Promotion and PRF Information

[addict]

6,000 mile screwdriver with a Q3 tip

[zach braff]

Does anyone have the timeline info from when the 2004 Maj board convened to when the results were posted and pin on began?

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It will be far different for this board due to the year long delay. 2004s are projected to finish pin on in May or June. So 2005 will hear results likely in March(ish) and pin-ons should begin in Jun/Jul. August at latest.

[Guest ThatGuy]

The 05 year group promotion board started/met today correct?

[Majestik Møøse]

Any of the aforementioned names are great examples for why no one should've stopped working on their masters.

[TnkrToad]

Board: Dec 12, first pin on: Jan 14.

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Last pin on: Not yet. That year group will be major selects for longer than they were second lieutenants.

I'm no math major, but 13 months from board to first pin-on ain't bad. Other year groups have had much longer waits between promotion selection and pin-on. Is your beef really that boards are happening later in folks' careers? If so, talk to dudes who met their O-4 boards back in the early 90s. You'll feel much better about your pin-on times/promotion opportunities.

[Fifty-six & Two]

Next year's Maj LAF board has been moved up to 21 Sep - 2 Oct. Better start on your PRFs.

[Guest ThatGuy]

Any word on whether that 95% promotion rate for the 2005 year group is true, false, or just plain bull? Why would rates be that high if it's true?

[Homestar]

Isn't the normal around 90%

[Learjetter]

Any word on whether that 95% promotion rate for the 2005 year group is true, false, or just plain bull? Why would rates be that high if it's true?

It's more like a 90% promotion opportunity. So if there are 2200 Capts IPZ, there will be about 1980 promotions for the 2500+ or so I/APZ Capts...

Hopefully, they'll drop the DP rate to 50%...when its 75%, there are DPs who don't get promoted...and that sux.

[Fifty-six & Two]

It's more like a 90% promotion opportunity. So if there are 2200 Capts IPZ, there will be about 1980 promotions for the 2500+ or so I/APZ Capts...

Hopefully, they'll drop the DP rate to 50%...when its 75%, there are DPs who don't get promoted...and that sux.

The amount of DPs that don't get promoted is less than 0.5%. Most of the time when an individual isn't promoted with a DP, it is because a SR is trying to game the system to get that borderline person promoted.

Edited December 12, 2014 by Fifty-six & Two

[Learjetter]

That's kinda my point...if 75% DPs are awarded, then 99% of the DPs get promoted, it means SRs are promoting their folks...not the board.

I think it'd be better if the DP rate was more like 50%, but the SR can award them I/A/BPZ as desired.

[Herk Driver]

Exactly, that's the point.

You think it's a better, fairer, or more accurate system to have a board of mixed AFSCs sitting around a table at Randolph deciding a guy's fate based entirely on his paper record than it is for the guy's direct chain of command who knows, works, flys, and has interacted with him to decide? ...How on earth do you figure that?

For a Major's board ('12 as an example) with a ~90% promotion rate, you want the board to have to sift through 50% of the records (~1,280 records), just to turn around and promote 79% (~1,006) of them anyway? (It'd be even more if the promotion rate is 95%). What a waste of time. ...And if you think passed-over guys are bitter/butt-hurt now, imagine the mistakes and injustice that would come from giving more latitude to a board full of strangers using nonsense CGO OPR bullets to make promotion decisions.

High DP rates (and DNPs) are one of the few things I think is good about the system. Let Senior Raters be SENIOR RATERS.

The trend is for less DPs and more promotion board input

[Learjetter]

Exactly, that's the point.

You think it's a better, fairer, or more accurate system to have a board of mixed AFSCs sitting around a table at Randolph deciding a guy's fate based entirely on his paper record than it is for the guy's direct chain of command who knows, works, flys, and has interacted with him to decide? ...How on earth do you figure that?

For a Major's board ('12 as an example) with a ~90% promotion rate, you want the board to have to sift through 50% of the records (~1,280 records), just to turn around and promote 79% (~1,006) of them anyway? (It'd be even more if the promotion rate is 95%). What a waste of time. ...And if you think passed-over guys are bitter/butt-hurt now, imagine the mistakes and injustice that would come from giving more latitude to a board full of strangers using nonsense CGO OPR bullets to make promotion decisions.

High DP rates (and DNPs) are one of the few things I think is good about the system. Let Senior Raters be SENIOR RATERS.

#1: SRs lack authority to promote officers

#2: SRs can be really dumb, can and do bend the rules

#3: it's the fairest for all when IMPARTIAL folks evaluate your record

#4: SRs input to the process is the PRF

[Guest ThatGuy]

Is there a percentage that the PRF will account for in your total score?

[HeloDude]

....let me guess, you got passed over

Might want to rethink your post.

Never pass up the opportunity, to...

[Karl Hungus]

#1: SRs lack authority to promote officers

#2: SRs can be really dumb, can and do bend the rules

#3: it's the fairest for all when IMPARTIAL folks evaluate your record

#4: SRs input to the process is the PRF

#5: Not separating promotions by AFSC (or at least rated vs non-rated) is one of the biggest things wrong with the AF.

[jrizzell]

For those that were interested and potentially awaiting news, I received the 8 Sep Special Selection Board non-promotion email from AFPC today...bummer dude!! Hopefully someone else got a better Christmas surprise.

[Techsan]

Saw that the promotion rate this year is 84% for Lt Col LAF, with 58% IPZ DP rate. Anyone remember the #s from last year & how they compare?

[Fifty-six & Two]

Saw that the promotion rate this year is 84% for Lt Col LAF, with 58% IPZ DP rate. Anyone remember the #s from last year & how they compare?

Are you saying that the promotion rate for the board that hasn't even met is going to be 84%? I'm pretty sure they don't release what the promotion rate is going to be prior to the board.

The CY14 promotion rate was 67% and I believe the DP allocation rate was 55%. The promotion rate for CY13 was 74%.

[jrufus]

Techsan, what is your source?

Edited December 30, 2014 by jrufus

[Techsan]

Techsan, what is your source?

Email from FSS that was sent to all MAJCOMs from AFPC.

[Herk Driver]

Are you saying that the promotion rate for the board that hasn't even met is going to be 84%? I'm pretty sure they don't release what the promotion rate is going to be prior to the board.

They absolutely do release the promotion opportunity for each board prior to the board. Last years O-6 board was 48% promotion opportunity and DP allocation rate was 15%. The actual promotion rate was slightly less than 48% in reality.

This article was posted about a month or so before the Nov board.

https://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/467096/colonel-promotion-rate-to-drop.aspx

Edited December 30, 2014 by Herk Driver

[Fifty-six & Two]

I stand corrected. I figured since one of the first questions after a board is usually "What was the promotion rate?", that it was another game of Big Blue playing I have a secret.

[pawnman]

Hopefully the next round of notifications will go better than this one did.

https://www.jqpublic-blog.com/youve-passed-merry-christmas-signed-anonymous-henchman/

In what world does a 1LT task a Major with a suspense over the holidays?

[sky_king]

What exactly is the punishment of not meeting that suspense anyway? Withheld promotion?