Promotion and PRF Information

[MDDieselPilot]

11 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

Your chances look good.  The command bullets you've got and the "super P" push are foundational for the current promotion climate.  What kind of command push did you get?  "Ready for command now" or something to that degree is good.  If it's something along the lines of "on track to command", that communicates that you're not ready yet in the eyes of that rater.

My frame of reference is once passed over (about to be twice based on my current PRF) ops guy.  WIC, Det/CC, good strats, but never sat gp/wg exec, didn't get good PRF strats nor command pushes for various opaque "command decision" reasons.  I've been through the counseling.  The command push and command potential is what seems to be the current flavor of the week for the promotion boards.

From what I've been told and what I've seen, your super P and your demonstrated command capability should land you with about a 75% chance or greater. 

Note: If you haven't don't the primary mission of the USAF recently, that will not hurt you at all.

What's the current thought on having "Def Promote" in the push line, but a P overall...carry any weight, or meaningless?

I'm IPZ this year and just got my prf back with a P.  Loads of combat time, few DGs (though honestly they're from flying programs and not school, so I cynically think they carry less weight), few lower level awards, and small, but consistent strats.  I fully expect to get passed over. 

You have the number to that truck driving school we saw on tv, Truck Masters I think it was?  I might need that.

[Homestar]

15 minutes ago, MDDieselPilot said:

What's the current thought on having "Def Promote" in the push line, but a P overall...carry any weight, or meaningless?

I'm IPZ this year and just got my prf back with a P.  Loads of combat time, few DGs (though honestly they're from flying programs and not school, so I cynically think they carry less weight), few lower level awards, and small, but consistent strats.  I fully expect to get passed over. 

You have the number to that truck driving school we saw on tv, Truck Masters I think it was?  I might need that.

IPZ for O-5?  DG will carry weight. “Definitely promote” in the push line without a DP checked means P.  Not as good as “if I had one more DP to give...” and probably means bottom 50% of promotable officers in your Wing. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Homestar

[Skitzo]

Skitzo you’ll make O-5.  If for no other reason simply because you used the term “catagory 1b level strat” which I’m not sure what it is, but sounds like something O-5s should know.  
Seriously though, you’ll be fine.  What you’re describing sounds like what an average board member puts in the “yes” pile.... assuming no derogatory info.

Sorry, it’s tier 1, 1a, 1b or something like that.

Basically the order of strength of strats. #1 Major is better than #1/120 as FGO Of the Universe. #1/53 ADOs etc.

Standard command push... SDE, JCS then Sq/CC

[bennynova]

SDE and JCS before sq/Cc!

 

  You're a shoe in!

[Skitzo]

SDE and JCS before sq/Cc!

 

  You're a shoe in!

 

Yeah... order didn’t make sense to me either.

 

That is an impossible pushline.

[Breckey]

Just saw on MyPers that the CY17D LAF Majors results are now late-May to early-June. If Duck's exec-y timeline is accurate they should be released the week after Memorial day.

[17D_guy]

12 hours ago, xaarman said:

https://warontherocks.com/2018/05/a-call-for-senior-officer-reform-in-the-air-force-an-insiders-perspective/

 

Any O-6s or HPOs care to weigh in on the above? Obviously I left well before the level of discussion in the article, but is the O-6 exodus as bad as he makes it out to be? I knew higher ranks were Political (as is being an Officer in general) but he makes it sound like it's more tribal than a country club in the deep south.

RUMINT//NON ATTRIBUTABLE

In my discussions with the HPO-boss whose coat tails I was riding, this was spot on.  As a Capt he worked for a "sponsored" Comm Colonel who was going places.  That Col retired as a 3-star, but still has deep ties to our (now) Cyber community.  That 3-star briefed a group of 17D's at a Friday Beer call that once he pinnned on his first star the MAJCOM/CV sat him down to ask if he was "in the game." 

My former HPO-boss retired because of a long-term family emergency. A very good dude, mentor and was doing good things about getting our culture changed.  He had guys that he made sure got high profile assignments before he bounced to cashing fat checks.  I did not work for him at the time, though we were in the same org and he looked out for me.

My actual boss during that time was not a HPO, was "asked" to retire and didn't secure a strat on my OPR despite DoD level awards.  Which...fine.  However, they wouldn't even tell him why I didn't get one or what to improve on/feedback.

Another Col I know said a lot of the same thing as the article, and also mentioned that I now needed to find another sponsor.

When I was working Wing front office stuff this is what the execs would talk about and how when someone ducked out that was planned for higher position it put a 48 month ripple through the system.  Apparently there's notional plans for all these HPO's and GO's that far out.  JQP had a good article on it a few years ago.  I'd like to note that the execs hated this whole thing and would have rather been flying.

Having sat "fake exec" a couple times and talking with the real execs, the time GO's put in to grooming a not small, but not large, number of candidates for quick moves wasn't a surprise. 

Having spoken with a lot of Col's at my last job, and seen how much more of their life they give up to wear birds, and the same w/ GO's...I'm not sure it's a deal I'd make even if given the opportunity.  I'm certain it's not a deal my wife would make.  I will grant that I've been blessed with good Col's and GO's since May of last year, so perhaps they're doing more than some douchebags would instead of pushing things down to us. 

Also, for the tribal piece.  I've heard this from every Col+ that I've talked with about promotion/assignment boards.  They called it the knife fights, and Col's came in with the short list of people they wanted to protect/push.  Sometimes they got all/some/none of their folks to where they wanted them.  That part was very political, and there were serious/loud gripes when other communities would push around for prized positions (see - 11M pilot now taking cmd of 690 NOS).  For Cyber there's also Cyber (Offense/defense), Mission Support and Combat Comm tribes, which are also distinct from Sq/Staff tribes.

 

Edited May 15, 2018 by 17D_guy

[FourFans]

16 hours ago, MDDieselPilot said:

What's the current thought on having "Def Promote" in the push line, but a P overall...carry any weight, or meaningless?

I'm IPZ this year and just got my prf back with a P.  Loads of combat time, few DGs (though honestly they're from flying programs and not school, so I cynically think they carry less weight), few lower level awards, and small, but consistent strats.  I fully expect to get passed over. 

You have the number to that truck driving school we saw on tv, Truck Masters I think it was?  I might need that.

Disclaimer: Each promotion board gets new guidance, and that specific guidance, nor the actual decision making process in the board is never transparently communicated afterwards.  In short, you’ll never know why you did or did not make it.

The “if I had one more DP to give” is the best ‘super P’

For the P’s, in recent boards, if the verbal DP is tied with a strong command push like “should command now” or “ready for command immediately” that can put you in the high portion of the P’s.  Conversely, if tied with a medium command push like “on track to command”, that verbal DP becomes less powerful.

It’s a tough code to crack...especially when you involve strats.  My IPZ PRF had a straight #10/20 senior rater strat, but an “on track for command” and no verbal DP, with a “P” checked.  Sounds cut and dry: exactly middle of the total pack, should be high P area with an overall 75% promotion rate.  Passed over.  Even colonels who’ve sat on boards looked at it and said WTF.  Even the civilian passed over counselor (I think she’s the only one, or one of a very few, so she has a good feel for the system) was a bit baffled.  Our awesome opaque process at work.

Honestly, after talking to a marine and some army guys I work with, I think the USAF promotion system is terrible and horridly riddled with unknowns.  By comparison, the marines get a list of exactly who’s on the board beforehand.  Ours sucks.  Don’t put any value on it.

Bottom line, once it’s sign, let it go and decide what kind of officer and man YOU want to be.  The ink representing some “leader’s” opaque opinion of your career DOES NOT define the impact you make.  Only you do that.  Don’t let the output of a broken system limit your contribution.  If you’ve got a lot of combat hours, chances are good that you have a lot to teach young kids, and a lot to pass on to your community.

I know that doesn’t make the process any easier to endure, and you will likely still want to throat punch a “leader” or two if you get passed over.  But know that regardless of rank and what the broken system decides, your inputs and experience are truly valuable to the LTs whose lives your experience and instruction can save.

 

[pawnman]

1 hour ago, FourFans130 said:

Disclaimer: Each promotion board gets new guidance, and that specific guidance, nor the actual decision making process in the board is never transparently communicated afterwards.  In short, you’ll never know why you did or did not make it.

The “if I had one more DP to give” is the best ‘super P’

For the P’s, in recent boards, if the verbal DP is tied with a strong command push like “should command now” or “ready for command immediately” that can put you in the high portion of the P’s.  Conversely, if tied with a medium command push like “on track to command”, that verbal DP becomes less powerful.

It’s a tough code to crack...especially when you involve strats.  My IPZ PRF had a straight #10/20 senior rater strat, but an “on track for command” and no verbal DP, with a “P” checked.  Sounds cut and dry: exactly middle of the total pack, should be high P area with an overall 75% promotion rate.  Passed over.  Even colonels who’ve sat on boards looked at it and said WTF.  Even the civilian passed over counselor (I think she’s the only one, or one of a very few, so she has a good feel for the system) was a bit baffled.  Our awesome opaque process at work.

Honestly, after talking to a marine and some army guys I work with, I think the USAF promotion system is terrible and horridly riddled with unknowns.  By comparison, the marines get a list of exactly who’s on the board beforehand.  Ours sucks.  Don’t put any value on it.

Bottom line, once it’s sign, let it go and decide what kind of officer and man YOU want to be.  The ink representing some “leader’s” opaque opinion of your career DOES NOT define the impact you make.  Only you do that.  Don’t let the output of a broken system limit your contribution.  If you’ve got a lot of combat hours, chances are good that you have a lot to teach young kids, and a lot to pass on to your community.

I know that doesn’t make the process any easier to endure, and you will likely still want to throat punch a “leader” or two if you get passed over.  But know that regardless of rank and what the broken system decides, your inputs and experience are truly valuable to the LTs whose lives your experience and instruction can save.

 

Meanwhile, I work with the one guy who had a DP checked, and still got passed over to Lt Col.  The civilian lady told him: 1. You didn't have enough FGO awards and 2. The board didn't think your DP was legit based on the other strats in the PRF.

[Homestar]

3 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

It’s a tough code to crack...especially when you involve strats.  My IPZ PRF had a straight #10/20 senior rater strat, but an “on track for command” and no verbal DP, with a “P” checked.  Sounds cut and dry: exactly middle of the total pack, should be high P area with an overall 75% promotion rate.  

 

This is best understood in the context that the 75% promote rate overall really breaks down to DP = 99% promote and P = 50% promote. 

If you are a P then you have a little less than a 50/50 shot at promotion. In the P category it really is hard to understand why one gets passed over while another gets promoted. I was a “super P” at the Wing level and the Wing Exec who had a straight P was passed over. Our Wing had 4 eligible. Two DPs promoted. Two Ps were 50/50. We had similar records. Hard to distinguish between our records. It’s a mystery. 

Of course, he’s flying for Delta now so it’s debateable that he’s the one who lost out. 

[xaarman]

11 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

RUMINT//NON ATTRIBUTABLE

 

I have nothing to add other than this is a great post. I really enjoy your writing style on here.

[ThreeHoler]

This is best understood in the context that the 75% promote rate overall really breaks down to DP = 99% promote and P = 50% promote. 
If you are a P then you have a little less than a 50/50 shot at promotion. In the P category it really is hard to understand why one gets passed over while another gets promoted. I was a “super P” at the Wing level and the Wing Exec who had a straight P was passed over. Our Wing had 4 eligible. Two DPs promoted. Two Ps were 50/50. We had similar records. Hard to distinguish between our records. It’s a mystery. 
Of course, he’s flying for Delta now so it’s debateable that he’s the one who lost out. 

QFT. I had a ton of O-6s dumbfounded why my record wasn’t promotable to O-5.

But there is something to be said about not giving a flying about what my OPR says these days as a 2x passed over dude.

The funny thing about the whole deal? I’ve impacted more pilots than pretty much most O-5 Sq/CCs and O-6 OG/CCs or Wg/CCs...and I’ll still wind up flying for some airline just like they will.

[FourFans]

4 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 I’ve impacted more pilots than pretty much most O-5 Sq/CCs and O-6 OG/CCs or Wg/CCs...and I’ll still wind up flying for some airline just like they will.

 

More people need to realize this earlier in the career path.

Chess, not checkers.

[Recut]

 

On ‎5‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 11:45 AM, ThreeHoler said:

The funny thing about the whole deal? I’ve impacted more pilots than pretty much most O-5 Sq/CCs and O-6 OG/CCs or Wg/CCs...and I’ll still wind up flying for some airline just like they will.

 

 

On ‎5‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 4:00 PM, FourFans130 said:

More people need to realize this earlier in the career path.

Chess, not checkers.

I just got my IPZ  LtCol PRF with the P checked  and weak  DP push line.   I didn't even know what a weak push line looked like (hence my first visit to baseops in years) so thanks to those who shared that info.

ThreeHoler and FourFans are spot on here, at least the way I see it.

I just wonder when big blue will stop pretending with all of this - we need pilots but we're still passing dudes over because they were pilots.  I am not bitter, seriously- I have had my chess game going for a long time.  highly recommend that to future operators! 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2018 by Recut
because I'm old and my computer sucks

[Skitzo]

 
I just got my IPZ  LtCol PRF with the P checked  and weak  DP push line.   I didn't even know what a weak push line looked like (hence my first visit to baseops in years) so thanks to those who shared that info.
ThreeHoler and FourFans are spot on here, at least the way I see it.
I just wonder when big blue will stop pretending with all of this - we need pilots but we're still passing dudes over because they were pilots.  I am not bitter, seriously- I have had my chess game going for a long time.  highly recommend that to future operators! 
 
 

Sorry man, best I can guess with a decent P push is that you and I are still in the same boat. Damn shame, I don’t physically think I could have done any more to earn a DP. So if you think similarly you and I have nothing to be disappointed about.

[Recut]

Thanks for that.  I'm good, I knew how it would play out even though I reserved a small amount of hope that someone would value my flying creds/and even non flying leadership stuff over queep.  But, it is what it is. 

I would be appalled if you're not promoted from what you've shared - completely sucks you have to stress about it until they announce results............I just can't see how you won't be promoted from that info tho

[ThreeHoler]

Been there done that. Skitzo will probably get promoted and Recut won’t. Unless the boards have changed that drastically in 3-4 years. A weak push is the kiss of death.

[Recut]

Yup.  my push mentions nothing of commanding.  Wonder why we play these games though when there's the "command track" and other BS nonsense and operators on the other hand.   Why wait until now when I was never on the command track to tell me I'm not on the command track? 

Again, I am good and not bitter at all.  Dent to the ego but I knew where I stood as a captain, let alone at this board.  I've always been an operator and have never played "the game" so this is no surprise for me. 

[Recut]

False info about never playing the game from me.   I did the whole masters thing for the majors board back then and did ACSC (now for nothing)

[BashiChuni]

1 hour ago, Recut said:

Yup.  my push mentions nothing of commanding.  Wonder why we play these games though when there's the "command track" and other BS nonsense and operators on the other hand.   Why wait until now when I was never on the command track to tell me I'm not on the command track? 

Again, I am good and not bitter at all.  Dent to the ego but I knew where I stood as a captain, let alone at this board.  I've always been an operator and have never played "the game" so this is no surprise for me. 

an "operator".

lulz. love it.

you got your subdued c-17 SOL2 patches on or wat? get at me son

#C-17_Delta_Force

#Bitch_I_Operate

don't take it personally bro i'm a few whiskey's deep at 2 am....its all good

but for the record youre a pilot. Not. An. Operator. 

Nothing wrong with that. I’m a pilot too. Shots x69

Edited May 20, 2018 by BashiChuni

[Recut]

Ok douchebag, I’m not trying to be cool. I entered this AF in the late 90s and by “operator” I meant pilot or operations vice pencil pusher. Punch yourself. 

[BashiChuni]

Haha. Cool man. Glad you’re a pilot. 

Cheers. 

 

Edited May 20, 2018 by BashiChuni

[pawnman]

4 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

an "operator".

lulz. love it.

you got your subdued c-17 SOL2 patches on or wat? get at me son

#C-17_Delta_Force

#Bitch_I_Operate

don't take it personally bro i'm a few whiskey's deep at 2 am....its all good

but for the record youre a pilot. Not. An. Operator. 

Nothing wrong with that. I’m a pilot too. Shots x69

How's life over there in the pilot group?  Because at my wing, we have an Operations Group.

[Duck]

Bashi, what’s going on in your life man? You’ve been a negative Nancy for a while man.

[Guest]

Bashi, what’s going on in your life man? You’ve been a negative Nancy for a while man.

I’m guessing it’s the pre-op hormones they have him taking.