Promotion and PRF Information

[chili]

7 minutes ago, Bergman said:

Exactly correct.  Big Blue can talk about their efforts to solve the retention crisis all they want, but those percentages show they don’t really care.  If they did, the pilot numbers would be much higher.

What?

[soupafly06]

1 hour ago, Bergman said:

Exactly correct.  Big Blue can talk about their efforts to solve the retention crisis all they want, but those percentages show they don’t really care.  If they did, the pilot numbers would be much higher.

Absolutely.  I sat in on a briefing by HAF/A1 himself and a pilot stood up and told him that he knew two pilots that punched because they were passed over.  HAF/A1 then shot back that promotion is not a retention tool (and, to me at least, implied “maybe those two shouldn’t have sucked).  I was taken aback.  I can understand that promotion is based off “potential to perform at the next rank” but failing to promote absolutely leads to dudes walking and if our highest personnel leadership doesn’t see that then none of this will really change.  For what it’s worth he also stated the promotion boards are supposed to treat in and above the promotion zone records the same but the stats of the last several years seem to show otherwise.  

[chili]

19 minutes ago, soupafly06 said:

Absolutely.  I sat in on a briefing by HAF/A1 himself and a pilot stood up and told him that he knew two pilots that punched because they were passed over.  HAF/A1 then shot back that promotion is not a retention tool (and, to me at least, implied “maybe those two shouldn’t have sucked).  I was taken aback.  I can understand that promotion is based off “potential to perform at the next rank” but failing to promote absolutely leads to dudes walking and if our highest personnel leadership doesn’t see that then none of this will really change.  For what it’s worth he also stated the promotion boards are supposed to treat in and above the promotion zone records the same but the stats of the last several years seem to show otherwise.  

What stats? And how do they show otherwise?

[BashiChuni]

devils advocate...not every pilot deserves to be promoted.

are some of you arguing for 100% promotion to O-5? kind of seems that way.

[Right Seat Driver]

Just now, BashiChuni said:

devils advocate...not every pilot deserves to be promoted.

are some of you arguing for 100% promotion to O-5? kind of seems that way.

Devil's advocate, not every non-flyer deserves to be promoted. With that being said, when the promotion rates for rated dudes are 6.9% less than the non-flyer's it sends a message to the rated force.

The Air Force is in the business of projecting power and blowing shit up through airpower. I can't speak for promotion rates in the Army, but I am certain my few Army Infantry buddies would have the same complaints if the combat arms branches in the Army promoted at lower rates than the non-combat arms branches.

[panchbarnes]

49 minutes ago, soupafly06 said:

  I can understand that promotion is based off “potential to perform at the next rank”

I truly believe promotion is based off potential to promote to O6 and beyond.  If you seek mentoring with any senior officers, they will never advise/assess if your career choices/progression will take you to O5.  It's always been about whether or not you will make O6.  Combat/ops stink is only part of the O6 potential equation (for non-flyers it means even less).

 

[LookieRookie]

35 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

devils advocate...not every pilot deserves to be promoted.

are some of you arguing for 100% promotion to O-5? kind of seems that way.

I would also like a $150K per year bonus tax free that only drives a 1 year ADSC.

I could get a lot of a certain Ford pick up truck for that amount of cash.

Edited July 12, 2019 by LookieRookie

[soupafly06]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

devils advocate...not every pilot deserves to be promoted.

are some of you arguing for 100% promotion to O-5? kind of seems that way.

Why not?  Why do the proposed flying only tracks stop at O-4 and not O-5?  It would close the airline pay gap a little and more pilots may volunteer for a flying only track if so.  Speaking from my experience as one who has been passed over for O-5, the gold oak leaves start to feel like an albatross or scarlet letter at about the point your year group finishes pinning on.  The fact of the matter is, many O-5s aren’t going on to lead at the Group level or higher (unless they’re HPOs) so why not just let there be automatic promotion to O-5 since those who are going to make senior leadership positions were already selected years before.

[Duck]

Maybe I’m wrong but we basically have a flying only career track that tops out at O-4. Because if all you do is fly and scoff your desk job, in today’s environment you will make O-4, be passed over twice for O-5 and be continued until retirement. You will also be financially behind your peers who got out after 11 years and started flying for the airlines. If you don’t guarantee guys with no negative indicators a promotion to O-5 then it’s basically just relabeling what we already have now. At least an O-5 paycheck and retirement starts to make some of the math make sense...


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

[di1630]

Promotion is a direct message from an organization that they desire a person to CONTINUE. Non-promotion is saying there is no further opportunity to progress.

There are some but how many pilots are the type who are good with just working in the military as a standard job at a time where a standard airline job will pay them more and treat them better.

Promotion is definitely a retention tool.


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

[Jetpilot]

19 hours ago, Chuck17 said:

It's one of the benefits of the split line competitive category.... Flyers wont be competing with graduated Sq/CC's for O-5 promotions. 

It wont fix everything but it will fix that. 

Chuck

Do we know what what percentage of pilots the USAF intends to promote using this system?  I fear next year's promotion board is going to be a bloodbath in terms of pilot promotions to O-5 given we are unveiling two brand new, mostly untested, systems; split categories and two line PRFs.    

[FLEA]

I dunno but I heard from a friend that only 1 DP was given to a rated guy at Holloman and the other 3-4 to outgoing supoort squadron commanders so the logic makes sense.

Also, did anyone catch the one BTZ without a DP also didn't have IDE! Does that mean there is hope?

Edited July 12, 2019 by FLEA

[panchbarnes]

57 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Also, did anyone catch the one BTZ without a DP also didn't have IDE! Does that mean there is hope?

@Shaz... nah

[Notarobot]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

Also, did anyone catch the one BTZ without a DP also didn't have IDE! Does that mean there is hope?

It just means that He or She is currently at an in-residence IDE program right now and the "P" was most likely a "if I had one more DP to give" Super P

[Chuck17]

10 minutes ago, Notarobot said:

It just means that He or She is currently at an in-residence IDE program right now and the "P" was most likely a "if I had one more DP to give" Super P

Close -- try a narrative only PRF for an In-Res IDE student with a 1/XXX strat - say from a NAF/CC - that will get you there. (I saw 2x like that with Ps from the student MLR when I was at IDE -- both were great folks)

 

4 hours ago, Jetpilot said:

Do we know what percentage of pilots the USAF intends to promote using this system?   

I bet historical averages is a good place to start - especially given this years results.

 

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

I heard from a friend that only 1 DP was given to a rated guy at Holloman and the other 3-4 to outgoing supoort squadron commanders so the logic makes sense.

This BS is why the Line split has to happen ASAP.

Chuck

[frog]

10 hours ago, Right Seat Driver said:

Devil's advocate, not every non-flyer deserves to be promoted. With that being said, when the promotion rates for rated dudes are 6.9% less than the non-flyer's it sends a message to the rated force.

The Air Force is in the business of projecting power and blowing shit up through airpower. I can't speak for promotion rates in the Army, but I am certain my few Army Infantry buddies would have the same complaints if the combat arms branches in the Army promoted at lower rates than the non-combat arms branches.

The difference is that Army officers expect to move up through the battalion, brigade, and division levels. Many pilots want to stay at the “company” level or below and make O-5 and O-6. I don’t think it will ever work out that way. The split line category will get more aircrew promoted, but then they are going to do O-5 “stuff” that they don’t want to do in the first place.

They need to make the aviator bonus scalable depending on rank so that if you get passed over for O-5, your bonus is increased to compensate for the additional pay. Who cares if you don’t make O-5 if you get to stay in the squadron, fly, and make O-5 pay plus the regular bonus? You get paid like a Lt Col to do major’s work.

[CharlieHotel47]

 

17 minutes ago, frog said:

Who cares if you don’t make O-5 if you get to stay in the squadron, fly, and make O-5 pay plus the regular bonus? You get paid like a Lt Col to do major’s work.

Where do I sign up for this scenario??? For sure not in Army Aviation. Its a warrant officer's world.  

[IDALPHA]

Where is the data showing promotion rate for non-pilots that took the bonus? I think that this boils down to simple economics.... Why pay someone more when they don’t have an easy avenue to a six figure job on the outside and already committed for the next 5-6 years.... 

[pawnman]

15 minutes ago, IDALPHA said:

Where is the data showing promotion rate for non-pilots that took the bonus? I think that this boils down to simple economics.... Why pay someone more when they don’t have an easy avenue to a six figure job on the outside and already committed for the next 5-6 years.... 

Data point one: took the bonus, not a pilot, got passed over.

[olevelo]

Where is the data showing promotion rate for non-pilots that took the bonus? I think that this boils down to simple economics.... Why pay someone more when they don’t have an easy avenue to a six figure job on the outside and already committed for the next 5-6 years.... 

I'm a nav who took the bonus last year and got picked up this year finally 2APZ. As pointed out above, the PhD program I'm in was probably the deciding factor, but they obviously didn't hold the bonus against me (this was the first board I met since I got the bonus, since it was never available to old guys like me).

Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk

[pawnman]

1 hour ago, frog said:

The difference is that Army officers expect to move up through the battalion, brigade, and division levels. Many pilots want to stay at the “company” level or below and make O-5 and O-6. I don’t think it will ever work out that way. The split line category will get more aircrew promoted, but then they are going to do O-5 “stuff” that they don’t want to do in the first place.

They need to make the aviator bonus scalable depending on rank so that if you get passed over for O-5, your bonus is increased to compensate for the additional pay. Who cares if you don’t make O-5 if you get to stay in the squadron, fly, and make O-5 pay plus the regular bonus? You get paid like a Lt Col to do major’s work.

I've tried to move up to other levels.  I was told I was too critical to PCS to a non-flying job.

I am currently in a wing staff job, but clearly that didn't help.

[SFG]

8 hours ago, Jetpilot said:

Do we know what what percentage of pilots the USAF intends to promote using this system?  I fear next year's promotion board is going to be a bloodbath in terms of pilot promotions to O-5   

Goldfein: Pilot Shortage, Retention Issues ... - Air Force Magazine Jun 11, 2019 · The Air Force’s pilot shortage has “leveled off.”

I was on board with Goldfein until this.  This hit me like Welsh’s “pretty darn good.”

There may not be a bloodbath, but they’ll keep moving the shells around to keep the hopeful hopeful.  The skeptical will remain skeptical.  Anyone who tried to do what the AF told them to do 2, 4, 6, 8, or 10 years ago will get shafted as the game changes yet again.

It’s like being on a life raft in open water.  You rig up the shirt off your back to make a sail and hope for good winds before you get burned.

[Swizzle]

9 hours ago, Jetpilot said:

Do we know what what percentage of pilots the USAF intends to promote using this system?  I fear next year's promotion board is going to be a bloodbath in terms of pilot promotions to O-5 given we are unveiling two brand new, mostly untested, systems; split categories and two line PRFs.    

It depends greatly upon ole' radiator wings being administratively used as leader-in-general/of anything "badge"  and recognized, valued outisde a cockpit, in functional area promotion boards. In short, more Ops functional board quotas than support or other functional areas. In this doesn't happen, how many ops O5s by manning document posirions are needed in squadrons/groups/wings....not many, thus Ops promotion rates will drop.

Support functional areas will have this fairness debate, it's in their interests. This new system could be the rise of 'support'

I wholeheartedly presume A1 hasn't had this conversation in great enough detail.

Case example/food for thought: Pilot put in charge of MX or LRS or other support area, not their functional promotion category...in which promotion pool will they compete? What functional area gets the quota? It'll probably be granted now based upon manning documents for which A1 is responsible. 

[FLEA]

27 minutes ago, Swizzle said:

It depends greatly upon ole' radiator wings being administratively used as leader-in-general/of anything "badge"  and recognized, valued outisde a cockpit, in functional area promotion boards. In short, more Ops functional board quotas than support or other functional areas. In this doesn't happen, how many ops O5s by manning document posirions are needed in squadrons/groups/wings....not many, thus Ops promotion rates will drop.

Support functional areas will have this fairness debate, it's in their interests. This new system could be the rise of 'support'

I wholeheartedly presume A1 hasn't had this conversation in great enough detail.

Case example/food for thought: Pilot put in charge of MX or LRS or other support area, not their functional promotion category...in which promotion pool will they compete? What functional area gets the quota? It'll probably be granted now based upon manning documents for which A1 is responsible. 

 

All call by our 3-star yesterday mentioned that new promotion buckets would not change DP allocation. In other words SR's still get DPs based on total IPZ candidates and not based on "buckets." Furthermore, nothing to stop a SR from giving all the DP's to one bucket. 

[soupafly06]

14 hours ago, chili said:

What stats? And how do they show otherwise?

Reference the promotion stats from mypers that show an overall promotion rate of between 5-10% for those above the zone (depending on category).  Even if an APZer gets a DP that person is about 8% less likely to get picked up than if they were in the zone (91% chance for APZ vs 99% chance for IPZ).  If the board were truly agnostic I would think the APZ promotion rate with a “P” only (currently 3.7%) would be closer to the IPZ with “P” only rate of 49%.  Maybe it’s my crappy statistics skills here but that, to me, shows that APZ with “P” only is about 13 times less likely to get promoted than one in the zone.  With a gap that big, I think it shows the board is not agnostic at all in regards to in or above the promotion zone.