Promotion and PRF Information

[snoopyeast]

The guys that come to work for 4 hours a day and are pretty useless get paid the same as those who spend 10 hours a day at work embracing the queep monster.  If you are between the 5 year and 18 year mark, have wings, a pulse and don't stab someone, you will make it to 20 years in the current air force.

[FUSEPLUG]

4 hours ago, pawnman said:

I'd love to not care, but I'm actually looking to get promoted.  Turns out, airlines don't use navigators anymore.

Now that Duck has been kicked to the curb, I look forward to following your progression.  As a fellow 05'er, I sincerely hope you get that promotion.  On the Guard side, I'm going to press-to-test on not doing ACSC in correspondence and see what happens. I'll let you guys know how that worked out for me in 6 years. 

[SFG]

1 hour ago, FUSEPLUG said:

Now that Duck has been kicked to the curb, I look forward to following your progression.  As a fellow 05'er, I sincerely hope you get that promotion.  On the Guard side, I'm going to press-to-test on not doing ACSC in correspondence and see what happens. I'll let you guys know how that worked out for me in 6 years. 

I've seen Reserve guys get O-5 without ACSC. Not sure how Guard would work, but I've always gotten the impression they give less Forks.

[Swizzle]

The 2005 YG Lt Col IPZ promotion rate that should be expected can be quickly, reasonably estimated. NOTE: one massive wildcard lately developing complicates precise calculations -- FGO continuation.

Each year the USAF needs to promote ~1,000 to O5 IPZ to feed the sausage maker. We haven't significantly restructured the force through O5 corps growth so only attrition needs calculating, but wait, other subtle variables are in play too. The USAF is never so clear cut. Subtract a modest W.A.G. of six dozen for BTZ from prior years. Because of retention of FGOs through continuation and the fact that DOPMA limits certain Officer Corps ranks size, the promotion rate could actually go down!! I dont know of a way to calculate quantity of continuation-continued Officers (maybe through AvB take rates of high YAS Officers...dang Nav bonus takers probably hurting 05's O5 chances! Who ate my lunch...Nav!? I digress...

Recently there have been about ~1,400 IPZ eligibles yearly. But the 2005 YG should be less than ~1400. That is because of Force Shaping shwacking the 2005 YG (hit with RIF). Note for future use: even more deeply shwacked younger than 2005 YGs (hit by RIF, VSP, TERA for prior Es, etc)...aka 100% promo to Major "competitors"

 

[pawnman]

16 hours ago, Swizzle said:

The 2005 YG Lt Col IPZ promotion rate that should be expected can be quickly, reasonably estimated. NOTE: one massive wildcard lately developing complicates precise calculations -- FGO continuation.

Each year the USAF needs to promote ~1,000 to O5 IPZ to feed the sausage maker. We haven't significantly restructured the force through O5 corps growth so only attrition needs calculating, but wait, other subtle variables are in play too. The USAF is never so clear cut. Subtract a modest W.A.G. of six dozen for BTZ from prior years. Because of retention of FGOs through continuation and the fact that DOPMA limits certain Officer Corps ranks size, the promotion rate could actually go down!! I dont know of a way to calculate quantity of continuation-continued Officers (maybe through AvB take rates of high YAS Officers...dang Nav bonus takers probably hurting 05's O5 chances! Who ate my lunch...Nav!? I digress...

Recently there have been about ~1,400 IPZ eligibles yearly. But the 2005 YG should be less than ~1400. That is because of Force Shaping shwacking the 2005 YG (hit with RIF). Note for future use: even more deeply shwacked younger than 2005 YGs (hit by RIF, VSP, TERA for prior Es, etc)...aka 100% promo to Major "competitors"

 

It's possible there will be a smaller pool, but in my neck of the woods at least, there are far more LtCols leaving than O-4s getting continuation.

Also, watching the promotion webinar, AFPC said there's a hard cap of 10% on BPZ.  They don't have to use all 10% on BPZ folks, but if they want to promote 1000 people (using your numbers), no more than 100 can be BPZ.

I'm trying not to stress too much about it... It's pretty much out of my hands at this point.  Either I get promoted, or I get continued... And with the bonus, I'll be paid like an O-5 even if I get passed over.

Edited December 1, 2018 by pawnman

[17D_guy]

3 hours ago, pawnman said:

I'm trying not to stress too much about it... It's pretty much out of my hands at this point.  Either I get promoted, or I get continued... And with the bonus, I'll be paid like an O-5 even if I get passed over.

It's going to be interesting to see how this works in my AFSC since the first round of bonus takers comes retainability in a couple of years. 

I've got young Capts coming to me worrying about this stuff...when what pawnman is saying is accurate.  None of this is in your hands, timing and luck cover a lot of these issues.  Bad bosses, poor writers, stuck in a shitty command...God Speed.

[HarleyQuinn]

19 hours ago, snoopyeast said:

The guys that come to work for 4 hours a day and are pretty useless get paid the same as those who spend 10 hours a day at work embracing the queep monster.  If you are between the 5 year and 18 year mark, have wings, a pulse and don't stab someone, you will make it to 20 years in the current air force.

Shack

[pawnman]

5 hours ago, 17D_guy said:

It's going to be interesting to see how this works in my AFSC since the first round of bonus takers comes retainability in a couple of years. 

I've got young Capts coming to me worrying about this stuff...when what pawnman is saying is accurate.  None of this is in your hands, timing and luck cover a lot of these issues.  Bad bosses, poor writers, stuck in a shitty command...God Speed.

The young captains are the ones that should be paying attention.  All the PRF mentoring I got in the last two years was basically useless, because the OPR push lines I needed to say "school" and "SQ/CC" were 4-5 years ago.  Hell, it was only in the past two years I learned that pairing the push line with your boss' gameplan is a recipe for disaster (i.e., the OPR says "perfect for chief of OGV" or "stellar choice for chief of safety" instead of a DO or SQ/CC push).

Those young captains need that input now, before those push lines are finalized.

[slackline]

The young captains are the ones that should be paying attention.  All the PRF mentoring I got in the last two years was basically useless, because the OPR push lines I needed to say "school" and "SQ/CC" were 4-5 years ago.  Hell, it was only in the past two years I learned that pairing the push line with your boss' gameplan is a recipe for disaster (i.e., the OPR says "perfect for chief of OGV" or "stellar choice for chief of safety" instead of a DO or SQ/CC push).
Those young captains need that input now, before those push lines are finalized.

Am I misunderstanding you in that young Captains should be getting DO and SQ/CC pushes? Am I taking crazy pills?


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[pawnman]

15 minutes ago, slackline said:

Am I misunderstanding you in that young Captains should be getting DO and SQ/CC pushes? Am I taking crazy pills?


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Potentially, but definitely by their Major's board.  "IDE, HAF, then SQ/CC!"

But they do need to watch for push lines that don't go up the chain.  A current flight commander shouldn't get a push to another flight commander or shop chief job, even if that is where they are going.  They should have ADO, staff, school, and depending on year group, SQ/DO or SQ/CC.

[slackline]

Potentially, but definitely by their Major's board.  "IDE, HAF, then SQ/CC!"
But they do need to watch for push lines that don't go up the chain.  A current flight commander shouldn't get a push to another flight commander or shop chief job, even if that is where they are going.  They should have ADO, staff, school, and depending on year group, SQ/DO or SQ/CC.

That’s understandable, but it’s odd to be pushing a young-ish Capt for DO or SQ/CC. People are speeding, and it usually has snowball effects. Before you know it, master’s degrees will be required even earlier if that crap happens.


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[pawnman]

1 minute ago, slackline said:

That’s understandable, but it’s odd to be pushing a young-ish Capt for DO or SQ/CC. People are speeding, and it usually has snowball effects. Before you know it, master’s degrees will be required even earlier if that crap happens.


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I get what you're saying, but just know this is what the MSG officers are doing, and it's why their promotion rates are the same or higher, even with CSAF telling Congress about his pilot manning crisis.

Edited December 1, 2018 by pawnman

[17D_guy]

1 hour ago, slackline said:

Am I misunderstanding you in that young Captains should be getting DO and SQ/CC pushes? Am I taking crazy pills?


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No he's correct. That's what all mine said. Here's correct about it, however our career-field is having a seizure about what we're going to value.

I almost got sent to what a Sq CC considered a DO equivalent job... Except for the duty title. Wing and Sq would have "understood" but that's it, so I fought it. I would have been labeled poorly at DT since last opr said DO selection spot-on.  Wing CC got appraised if situation and called shenanigans.

I meant to say the young Capts are worrying about if the next job/move puts them in some HPO path or awesome wing job for a wing strat. Let about "bloom where planted." Those things can be influenced, but are beyond individual control.

[Homestar]

4 hours ago, pawnman said:

All the PRF mentoring I got in the last two years was basically useless, because the OPR push lines I needed to say "school" and "SQ/CC" were 4-5 years ago. 

You can't have an OPR for a Captain say "future Sq/CC."  An OPR for a Captain can say "IDE in-res a must" or "perfect for HAF staff" because a Major can do those jobs.  Majors (pilots) can't be an ops squadron CC.  Since all ops Sq/CCs are Lt Cols you can't start making that OPR push till the ratee is a Major.

Authorized push statements must only be for jobs the ratee can serve in a the next higher grade at most.

My guess is that MSG Captains can get that push because MSG Majors must have Sq/CC billets somewhere.

Edited December 2, 2018 by Homestar

[IDALPHA]

18 hours ago, pawnman said:

Either I get promoted, or I get continued... And with the bonus, I'll be paid like an O-5 even if I get passed over. 

Buwahahha! You really think the bean counters haven’t figured this out?!

What would it cost to pay you as a Lt Col in retirement vs Major for the rest of your life?

Edited December 2, 2018 by IDALPHA

[matmacwc]

Yeah, I was thinking if you don’t make LtCol, you will take a pay hit not matter how you look at it.

[snoopyeast]

Young guys take note.  Set yourself up early to be financially independent of the military retirement.   Read up on investing during deployments,  spend/save/invest your money wisely, and make yourself marketable to the outside world.   You will have much less stress when the time comes to decide to stay or punch from the AF.   

[soupafly06]

16 hours ago, slackline said:

Am I misunderstanding you in that young Captains should be getting DO and SQ/CC pushes? Am I taking crazy pills?

For captains I wouldn’t necessarily say that but as a major you for damn sure better have the DO or Sq/CC push.  Certainly if It’s not on your PRF it’s a kiss of death (and it’s presence on a PRF won’t guarantee promotion either).  

[IDALPHA]

1 hour ago, snoopyeast said:

Young guys take note.  Set yourself up early to be financially independent of the military retirement.   Read up on investing during deployments,  spend/save/invest your money wisely, and make yourself marketable to the outside world.   You will have much less stress when the time comes to decide to stay or punch from the AF.   

Exactly. ACSC in correspondence won’t be going on my airline apps, but that bullsh1t masters I “had to get” to make major will.... choose wisely. 

[MooseAg03]

For captains I wouldn’t necessarily say that but as a major you for damn sure better have the DO or Sq/CC push.  Certainly if It’s not on your PRF it’s a kiss of death (and it’s presence on a PRF won’t guarantee promotion either).  

This is what sucks for those of us who were farmed out to RPAs and why those of us who returned to cockpits will all be leaving. Upon coming back you can either choose to fly your ass off to regain some credibility in your MWS, or you can sit behind the desk and work for that DO/CC push.


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[Homestar]

I disagree that a Sq/CC or DO push comes from working behind a desk.  Plenty of opportunities to show potential for command without being an Exec (if that's what you mean by sitting behind a desk).  Of course, your Chief of Stan/Eval has a desk to sit at and paperwork to push.

 

 

Edited December 2, 2018 by Homestar

[viper154]

2 hours ago, MooseAg03 said:

 

This is what sucks for those of us who were farmed out to RPAs and why those of us who returned to cockpits will all be leaving. Upon coming back you can either choose to fly your ass off to regain some credibility in your MWS, or you can sit behind the desk and work for that DO/CC push.


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That choice is easy, fly. The last 3 years I’ve been robbed of flying. You can bet your ass off I will be in the air every second I can, mostly because I just love being the air, but partially  to bolster my airline app.

My life has been much better since I stopped caring about all the other bullshit and focused on being a pilot. 

[MooseAg03]

I disagree that a Sq/CC or DO push comes from working behind a desk.  Plenty of opportunities to show potential for command without being an Exec (if that's what you mean by sitting behind a desk).  Of course, your Chief of Stan/Eval has a desk to sit at and paperwork to push.
 
 

From what I see (and it was this way in ACC as well), you have to work at an attached or on loan job to be considered worth anything. Squadron superstars are always pushed out to jobs above the squadron level (and in RPAs they are reserved for guys who re-catted). I’m fine with that, but I’m not going to waste what time I have left with that noise, as Viper said. I’m trying to rack up as much time as possible before punching, and a ridiculous desk job doesn’t facilitate that. Because of that, you can bet my last few OPRs on active duty won’t have any sort of DO or CC push. I’ll take my chances getting promoted in the guard/reserve, and hopefully without ACSC by correspondence.


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[HarleyQuinn]

Just got a call. "Man, can you help with with my PRF/ROP. It's late to the group and the Gp/CC wants my PRF now." I told the fellow DO the group exec doesn't know what he is doing. The eligibles don't do their own ROPs. I helped him out of course. I told the DO if the group exec needs any help just to ask. It's obvious the exec is just forwarding emails from the wing exec.

Nothing like a bud having to hammer out a 2 BPZ PRF/ROP on a Sunday during football with the Gp/CC on his ass. 

Edited December 2, 2018 by HarleyQuinn

[hindsight2020]

35 minutes ago, MooseAg03 said:

 I’ll take my chances getting promoted in the guard/reserve, and hopefully without ACSC by correspondence.


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Your shitty PRF won't be a problem for O-5 in the Reserves, hell we promote convicted deviants. Your lack of ACSC in correspondence however, will 100% guarantee your non-promotion. I'm telling you, it's that binary.

It's a matter of opportunity cost. A reserve retirement is not that lucrative when you have to wait for it until 60 (or high 50s as a disbursement buydown for certain 90 day chunks of orders post-2008), to the degree that O-4 vs O-5 would make a difference in your life.

All you're doing with reaching for O-5 is increasing your MSD in the reserves, which for an airline guy may or may not be worthwhile, depending on if the airline treats you right or you get sodomized in the *next (not *if) airline musical chair stopping period. That's more of a airline timing and industry thing, than anything inherent to O-5 considerations on the mil side.

Active duty retirement via the Reserves? Sure, you probably have an incentive to push through the bullshit ACSC side quest (which gets worse by the decade). Of course that also requires looking for O-5AGR in the line, where a lot of people time out waiting on a younger guy sitting ont the controlled position, and have to go looking for some retirement desk job just to get the TIG and go back to their airline. I'd certainly wouldn't do that just to get O-5 since I don't have a turbine job in my back pocket like MLOA airline guys do, but that's me and my reasons for sticking around in the military full time vice rummaging through civilian commercial aviation.

So do ACSC, and you'll make O-5. Don't, and you won't. It's not the end of the world, but it is that simple. Meaning there's no decoder ring here like there is on Active Duty. No excuse for not knowing this in the AFRC side. I'm not defending it; I'm exceedingly UNINSPIRED by every administrative aspect of my career, and it is tough as an intelligent individual to accept that mediocrity. I'm only here because I'm still having fun in the flight line. They touch my "baby" single issue vote, and I vanish like a fart with the wind so fast all they'll see is the outline of my prior self like Wylie coyote. I digress, my point being, the outcome track is open source, so it's an easy decision to formulate in the ARC. No decoder ring needed.

 

Edited December 2, 2018 by hindsight2020