Promotion and PRF Information

[grasshopper]

Seems like a weird comment. Trolling? The data shows that back in your day the promotion rate to O-6 was 45%. Today the promotion opportunity is 50%. Also today, most pilots are promoted within the same competitive category, so they’re mainly competing against each other and not the bigger Air Force.

[WheelsOff]

2 hours ago, grasshopper said:

Seems like a weird comment. Trolling? The data shows that back in your day the promotion rate to O-6 was 45%. Today the promotion opportunity is 50%. Also today, most pilots are promoted within the same competitive category, so they’re mainly competing against each other and not the bigger Air Force.

Unless the military downsizes big time, the promotion percentage to O-6 has to drastically increase in the coming years…the eligible pool continues to shrink by the day.

I remember a decade ago as an Lt seeing how even the promotion boards to O-4 were a huge deal…I literally just had to fog a mirror and have a pulse when it was my turn.  

Edited April 29, 2023 by WheelsOff

[BeefBears]

7 hours ago, grasshopper said:

Seems like a weird comment. Trolling? The data shows that back in your day the promotion rate to O-6 was 45%. Today the promotion opportunity is 50%. Also today, most pilots are promoted within the same competitive category, so they’re mainly competing against each other and not the bigger Air Force.

Yeah it does seem like trolling.  I'm happy retiring as a lt col without losing my soul in the pentagon and not moving my family every 1-2 years, thanks. 

[Dogs-N-Guns]

The O-6 LAF-A board for 2021 and 2022 was over 85% for a 'P' with an advanced degree and PME complete. If you check the boxes the odds are pretty good. Best of whats left promotion system.

[grasshopper]

4 hours ago, Dogs-N-Guns said:

The O-6 LAF-A board for 2021 and 2022 was over 85% for a 'P' with an advanced degree and PME complete. If you check the boxes the odds are pretty good. Best of whats left promotion system.

56.7% and 56.1% in 2022 and 2021, respectively, in the zone. https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/08/03/over-500-airmen-promoted-to-colonel-as-open-slots-stagnate/
Someone might drastically increase their chances by doing SDE in-correspondence, but even with that, those numbers are more than fogging a mirror.

I don’t plan on doing SDE in-correspondence. The jobs I’m being asked to do and the people I’m being asked to lead at this stage, and my family, deserve better. I’m not going to divide my time further.

But I’m also not going to take a dump on the people doing it and getting promoted. I’ve not once been able to say this life is easy, and if they want more of it and can, or are willing to do what the system is asking of them, good on them.

[Guardian]

I wish they would make it easier to voluntarily demote.

[FLEA]

19 minutes ago, grasshopper said:

56.7% and 56.1% in 2022 and 2021, respectively, in the zone. https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/08/03/over-500-airmen-promoted-to-colonel-as-open-slots-stagnate/
Someone might drastically increase their chances by doing SDE in-correspondence, but even with that, those numbers are more than fogging a mirror.

I don’t plan on doing SDE in-correspondence. The jobs I’m being asked to do and the people I’m being asked to lead at this stage, and my family, deserve better. I’m not going to divide my time further.

But I’m also not going to take a dump on the people doing it and getting promoted. I’ve not once been able to say this life is easy, and if they want more of it and can, or are willing to do what the system is asking of them, good on them.

 

Just curious, asking hypothetically because I was in a very similar position to you with ACSC when I decided to get out as a Major. What would it take for you to do SDE? 

My personal thoughts were the academic rigor of ACSC online were so abysmal I found it insulting to be asked to expend time on it. I did maybe 1/3 before I decided this was a waste of my time which could be better expended elsewhere. For me personally, I think if the program actually had merit and actually offered meaningful improvement on my understanding of leadership and air power, I may have spent time on it. Some way to enforce completion during duty time would be nice too. 

[FourFans]

3 hours ago, grasshopper said:

Someone might drastically increase their chances by doing SDE in-correspondence

3 hours ago, grasshopper said:

I’m also not going to take a dump on the people doing it and getting promoted

No.   No you definitely should.  Please.  Yes, please definitely do that.

[grasshopper]

8 hours ago, FLEA said:

Just curious, asking hypothetically because I was in a very similar position to you with ACSC when I decided to get out as a Major. What would it take for you to do SDE? 

I did maybe 1/3 before I decided this was a waste of my time which could be better expended elsewhere. For me personally, I think if the program actually had merit and actually offered meaningful improvement on my understanding of leadership and air power, I may have spent time on it. 

If they sent me in-residence I would do it. I think there is a lot of value in the face-to-face sharing of experiences and networking to solve bigger Air Force problems, engage with different perspectives, and grow as a leader and a person.

I’m with you on the content. I also started SDE in-correspondence at one point after much encouragement by my leadership, and it wasn’t for me. What I saw in SDE online was not engaging enough that I felt like it was worth the time it required - and I have a hard time BSing. I stopped after giving it the old college try when I was  prompted to write about real-world challenges and leadership dilemmas… I felt that I actually needed to dedicate my time to those real-world things instead of sitting in front of a computer. Plus, writing at the sub-FOUO level felt a bit inane when they wanted you to use real examples.

[FLEA]

On 4/30/2023 at 6:41 AM, grasshopper said:

If they sent me in-residence I would do it. I think there is a lot of value in the face-to-face sharing of experiences and networking to solve bigger Air Force problems, engage with different perspectives, and grow as a leader and a person.

I’m with you on the content. I also started SDE in-correspondence at one point after much encouragement by my leadership, and it wasn’t for me. What I saw in SDE online was not engaging enough that I felt like it was worth the time it required - and I have a hard time BSing. I stopped after giving it the old college try when I was  prompted to write about real-world challenges and leadership dilemmas… I felt that I actually needed to dedicate my time to those real-world things instead of sitting in front of a computer. Plus, writing at the sub-FOUO level felt a bit inane when they wanted you to use real examples.

For me, personally, I'd even do it DL/OL IF, big IF, they assigned it as your full time job from home station and you had no other officer or additional duties. Aircrew can still fly on occasion for RAP/Currency, but zero other duties. Also, the academic rigor needs to be made worthwhile. 

[pawnman]

On 4/29/2023 at 10:40 PM, FLEA said:

 

Just curious, asking hypothetically because I was in a very similar position to you with ACSC when I decided to get out as a Major. What would it take for you to do SDE? 

My personal thoughts were the academic rigor of ACSC online were so abysmal I found it insulting to be asked to expend time on it. I did maybe 1/3 before I decided this was a waste of my time which could be better expended elsewhere. For me personally, I think if the program actually had merit and actually offered meaningful improvement on my understanding of leadership and air power, I may have spent time on it. Some way to enforce completion during duty time would be nice too. 

I did the senior leadership group and tapped out.  Mostly because it seems worthless, but also because I don't really want to make O-6. I want to retire in a couple years where I'm currently stationed. I don't want to lose all control of my career and be moved every 6-12 months to fill an O-6 job somewhere. I'm not competitive to be a commander, so whatever job I would get would likely be a soul-sucking staff job at a MAJCOM or something similar.

Pass. I'll just ride out what I've got and take my $70k/year pension.

[dream big]

Word on the street is LAF-A 0-5 list is out. Initial RUMINT is low 70s overall. 

[Constant Hotsauce]

4 hours ago, dream big said:

Word on the street is LAF-A 0-5 list is out. Initial RUMINT is low 70s overall. 

Can confirm, plus I/N/X/F.

[busdriver]

On 4/29/2023 at 8:16 PM, grasshopper said:

56.7% and 56.1% in 2022 and 2021, respectively, in the zone. https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2022/08/03/over-500-airmen-promoted-to-colonel-as-open-slots-stagnate/

Just to clarify this for the younger folks, you obviously know this and have made up your mind.

------------------

Those numbers are all eligible O-5s in the zone, not just those who "tried to move up."  You really need to see the % numbers for with and without SDE/DP/AAD/CC to get a good picture.

As an example: back in 2016, the common O-5 board results ended up around 75ish percent promotion.  But if you factored in P/DP, the results ended up almost 100% promotion with a DP.  So if you went to the board with a P, it was roughly 50/50 in the zone.  Which is what makes IDE and, depending on where in the sin wave we are, a masters important.  The "lack of" is a negative highlight.  Anything that makes for an easy time to find that cutline will end up being used.  It's just how it goes. 

SDE, AAD, graduated sq/cc.  If you have those things on your O-6 board and a DP, you're getting promoted (high probability).  

[uscmas412]

LAF-A O-6 statistics paint a more rosy picture.  IPZ, SDE complete, advanced degree, with a P = 85% select rate. Take out SDE and it's still a 31% select rate. 

 

 

[FourFans]

So if you have a pulse you can be the best rest of what's left...

[Bigred]

59 minutes ago, uscmas412 said:

LAF-A O-6 statistics paint a more rosy picture.  IPZ, SDE complete, advanced degree, with a P = 85% select rate. Take out SDE and it's still a 31% select rate. 

 

 

Sq/cc factor in to that?

[uscmas412]

2 minutes ago, Bigred said:

Sq/cc factor in to that?

I'm sure it does, but that line item is not broken out.  Only other item I found interesting is that USAFA grads have an overall ~10% greater selection rate, IPZ.  

[HossHarris]

3 hours ago, uscmas412 said:

I'm sure it does, but that line item is not broken out.  Only other item I found interesting is that USAFA grads have an overall ~10% greater selection rate, IPZ.  

As we should … obviously 

[Danger41]

I think OTS dudes should have the highest percentage since it took me 12 weeks what took you guys 4 years. That’s efficiency!

[SocialD]

1 hour ago, Danger41 said:

I think OTS dudes should have the highest percentage since it took me 12 weeks what took you guys 4 years. That’s efficiency!

 

 

You want efficiency...6 weeks at the ole  Academy of Military science!   Too bad they shut it down.  

[Danger41]

13 hours ago, SocialD said:

 

 

You want efficiency...6 weeks at the ole  Academy of Military science!   Too bad they shut it down.  

You keep up this level of efficiency and you’ll get put back on long term orders. Careful!

Edited May 15, 2023 by Danger41

[maj_pain]

On 5/14/2023 at 9:10 AM, Constant Hotsauce said:

Can confirm, plus I/N/X/F.

 

On 5/14/2023 at 5:06 AM, dream big said:

Word on the street is LAF-A 0-5 list is out. Initial RUMINT is low 70s overall. 

Dang.  The tracker as of this AM has it not even being reported into OSD.  Wonder when they will establish public release.  

[DirkDiggler]

1 hour ago, maj_pain said:

 

Dang.  The tracker as of this AM has it not even being reported into OSD.  Wonder when they will establish public release.  

Should be o/a 18 May, guys at my base got advised of the results last Friday.

[maj_pain]

3 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

Should be o/a 18 May, guys at my base got advised of the results last Friday.

Do you (or anyone) know when public release is?  I work for civilians so they likely are not paying attention.