuation. Unfortunately, I am struggling to GAS about the work I am currently doing and I know it is likely that the next job I go to will have even less of an operational impact.

But, as a senior leader told me after a discussion about my PRF, at least I don’t have to worry about following a specific track to success, because I can do whatever I want!

If you want to get promoted, transition to full time reserve/guard. 

[14N Guy]

Good points.

 

It wasn’t the promotion part that bothered me. I’ve accepted being an O-4 for the rest of my time in uniform. My records aren’t good enough to get promoted and I accept that.

I just wasn’t expecting to get tossed to the side so quickly. Should have seen that coming.

[bennynova]

While your O6 probably values you (getting strats on 1ABZ is hard enough), he has come to the realization that the AF is not going to promote you.   Now he Hs to ply the game and use you as a denominator r for the next batch of O4s getting towards promotion.

Unless you want it, give someone else your leadership spot and do something you love.   You can also mentor them and aid in their duties, while not having to be THE GUY... assuming you enjoy that mission.   

 

You will likely be selectively continued to 24 years.  As long as you and your bosses have the expectations set, this could be enjoyable to some extent.   

 

I’m not saying to go to your boss and say, “I don’t GAS”... but say that you want others to have the leadership opportunities to benefit their career and you be  more of a support role. 

Edited January 30, 2019 by bennynova

[Swizzle]

I predict in three or four years O5 promotions rates will be extremely high, and many passed-over O4s will get picked up. This because O4 rates were effectively like 99% with most of the passed over O3s, like ~300, promoted (one 8 yrs APZ I personally know). "Second string" or APZ personnel are being called up and largely depleted meaning little to no competition to IPZ/APZ O5 in the future, just like O4 for next ~5 years, and passed over people will be picked up to fill the manning bathtub the exodus created. Put another way, the "bubble" will rise in this manning system. VRRAD and VPLAD aren't enough to normalize the manning pyramid again. They cut too deep and scared away too many. 

If this macro trend continues, the exodus that is, O5 will be 100% "opportunity" around 2022

*all #'s grossly mentally calculated

Cheers, up or out! Or IN because, regretfully (tongue in cheek), we need you!!

[panchbarnes]

16 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

This is my second year in a boarded position and I was told my performance hadn’t dropped at all and I was doing better than my first year. However, people with better records joined the Group in the last 7 months and they got strated above me, so I lost all of my strats.

I feel for you man, but the system is designed to push/filter the promotion-eligible candidates with the best chances through a small window, so the O-6s have to make some very tough decisions. 

Take some time off, regroup, return to work, remain professional, keep working hard, and look for assignments or projects that will build your credibility for the outside world (cyber, acquisitions, leadership...).  Mentor the junior officers (if they are willing to listen) so they are informed about their own careers.  Don't be one of the grumpy, ROAD dudes, because we have enough of them already.  Plus, you'll never know who you might impress in the future.

Remember, the rank doesn't define who you are as a person.

[17D_guy]

6 hours ago, panchbarnes said:

Remember, the rank doesn't define who you are as a person.

The Air Force doesn't define who you are.  Great day when I realized that.

[Lord Ratner]

Remember, the house of cards is almost entirely predicated on every officer self-enforcing 100% productivity in the hopes of getting promoted. There is no external mechanism for getting you to work more than the minimum.

Here's a little pick-me-up for the next time you don't want to do some pointless project gathering data for a commander who will just take the CYA option anyways:

Put all the numbers into Excel, but don't use borders, colors, or formulas. Add/subtract/multiply/divide things by hand and type them into the cells if necessary. Don't resize columns or rows to make the numbers fit, just leave the scientific notation.

When you get the email back asking for conditional formatting, notes, categories, borders, etc, simply point out that you have no idea how to use Excel, since the Air Force offers no course on it at PME. There is no way to "teach" it reliably. Every formula they tell you to Google is one bad keystroke away from taking longer to fix than just do themselves.

Mediocrity is a liability for a commander or DO that intends to make general. You have been freed from more than just your dreams of being a LtCol.

[14N Guy]

All excellent points. I am glad I have been able to use my experience to mentor the CGO’s under me. I let them see all of my old records and PRF’s and walk them through what strats are what tier and what push lines actually mean.

 

And hey, at the end of the day I’m a little under 4 years from getting paid for the rest of my life. That certainly helps with the “doing what you love” thing in the next chapter.

[17D_guy]

11 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Remember, the house of cards is almost entirely predicated on every officer self-enforcing 100% productivity in the hopes of getting promoted. There is no external mechanism for getting you to work more than the minimum.

Here's a little pick-me-up for the next time you don't want to do some pointless project gathering data for a commander who will just take the CYA option anyways:

Put all the numbers into Excel, but don't use borders, colors, or formulas. Add/subtract/multiply/divide things by hand and type them into the cells if necessary. Don't resize columns or rows to make the numbers fit, just leave the scientific notation.

When you get the email back asking for conditional formatting, notes, categories, borders, etc, simply point out that you have no idea how to use Excel, since the Air Force offers no course on it at PME. There is no way to "teach" it reliably. Every formula they tell you to Google is one bad keystroke away from taking longer to fix than just do themselves.

Mediocrity is a liability for a commander or DO that intends to make general. You have been freed from more than just your dreams of being a LtCol.

Had a buddy who once called me because he was a poor missile maintenance officer at Minot arriving shortly after failure #2.  His boss was up in arms about something great the Lt did, and wanted a story to sell to leadership.  CC was known for taking off he's lower ranking officer's names in emails and drafted MFR's to make it all about himself.

Told my bud to write out the MFR, print it, sign, scan and email it.  Then claim ignorance of doing a digital signature, or of saving the file to disk.

[pawnman]

Whelp, just got my PRF back.  Top 15% of all FGOs on the base... Got a P.  

Thanks for playing, I guess.  We'll see if I make it into the elite 36% promoted with a P (that's what it was last year).

[bennynova]

How can you possibly know that you are top 15% of all FGOs on a base?

 

1, sounds like speeding (by your rather).... all the Lt Cols can’t be that bad....and a good Major strat would be easier to read for the board

2.  If you are too 15% of FGOs, then you should have a #X/XX Majs.  

3.  How many FGOs are on base?

 

[bennynova]

And yes the obvious answer is that your Senior Rater rates everyone on the base.... and if that’s the case, then OK.

 

but If a senior rater rates everyone on a base, then that’s an incredibly small base, and there probably weren’t too many DPs to go around   

 

[pawnman]

1 hour ago, bennynova said:

How can you possibly know that you are top 15% of all FGOs on a base?

 

1, sounds like speeding (by your rather).... all the Lt Cols can’t be that bad....and a good Major strat would be easier to read for the board

2.  If you are too 15% of FGOs, then you should have a #X/XX Majs.  

3.  How many FGOs are on base?

 

#17/119 FGOs
#7/81 Majors

#2/8 I/APZ
Edited to reply to your follow on - it's not that small a base, but my year group has been RIF'd twice.  There's only two of us on the base.

Edited February 2, 2019 by pawnman

[Skitzo]

#17/119 FGOs
#7/81 Majors
#2/8 I/APZ
Edited to reply to your follow on - it's not that small a base, but my year group has been RIF'd twice.  There's only two of us on the base.

So he didn’t have one outright DP if it was 55% allocation. He lost at the MLR when he tried to get the #1 guy a DP thus the #1 got the silver bullet that I got “if I had a DP to give...”

Sucks man. Was pulling for you. Was your competition a sitting commander?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pawnman]

35 minutes ago, Skitzo said:

 

So he didn’t have one outright DP if it was 55% allocation. He lost at the MLR when he tried to get the #1 guy a DP thus the #1 got the silver bullet that I got “if I had a DP to give...”

Sucks man. Was pulling for you. Was your competition a sitting commander?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

No, my competition was a pilot.  If I had to lose a DP to anyone, I'm glad it's him.  

I prefer to think I lost mine to a sitting SFS commander at Minot or something.

[bennynova]

I think you’ll be fine if you have those strats.   

 

Good luck!

[frog]

2 hours ago, bennynova said:

I think you’ll be fine if you have those strats.   

 

Good luck!

This. I know that doesn’t make the wait any easier, but I’d bet a beer you get picked up.

[pawnman]

9 hours ago, frog said:

This. I know that doesn’t make the wait any easier, but I’d bet a beer you get picked up.

Awesome.  Either I'll get picked up, or I'll have free beer.  Win-win.

[Homestar]

The reality is that it's a 50/50 proposition that you get promoted to O-5 with a P.  Maybe a little under 50/50.  With a super-P ('If I had one more DP to give...") it's probably 60/40.  I was in your situation sitting with a P (it was a super-P) and got promoted.  I've previously posted my PRF in this thread so you can see that for reference.  Good luck.  The waiting is the worst.

[ThreeHoler]

The reality is that it's a 50/50 proposition that you get promoted to O-5 with a P.  Maybe a little under 50/50.  With a super-P ('If I had one more DP to give...") it's probably 60/40.  I was in your situation sitting with a P (it was a super-P) and got promoted.  I've previously posted my PRF in this thread so you can see that for reference.  Good luck.  The waiting is the worst.

It is less than 50/50 with a P and no “my next DP.” Having a strat in the PRF push line is good. Does the push say “definitely promote”, “sq/cc”, and “SDE”?