Promotion and PRF Information

[di1630]

Not really. You have a 99% chance with a DP. You have about a 15% chance with a P.

I think it’s a bit higher with a “p” in the range of 45% however my point remains.

If you are one of the people not destined to make O-5 even with a P, you are not in the running for school.

Read another way: school slots usually go to people who were going to make O-5 regardless.


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[bennynova]

Schooling is not masked, no matter what they tell you

your ROP is there on an iPad and easily scrollable.  If you have a training report from an in residence school, it can be seen.   

The first page, your OPB? Does just say school complete or not, however i think it does show the year completed too.

masters degree and PHD are masked (if you took the initiation be to do it on your own)

however, a master or PHD when you did it full time will again be easily seen by any board.   So if you get an advanced degree, do it through the AFIT program to do it full time.

Edited March 17, 2019 by bennynova

[celtic020]

15 minutes ago, bennynova said:

Schooling is not masked, no matter what they tell you

your ROP is there on an iPad and easily scrollable.  If you have a training report from an in residence school, it can be seen.   

The first page, your OPB? Does just say school complete or not, however i think it does show the year completed too.

masters degree and PHD are masked (if you took the initiation be to do it on your own)

however, a master or PHD when you did it full time will again be easily seen by any board.   So if you get an advanced degree, do it through the AFIT program to do it full time.

Also, if you're en route to school your OPB will list "IDE....SELECT".  In such cases the board won't even have to scroll -- they'll know you're headed to IDE in residence.  Ipso facto...one more data point to prove that in-res vs distance is easily identifable to the board. 

[olevelo]

Schooling is not masked, no matter what they tell you
your ROP is there on an iPad and easily scrollable.  If you have a training report from an in residence school, it can be seen.   
The first page, your OPB? Does just say school complete or not, however i think it does show the year completed too.
masters degree and PHD are masked (if you took the initiation be to do it on your own)
however, a master or PHD when you did it full time will again be easily seen by any board.   So if you get an advanced degree, do it through the AFIT program to do it full time.

The discussion was more about that school getting in-residence credit, and therefore make them more competitive. Unfortunately your point still stands for that as well, because even if you have "credit", it's still obvious from your records whether you attended an actual IDE program or not. So the in-res credit is basically worthless.

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[Nope]

I know at least three FAOs who did the full FAO track (NPS, language, immersion, jt assignment) before “in-res” credit was given and got passed over in their IPZ to O5 in the last two boards. Maybe this board will be different?

Edited March 17, 2019 by Nope

[SFG]

2 hours ago, bennynova said:

If you have a training report from an in residence school, it can be seen.

Yeah. So like I said. FAOs who went to NPS before they got credit will show school complete on their OPB (because they did it through DL) and show NPS in their records. What will FAOs who went to NPS after this new credit show? School complete on their OPB and NPS in their records. Same, same.

2 hours ago, celtic020 said:

Also, if you're en route to school your OPB will list "IDE....SELECT".  In such cases the board won't even have to scroll -- they'll know you're headed to IDE in residence.  Ipso facto...one more data point to prove that in-res vs distance is easily identifable to the board. 

Also, none will show IDE...SELECT, because it is Deliberate Development credit given after completion, not IDE In-Res.

18 minutes ago, Nope said:

I know at least three FAOs who did the full FAO track (NPS, language, immersion, jt assignment) before “in-res” credit was given and got passed over in their IPZ in the last two boards. Maybe this board will be different?

As far as competitiveness... Have these guys done as much or more than in-res folks? Probably. But getting kudos for school attendance isn't about the quality of the experience, education, or training, it's about the quality-cut that got you there. For better or worse.

The FAOs that get promoted are the ones who would have gotten promoted anyway before going FAO or the ones who get selected for the competitive, high-vis FAO positions. I don't see the new credit having a huge effect. Sorry.

The real question is what happens to folks like this when the AF divides the LAF into competitive categories.

Edited March 17, 2019 by Klepto
To quote Nope... cuz his data is good.

[Nope]

27 minutes ago, Klepto said:

Yeah. So like I said. FAOs who went to NPS before they got credit will show school complete on their OPB (because they did it through DL) and show NPS in their records. What will FAOs who went to NPS after this new credit show? School complete on their OPB and NPS in their records. Same, same.

Also, none will show IDE...SELECT, because it is Deliberate Development credit given after completion, not IDE In-Res.

As far as competitiveness... Have these guys done as much or more than in-res folks? Probably. But getting kudos for school attendance isn't about the quality of the experience, education, or training, it's about the quality-cut that got you there. For better or worse.

The FAOs that get promoted are the ones who would have gotten promoted anyway before going FAO or the ones who get selected for the competitive, high-vis FAO positions. I don't see the new credit having a huge effect. Sorry.

The real question is what happens to folks like this when the AF divides the LAF into competitive categories.

Thanks. Good points. I don’t know the specific individuals’ records, but just wanted to provide some data that school in-res may not mean promotion; albeit through a different track than ACSC. 

[IDALPHA]

31 minutes ago, Nope said:

Thanks. Good points. I don’t know the specific individuals’ records, but just wanted to provide some data that school in-res may not mean promotion; albeit through a different track than ACSC. 

Sounds like some hyper intelligent people with fantastic resumes. I wonder where they stack “ACSC on correspondence” on the list of accomplishment?

[Nope]

8 minutes ago, IDALPHA said:

Sounds like some hyper intelligent people with fantastic resumes. I wonder where they stack “ACSC on correspondence” on the list of accomplishment?

I should specify ACSC in-res.  As far as I know, they all did ACSC in correspondence AND had NPS in res in their IPZ. If that helps?

[IDALPHA]

2 minutes ago, Nope said:

I should specify ACSC in-res.  As far as I know, they all did ACSC in correspondence AND had NPS in res in their IPZ. If that helps?

Further evidence how useless it is....

[ThreeHoler]

As far as competitiveness... Have these guys done as much or more than in-res folks? Probably. But getting kudos for school attendance isn't about the quality of the experience, education, or training, it's about the quality-cut that got you there. For better or worse.
The FAOs that get promoted are the ones who would have gotten promoted anyway before going FAO or the ones who get selected for the competitive, high-vis FAO positions. I don't see the new credit having a huge effect. Sorry.
The real question is what happens to folks like this when the AF divides the LAF into competitive categories.

Pilot promotion rates go down. Source: see the USN pilot promotion issues.

[dream big]

54 minutes ago, IDALPHA said:

Further evidence how useless it is....

Seems that way.  I totally get working staff prior to going back to command an ops unit, but I have a hard time seeing value added in ACSC besides the box to check.

Any IDE grads on here care to share whether it was actually valuable for your leadership development and career beyond the checked box?

[SFG]

2 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

Pilot promotion rates go down. Source: see the USN pilot promotion issues.

 

Can always cross-train to supreme allied AOC commander... or whatever that new AFSC is.

[17D_guy]

2 hours ago, Klepto said:

Can always cross-train to supreme allied AOC commander... or whatever that new AFSC is.

Multi-ethnic operations?

[I don't exist]

6 hours ago, dream big said:

Any IDE grads on here care to share whether it was actually valuable for your leadership development and career beyond the checked box?

Not in-res IDE grad, but I completed two squadron commands without going in-res. If one can command without going in-res, it can’t be that important.

[Guest]

Not in-res IDE grad, but I completed two squadron commands without going in-res. If one can command without going in-res, it can’t be that important.

Flying squadron? Did you make O-6?


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[I don't exist]

5 minutes ago, ihtfp06 said:

Flying squadron? Did you make O-6?

AMXS x2, as a Major. Not quite there yet. Just got back in an airplane and meeting O-5 IPZ board.

[Guest]

AMXS x2, as a Major. Not quite there yet. Just got back in an airplane and meeting O-5 IPZ board.

Good luck to you. O-4 seems pretty typical for an AMXS CC. I’ve yet to meet a flying CC who didn’t complete IDE in res.


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[Guest]

Also. I’ve only had one permanent DO who was an O-4, but he was an IDE grad an O-5 select. I know a non-IDE grad who got picked up for OSS/DO, but he will go to IDE 2nd or 3rd look.


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[I don't exist]

14 minutes ago, ihtfp06 said:

Good luck to you. O-4 seems pretty typical for an AMXS CC. I’ve yet to meet a flying CC who didn’t complete IDE in res

Most AMXS/CC’s are at least Lt Col selects and many are in-res IDE grads. AMXS command is the pinnacle of the mx officer world outside of being an O-6. I was an oddball (not special) as a pilot and young major.

Most flying sq/cc’s these days are in-res grads. That may change as dudes are choosing different paths. It’s always been a joke that the path to command is through attrition, it’s becoming less and less of a joke.

[panchbarnes]

PME in-res exists across the services and not unique to the Air Force.  In peace time, this is simply a rat race (as an example, no derogatory insinuation intended).  At the maze's exit there is an O-10 billet waiting for the lucky rat.  To get there, the rat has to successfully complete various tasks, DO, Sq/CC, PME in-res, various levels of O-6 command, exec tours, joint staff tours, inter-agency tours, SLS, Pentagon, MAJCOM command, COCOM command and etc.   For most in the Air Force, PME in-res and Sq/CC are the "pinnacle", but really they are just entry level objectives in the grand scheme of things.  So while you don't need PME in-res to be a Sq/CC, but you are likely to need at least one of the two PME in-res to be a GO.

Knows the rules of the game before you play.  Or to quote WarGames:  "The only winning move is not to play."

Edited March 18, 2019 by panchbarnes

[pawnman]

4 hours ago, panchbarnes said:

PME in-res exists across the services and not unique to the Air Force.  In peace time, this is simply a rat race (as an example, no derogatory insinuation intended).  At the maze's exit there is an O-10 billet waiting for the lucky rat.  To get there, the rat has to successfully complete various tasks, DO, Sq/CC, PME in-res, various levels of O-6 command, exec tours, joint staff tours, inter-agency tours, SLS, Pentagon, MAJCOM command, COCOM command and etc.   For most in the Air Force, PME in-res and Sq/CC is the "pinnacle", but really they are just entry level objectives in the grand scheme of things.  So while you don't need PME in-res to be a Sq/CC, but you are likely to need at least one of the two to be a GO.

Knows the rules of the game before you play.  Or to quote WarGames:  "The only winning move is not to play."

Which is a little disheartening, because the more folks that figure that out, the fewer folks will be willing to put in the hours once you miss the first gate.  Didn't DG out of SOS?  Might as well quit now, because the guy that did will get the IDE slot, staff, and command.  

[celtic020]

4 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Which is a little disheartening, because the more folks that figure that out, the fewer folks will be willing to put in the hours once you miss the first gate.  Didn't DG out of SOS?  Might as well quit now, because the guy that did will get the IDE slot, staff, and command.  

Non-concur.  I was a P on my major PRF, no SOS DG (or any DG), not a school select off my O-4 board and in my third look for school I got selected for CGSC and heading to my 1BPZ O-5 board with a DP.  The first change CSAF made for IDE selection directly helped me by elimating school selects off the O-4 board and broadening the candidate pool (not sure about this recent DA change though).   Of course, there are still made guys who are on the way to multiple BPZ promotions, command and in-res school programs...but I'd like to think this track starts around year 12 or 13 now instead of year 7 or 8.    I'd also like to think its highly possible, if not highly probable, that a lot of those made guys are actually really solid....of course a few douche canoes get through....would be the case in any system in any org.  

[Jetpilot]

Since most people like to reference the proverbial "made-man", I can attest that the opposite is also true. I.e. I have seen cases where someone with DG's from every level (USAFA/ROTC, UPT, SOS), #1 strat's at the sqd/grp/wg level, high-level awards, selected 1st look for school to a highly competitive fellowship program loses out, on BTZ promotion board to O-5, to a pretty decent "average" officer sans all the glitzy stuff mentioned above because the average guy was an exec for a GO just before the promotion board.  These examples highlight that the "made-man" theory is less about DGs/strats/awards than it is about who you know and when you knew them.

Bottom line:  I believe a lot of our frustrations can be traced to a mismanaged meritocracy.  However, I have a hard time believing it could be less subjective in the civilian sector. 

  

[panchbarnes]

1 hour ago, Jetpilot said:

because the average guy was an exec for a GO just before the promotion board.  These examples highlight that the "made-man" theory is less about DGs/strats/awards than it is about who you know and when you knew them. 

When I was a mid-level Captain I had two majors (solid dudes) on the CAG staff try to give me career mentoring, the secret to success...PCS your way to any HAF job and find an exec position as fast as you can to ensure future success.  I thought at the time, WTFO this is crazy talk and maybe borderline desperate.  But you know what?  It's the correct strategy (if promotion is your priority) and I really appreciate the dudes for willing to share the secret recipe with me (no I didn't follow their advice).  This is for a non-rated ops AFSC, but probably works for everyone.