Promotion and PRF Information

[pawnman]

44 minutes ago, soupafly06 said:

Reference the promotion stats from mypers that show an overall promotion rate of between 5-10% for those above the zone (depending on category).  Even if an APZer gets a DP that person is about 8% less likely to get picked up than if they were in the zone (91% chance for APZ vs 99% chance for IPZ).  If the board were truly agnostic I would think the APZ promotion rate with a “P” only (currently 3.7%) would be closer to the IPZ with “P” only rate of 49%.  Maybe it’s my crappy statistics skills here but that, to me, shows that APZ with “P” only is about 13 times less likely to get promoted than one in the zone.  With a gap that big, I think it shows the board is not agnostic at all in regards to in or above the promotion zone.

I do wonder what the rate is for APZ, with a P, but with a filled out PRF vs guys who have given up writing them at 3+ APZ.

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, soupafly06 said:

Reference the promotion stats from mypers that show an overall promotion rate of between 5-10% for those above the zone (depending on category).  Even if an APZer gets a DP that person is about 8% less likely to get picked up than if they were in the zone (91% chance for APZ vs 99% chance for IPZ).  If the board were truly agnostic I would think the APZ promotion rate with a “P” only (currently 3.7%) would be closer to the IPZ with “P” only rate of 49%.  Maybe it’s my crappy statistics skills here but that, to me, shows that APZ with “P” only is about 13 times less likely to get promoted than one in the zone.  With a gap that big, I think it shows the board is not agnostic at all in regards to in or above the promotion zone.

The reason so many guys get passed over ABZ is that their records aren't magically going to be stronger than the IPZ year in which they were originally passed over.  It typically only gets worse 2ABZ and so on.

By and large the dudes who get passed over for O-5 were going to get passed over no matter what year they competed IPZ.  There are definitely a small handful of guys who might have made it one year vs the next, etc but that's not the majority of the guys getting passed over IPZ.  Does it suck for those guys who were on the cusp--most definitely.  But had those guys had gotten picked up then some other guy on the cusp wouldn't have made it and we would be having the same discussion.

If you're coming up on your O-5 IPZ and you've never been in a posistion above a wing then you're automatically at a disadvantage--hopefully you're the master at your trade at that point...but let's face it, there are only a few of those, at least on paper (and he gets the DP at the wing as a pilot).  If you're not an IDE in res type guy, you're more likely to promote if your record looks like you're a pretty decent jack of all trades...and unless you've had a couple killer deployments, squadron job after squadron job with a sprinkle a one or two Group or Wing jobs probably won't cut it.  Duty titles matter on a PRF.

I'm not saying I like the current system (there are pros and cons) but at least for this board, this is how things are generally viewed IMO.

[HeloDude]

4 hours ago, pawnman said:

I've tried to move up to other levels.  I was told I was too critical to PCS to a non-flying job.

I am currently in a wing staff job, but clearly that didn't help.

The hard truth why you weren't PCSd to a job outside of the wing is that others were being pushed above you.  I know that sucks to hear, but that's the truth and someone in a leadership posistion didn't have the guts to tell you.  Ten years ago it might have been different and you would have maybe been able to squeak a job into a NAF or DRU (i.e. Safety Center, AFOTEC, etc), but with the rated manning the way it is, only so many non school guys are going to be sent to staff.

As for the Wing job, unfortunately I'm not suprised.  I was a Wing DS and sat on several wing strat meetings with the CV and all the Group CCs (I was the one fighting for the folks in the WSA).  What I learned is that there were two kind of rated guys sent to the wing: One with an above average record who was being sent by the OG to expand their resume (usually a late 2nd assignment senior Capt or brand new Major)...the other kind of person was an average 3rd assignment Major that got brought up to just do a different job.  And when it came to the wing strats, if I fought for a wing rated guy that the OG didn't already have as one of his top 1/3 guys, he would question and fight me why that guy should be strat'd at the wing.  And here I am, an O-5, trying to fight for who I believe deserves it...but ultimately, we're all owned by the OG (yes, even the guys in coded wing safety billets).  Now getting one of the WSA rated guys a decent strat who the OG knew/thought a lot of was easy...then it was just a shell game of why he should be #7 vs #8 out of all the base FGOs.  

After my first round of doing this, I told the Sq CCs to not believethat pushing an average O-4 in the Ops Group for a Wing job is somehow going to magically help them out...rarely it did.

In closing, it sucks you didn't make it.  You come across as intelligent, hard working, and passionate and I imagine you were on the cusp of making it.  As others have said, the board results do not define you as an officer or WSO, and most importantly as a human being.  I wish you the best and if there's any other info I can provide you offline then shoot me a PM.

[Homestar]

I've never sat in on a stratification discussion with O-6s, but it seems to me that there are two kinds of strats.  One kind is for the fast burner who is going to be a Wg/CC or GO someday.  Those come in early and are out of sync with the peer group.  Getting a wing strat as a young Captain for example.  The rest of the strats go to the guys approaching IPZ.  When I was IPZ to O-5 the strats went #1-4 to those of us IPZ who all just happened to be working at the Wing at the time.  My guess is that #5-9 went to a couple younger FGOs who were on track to be DPs IPZ the next year.  All my strats on my record started to appear as I was reaching IPZ for a promotion.  Then they magically disappeared once I made the next rank.  Got to make room for the next round of #1-4s.

Not sure if this is how it works at other Wings.  I was fortunate to meet the IPZ board while working for a stellar Wg/CC who seemed to like me and thought I was doing a good job.  I also recognize that I was lucky to get promoted without school in-res having never worked above the Wing.

[HeloDude]

27 minutes ago, Homestar said:

I've never sat in on a stratification discussion with O-6s, but it seems to me that there are two kinds of strats.  One kind is for the fast burner who is going to be a Wg/CC or GO someday.  Those come in early and are out of sync with the peer group.  Getting a wing strat as a young Captain for example.  The rest of the strats go to the guys approaching IPZ.  When I was IPZ to O-5 the strats went #1-4 to those of us IPZ who all just happened to be working at the Wing at the time.  My guess is that #5-9 went to a couple younger FGOs who were on track to be DPs IPZ the next year.  All my strats on my record started to appear as I was reaching IPZ for a promotion.  Then they magically disappeared once I made the next rank.  Got to make room for the next round of #1-4s.

Not sure if this is how it works at other Wings.  I was fortunate to meet the IPZ board while working for a stellar Wg/CC who seemed to like me and thought I was doing a good job.  I also recognize that I was lucky to get promoted without school in-res having never worked above the Wing.

Not how it worked when I had a seat at the table and nor should it work the way you describe.  The #1 Major in the wing when I was the DS was a 2nd year Major (pilot), and he was pretty damn sharp, but was not an IDE select on his board.  The #2 Major was the lead JAG and he was definitely a sharp officer...but also wasn't meeting his IPZ board for a couple years.  I also saw 2nd year Captains getting a wing strat, and it's not because they were being discussed as a future GO.

Only a very small percentage of CGOs will ever be a Wg CC and a much even smaller percentage will be a General.  I'm not saying that senior leaders can't (and don't) highlight these individuals early on, but they only take a few of the top strats.  Most top strats are earned by just above average officers...and a lot of it is luck/timing.  Case in point, the MSG at a UPT base has a much smaller pool of officers compared to the OG, yet the MSG gets a higher/disproportionate amount of wing strats compared to the OG--I've seen this happen with my own eyes.  The problem is that the OG doesn't completely want to piss off the MSG and tell him that more than half of his rated guys are better than the SFS Captain, so they "spread the wealth around" and the slighty above average SFS Captain gets a wing strat and the slighty above average pilot doesn't even get mentioned.  Now all things being equal, which one eventually has a better chance at making O-5?  Bingo...

[SFG]

5 hours ago, Swizzle said:

Case example/food for thought: Pilot put in charge of MX or LRS or other support area, not their functional promotion category...in which promotion pool will they compete? What functional area gets the quota? It'll probably be granted now based upon manning documents for which A1 is responsible. 

They've already said that you will always compete in your core AFSC.  Doesn't matter if you've spent the last 1-10 years in a non-standard, non-traditional, or out-of-core area.

[pbar]

4 hours ago, pawnman said:

I do wonder what the rate is for APZ, with a P, but with a filled out PRF vs guys who have given up writing them at 3+ APZ.

I know a B-1 WSO who made O-5 like 4 or 5 APZ.  I know 2-3 B-1 pilots who made it 1 APZ too.  I also know a B-1 WSO who made O-4 7 APZ.

[bennynova]

2 hours ago, Homestar said:

I've never sat in on a stratification discussion with O-6s, but it seems to me that there are two kinds of strats.  One kind is for the fast burner who is going to be a Wg/CC or GO someday.  Those come in early and are out of sync with the peer group.  Getting a wing strat as a young Captain for example.  The rest of the strats go to the guys approaching IPZ.  When I was IPZ to O-5 the strats went #1-4 to those of us IPZ who all just happened to be working at the Wing at the time.  My guess is that #5-9 went to a couple younger FGOs who were on track to be DPs IPZ the next year.  All my strats on my record started to appear as I was reaching IPZ for a promotion.  Then they magically disappeared once I made the next rank.  Got to make room for the next round of #1-4s.

Not sure if this is how it works at other Wings.  I was fortunate to meet the IPZ board while working for a stellar Wg/CC who seemed to like me and thought I was doing a good job.  I also recognize that I was lucky to get promoted without school in-res having never worked above the Wing.

Yes, that’s how it works at most places

there are also some BPZs sprinkles in.  

[soupafly06]

9 hours ago, IDALPHA said:

Where is the data showing promotion rate for non-pilots that took the bonus? I think that this boils down to simple economics.... Why pay someone more when they don’t have an easy avenue to a six figure job on the outside and already committed for the next 5-6 years.... 

I want to believe there’s some kind of conspiracy that leads to this but I just don’t think it’s true.  Once you’ve been passed over twice you either get the boot or you get offered continuation.  Continuation is purely voluntary and is the ultimate “get out of jail free card.”  All ADSCs are waived though you would have to pay back portions of the bonus.  I would think board members would realize this when making their judgements.

[Kenny Powers]

I have know idea what APZ, BTZ, IPZ, Triple double DP IPZ means, but this all seems fucked up.

[Swizzle]

4 hours ago, Klepto said:

They've already said that you will always compete in your core AFSC.  Doesn't matter if you've spent the last 1-10 years in a non-standard, non-traditional, or out-of-core area.

Exactly....will these on-loan positions be valued in the new system? Or will only core events for the functional areas be valued towards promotion by only that functional area? Aka outisde the tribe penalty...

[slc]

2 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

I have know idea what APZ, BTZ, IPZ, Triple double DP IPZ means, but this all seems ed up.

You said it brother. It’s amazing that I can make O5 in the ARC and have no idea what a super P/double DP etc is!!

[Bigred]

14 hours ago, pbar said:

 I also know a B-1 WSO who made O-4 7 APZ.

The Air Force offers continuation to non-select Captains? 

[bennynova]

1 hour ago, Bigred said:

The Air Force offers continuation to non-select Captains? 

Yes

   To 20 years.   Majors to 24

[Bigred]

16 hours ago, bennynova said:

Yes

   To 20 years.   Majors to 24

Learning has occurred. Thanks. 

[jrizzell]

For the group, has anyone heard of people who didn’t get promoted to O5 IPZ, but then also got a non-continuation paperwork this board. Asking for a friend 

[bennynova]

 

2 hours ago, jrizzell said:

For the group, has anyone heard of people who didn’t get promoted to O5 IPZ, but then also got a non-continuation paperwork this board. Asking for a friend 

I didn’t think that was possible

[Skitzo]

So the 1/3 DPs ATZ that did not get promoted that I know told me today that the feedback was “inconsistent sq/cc pushes in his record.”

 

FWIW.

 

Push for Sq/CC is a go/no-go.

 

Not sure what his record is but if any of you have inconsistent pushes ala “Sq/CC next” on one OPR and receive a “Groom or monitor” on your next OPR you could be in trouble.

 

Don’t sign that next OPR until you schedule an appt with that rater, addl rater or senior rater.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[celtic020]

2 hours ago, Skitzo said:

So the 1/3 DPs ATZ that did not get promoted that I know told me today that the feedback was “inconsistent sq/cc pushes in his record.”

 

FWIW.

 

Push for Sq/CC is a go/no-go.

 

Not sure what his record is but if any of you have inconsistent pushes ala “Sq/CC next” on one OPR and receive a “Groom or monitor” on your next OPR you could be in trouble.

 

Don’t sign that next OPR until you schedule an appt with that rater, addl rater or senior rater.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

ATZ though.  ATZ non select feedback is different than IPZ feedback and BPZ feedback.  Maybe they’ve said it’s to be treated the same as IPZ abut it’s not, no matter their newfound ATZ “intent”.  

[Pitt4401]

13 hours ago, bennynova said:

 

I didn’t think that was possible

I worked at AFPC and it is very possible. Your SR is given instructions on how to extend (or not extend) continuation. 

If a SR elects to deny continuation it's seen as an adverse action (no kidding). I forget what justifications need to be made, but I remember calling a passed over Major and pleading with him to do a mea culpa to his SR...the O-4 had stepped on his crank in a colossal manner and didn't fully realize how much he had poisoned the well.

 

Edited July 16, 2019 by Pitt4401

[bennynova]

Just to ensure we are all talking about the same thing, the question seemed to be if it was possible to both be non-selected for promotion in you IPZ year and at the same time being forced out before your first 1APZ board??

 

[NKAWTG]

13 hours ago, Skitzo said:

So the 1/3 DPs ATZ that did not get promoted that I know told me today that the feedback was “inconsistent sq/cc pushes in his record.”

 

FWIW.

 

Push for Sq/CC is a go/no-go.

 

Not sure what his record is but if any of you have inconsistent pushes ala “Sq/CC next” on one OPR and receive a “Groom or monitor” on your next OPR you could be in trouble.

 

Don’t sign that next OPR until you schedule an appt with that rater, addl rater or senior rater.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

No "could" about it.  If you get a Sq/CC push on one OPR, followed by something less than that, it is a signal to the board that you are in the lower half of the strat pool.  Lack of a strat, coupled with a downgrade in job push means you probably won't get promoted.  That's your signal to start hitting up guard units or polishing the resume.    

[SFG]

To make sure I’m tracking, word on the street is that we must push folks for “Sq/CC” as Majors and if we don’t (and it’s not consistent on their last 2 or 3 OPRs) they will not make Lt Col, regardless of other factors (strats, performance, IDE, etc)?

[BashiChuni]

only winning move is to not play!

good luck to those who still put up with the AF/AFPC shenanigans!

[bennynova]

2 hours ago, Klepto said:

To make sure I’m tracking, word on the street is that we must push folks for “Sq/CC” as Majors and if we don’t (and it’s not consistent on their last 2 or 3 OPRs) they will not make Lt Col, regardless of other factors (strats, performance, IDE, etc)?

A BAD progression of pushes is not in and of itself a promotion killer, but it certainly affects a mid-grade record.  

There certainly is a secret decoder ring for all of this:

Strats:  looking for Strats in your rank, or as you get higher, Strats in your sq/cc title, etc

opr push lines:  a consistent message of school, sq/CC, and staff pushes is part of the equation.   Being pushed for a majcom or NAF staff is not a good thing. HAF is 70% of us. JT staff is top tier.  

PRF: it needs to match the OPR with those pushes.   

The verbiage of definitely promote is a message.  The check box of definitely promote is obviously the strongest message

a strat amongst board eligibles in PRF is also a message.

 

  

Edited July 16, 2019 by bennynova