Promotion and PRF Information

[MCO]

On 4/22/2020 at 10:52 PM, CaptainMorgan said:

Just got my PRF. Anyone know where “Promote now” ranks in the hierarchy of pushes?  Obviously, “If I had one more DP,” or “Definitely Promote” with a P would have been better. On the E side, Promote Now beats Must Promote, is the same true for Os in the eyes of the board?

From my limited time working these, honestly very average but better than not having it. On the O side you want the definitely promote or the if I had one more line. Yours basically says if your records are good enough, promote him, but he isn’t my top. Not having the promote now however would be a message that they don’t think you are ready. We just switched to a whole new system though so who knows what normal is now.

Edited April 25, 2020 by MCO

[ThreeHoler]

Just got my PRF. Anyone know where “Promote now” ranks in the hierarchy of pushes?  Obviously, “If I had one more DP,” or “Definitely Promote” with a P would have been better. On the E side, Promote Now beats Must Promote, is the same true for Os in the eyes of the board?

You have a 99% chance of being passed over.

[CaptainMorgan]

You have a 99% chance of being passed over.

Sounds about right


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dream big]

10 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 

You have a 99% chance of being passed over.

 

This is the BS I hate about the Air Force promotion system, why is there a secret language? For instance, the wording on when you’re ready for Sq/CC on the push line can be really stellar or killer for promotion.  Why not just give people honest feedback instead of mincing words on an OPR?

As a young exec I saw a SQ/CC OPR come through that said “staff blah blah..WG/CV next,” I thought to my self at the time, that’s pretty good! Then someone explained to me that if you don’t have a Wing/CC push as a Sq/CC you’re pretty much garbage ..

I would like to see us move to more of an Army / Marine evaluation system.  I’d rather be told I’m 19/20 FGOs like you would in the Marines and be given honest feedback then the uncertain BS push line language we have now. 

[pawnman]

10 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 

You have a 99% chance of being passed over.

 

I got passed over with "if I had one more DP" on my bottom line.

Not optimistic about my chances with "promote now" and #5/10 eligibles as 1 APZ.  Buy I can stop doing any kind of careerist stuff and focus on QOL.  I'll never have to take about job or volunteer for another project "because it will be good for your OPR".

There's a certain freedom in that.

[HU&W]

2 hours ago, dream big said:

This is the BS I hate about the Air Force promotion system, why is there a secret language? For instance, the wording on when you’re ready for Sq/CC on the push line can be really stellar or killer for promotion.  Why not just give people honest feedback instead of mincing words on an OPR?

Because the A1 and AFPC cohort believe they have to keep the blinders on the middle 80% to retain sufficient numbers of eligibles for senior positions.  Everybody knows who #1 is, and most people know who #2 is.  We all also know who the bottom 10% are.  The trick is making #3 thru #75 all believe they’re #3 and that they have a chance. That way, they’re all willing to do the things that are expected of #3 and if #3 thru #25 all punch, we can pretend #26 was #3 all along, and he’ll believe it.  If the middle thinks they’re, out of the running, A1 and AFPC will lose their denominator. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by HU&W

[jrizzell]

Unfortunately meeting your O-5 board with anything other than a DP checked PRF essentially boils down to a coin flip; probably less, but I haven’t looked at AFPC stats recently. It’s a kick to the junk when you thought you “checked” all the boxes, but still end up in the P bucket. Just remember promotions don’t define you, they just open up different career paths. 

[CaptainMorgan]

It’s 90% promote rate for the rated and special warfare category, per mypers, and DP allocation was still only 50%.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tommy]

Does anyone know if that 90% was for just IPZ or does that 90% promotion rate include everyone in the zone and above?

[CaptainMorgan]

Does anyone know if that 90% was for just IPZ or does that 90% promotion rate include everyone in the zone and above?

Guessing the 90% is based off the number of IPZ eligible, any APZ promotees will decrease the effective rate for IPZ.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VariEze]

1 hour ago, CaptainMorgan said:

Guessing the 90% is based off the number of IPZ eligible, any APZ promotees will decrease the effective rate for IPZ.
 

Keep in mind the SecAF sent a directive to the board this year that they are NOT to consider how many times someone is passed over.  It's I/APZ, and that memo effectively makes all the APZs 1-above.  Or 2-above...however the board member applies their subjectivity.  Same DP allocation %, and it wouldn't be hard if that member wanted to look at DOR, "but not take that into account".  Yeah.  Hmmmm...

[pawnman]

1 minute ago, VariEze said:

Keep in mind the SecAF sent a directive to the board this year that they are NOT to consider how many times someone is passed over.  It's I/APZ, and that memo effectively makes all the APZs 1-above.  Or 2-above...however the board member applies their subjectivity.  Same DP allocation %, and it wouldn't be hard if that member wanted to look at DOR, "but not take that into account".  Yeah.  Hmmmm...

Doesn't the SURF still show how many times you've met a board?

[VariEze]

Yeah I don't know how that direction will be implemented - I heard about it then read the directive.  It doesn't go into more details so maybe the board will address with masking some stuff - but I doubt it.  

[Chuck17]

On 4/25/2020 at 10:55 AM, dream big said:

This is the BS I hate about the Air Force promotion system, why is there a secret language? For instance, the wording on when you’re ready for Sq/CC on the push line can be really stellar or killer for promotion.  Why not just give people honest feedback instead of mincing words on an OPR?

As a young exec I saw a SQ/CC OPR come through that said “staff blah blah..WG/CV next,” I thought to my self at the time, that’s pretty good! Then someone explained to me that if you don’t have a Wing/CC push as a Sq/CC you’re pretty much garbage ..

To be fair, this has been corrected in the AFI. 

There is definitely a nuance to the report language however. Here’s the guidelines I’ve been given (from an O-9) and what I’ve been using ever since:

1. NEVER strat anyone “top 10% of xxx” - put a number on it.

2. Typically strat only the top 10-15% of your folks.

3. Dont strat as FGOs or CGOs - strats rate folks against groups of Peer rank (xx of xx LtCols, Captains), Peer Job (x of xx Flt/CCs), Peer specialty (x of xx IPs) - in that tiered order of preference. 

4. Exception: If you don’t get stratted against the other Sq/CCs when you’re a Sq/CC - you’re not in the running. Put another way: if you have a report as a Sq/CC that strats you as a LtCol instead of a Sq/CC... especially in your second year of command... then you’re not in the top - even if you’re the #1 LtCol as a 2nd year Sq/CC, that’s a second tier strat and it sends a message. 

5. Push lines - they include Job, School, Staff/Command (whichever is next). You cannot push Sq/CCs as Wing/CCs - but you can push them as Vice/Group CCs (i.e. the next step). 

6. Other than a top strat, Ownership - as in “personal-note on the OPR-style-wording” is the best possible message relayed on an OPR. If your senior rater says “My x/xx Captains” that’s good. If they rewrite a top or bottom line to say: “Read carefully: the most talent, maturity, and leadership I’ve seen in a Major in 28 years: a must for Sq/CC, then JS & SDE” - that draws attention.

7. GOs know when there’s speeding on OPRs or PRFs. If they see it, they’ll call the speeder out on it - or they will disregard the records that individual pushed to the board. I’ve seen both happen (epic asschewing!) and it doesn’t work out well. 

So you if you know what to look for, you‘ll know where you stand. 

Some dudes have flat out amazing records - theyve DGd everything, did the WIC, always been number 1, went to IDE, etc etc. Theyre unicorns.

The vast majority have records that build... You get to a base, turn a few heads, the next year you upgrade, get a strat, maybe get a group job, then get a wing strat, etc etc. Almost nobody shows up and starts pulling #1s out the gate. They instead build a record of performance and a reliable reputation. 

Guess which cohort the vast majority of the GOs come from? Unicorns burn out; they rarely stay. The service is run by high performing dudes who were always in the running but not quite preordained as the next CSAF. 

Anyone who says otherwise hasn’t seen their records. 

YMMV, but there’s a method to the madness.

Chuck

Edited April 26, 2020 by Chuck17
Spellings very hard

[Negatory]

F&@$ that.

 

That is all.

[di1630]

Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

[17D_guy]

On 4/26/2020 at 6:38 AM, Chuck17 said:

To be fair, this has been corrected in the AFI. 

Good words

YMMV, but there’s a method to the madness.

Chuck

Chuck covered what I've seen in my rapidly dwindling career. 

I'm an "also ran" who isn't going to stick it out because the AF decides I can't do "X Job" until I've paid certain dues.  Being a DO fucking ruined this for me. 

I've had to explain to my young CGO's repeatedly that I'm not a HPO/Unicorn/whatever even with really good strats and good jobs.  Doubly so since the outgoing Group/CC fucked me with no-strat last OPR, so glad that prick retired.  When a group/cc strats a Capt to keep a streak alive despite the Sq/CC saying he don't deserve it...you know it's time to hang it up.

With 18-days left to terminal my family and I have decided not to play for a multitude of reasons.  But the number one I'm seeing now is being able to tell someone I'm not interested in a job/location and there's nothing they can do about it.  And if I ever run into someone unable to manage as that former group/cc I can ask for an insane amount of money, or walk.

It just wasn't worth it to stick around 7-more years (min. 3 moves) before retiring in grade as a O5 "hopefully" to be closing out as a Sq/CC trying to find a job at almost 50.  Only thing keeping me was the basically-zero possibility of BPZ.

[14N Guy]

On 4/25/2020 at 9:23 PM, VariEze said:

Yeah I don't know how that direction will be implemented - I heard about it then read the directive.  It doesn't go into more details so maybe the board will address with masking some stuff - but I doubt it.  

Even if they mask it, since the AF moved to the AFSC-specific promo boards, it seems like there is a better chance than not that this guidance will be disregarded.

 

Its been said multiple times, but, w/o a DP you have about a 1% chance of getting promoted APZ. The stigma Senior AF leaders attach to that designation is too much to overcome. Once you are APZ you are essentially worthless in the eyes of the AF and serve to fill the jobs that the service doesn’t want to really expend resources on.

 

Which is fine with me because I’ve never had an easier job with more time to do what I want while still seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. The freedom is a real thing, and once you realize that you are getting paid peanuts by the AF for the skills/experience private companies kill for, it makes you feel a lot better about the future.

[bennynova]

I’m guessing board went off as expected?

 

are the following ones still delayed?

[Bigred]

3 hours ago, bennynova said:

I’m guessing board went off as expected?

 

are the following ones still delayed?

Tracker on myPers says it convened on 4 May but hasn’t been updated to reflect adjournment. 

[14N Guy]

On 5/22/2020 at 3:46 PM, Bigred said:

Tracker on myPers says it convened on 4 May but hasn’t been updated to reflect adjournment. 

Tracker has been updated and states the board adjourned 19 May. Is that longer than the boards used to take?

[Bigred]

9 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

Tracker has been updated and states the board adjourned 19 May. Is that longer than the boards used to take?

Seems like it but I dunno for sure.

[celtic020]

14 hours ago, Bigred said:

Seems like it but I dunno for sure.

About 2 weeks for a new O-5 board with all these funky categories.  Seems like a decent timetable in my estimation (I don't have any unique insight or inside source) but it doesn't seem like much longer than a normal O-5 board.  I'm IPZ this year....whatever the hell that means with the new system.  

[pawnman]

17 hours ago, celtic020 said:

About 2 weeks for a new O-5 board with all these funky categories.  Seems like a decent timetable in my estimation (I don't have any unique insight or inside source) but it doesn't seem like much longer than a normal O-5 board.  I'm IPZ this year....whatever the hell that means with the new system.  

I guess now we wait six-ish months for that list to wind its way through the bureaucracy.

[VariEze]

The white board in the J1 office here says “~Aug 20”. I’m guessing mid-month


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app