Promotion and PRF Information

[di1630]

And if I get a P...based on the blood bath last year...not hopeful for the board to select me for O5.

Chicken, not sure your particulars but even last year P's had a 50/50 shot. Plus I think this year the overall rate will be 84% with 58% dp rate....this giving a non dp a 62% chance if my math was correct. Somewhere. I just saw my PRF with a P and wasn't overly concerned.

A little concerned...yes, but hopefully I can nudge out 38% of the bottom.

Anyone out there know the other factors this year?

Edited January 24, 2015 by di1630

[Chicken]

Chicken, not sure your particulars but even last year P's had a 50/50 shot. Plus I think this year the overall rate will be 86% if I read correctly on here. Somewhere. I just saw my PRF with a P and wasn't overly concerned.

Anyone out there know the chances?

I don't have the brief anymore.. but last year overall was about 75%. DP was about a 99% and Ps on average were about 35%. Where did you see the overall rate of 86% for this year? My record is average.. last OPR was very good...

[di1630]

last year

Go back a few pages I this thread for the numbers. I edited my above response. Not good at math but I'd say better than a 35% chance for sure...my running of last years number are 48% shot for a P...and none of these factor in possible DP #s if those exist. Edited January 24, 2015 by di1630

[jrufus]

Reference posts 1812 and 1815. Good luck to all!

Edited because I can't figure out how to quote posts...

Edited January 24, 2015 by jrufus

[Chicken]

Reference posts 1812 and 1815. Good luck to all!

Edited because I can't figure out how to quote posts...

Thanks for that.. if that holds true.. then good.

[zach braff]

Dorking around on mypers - I just read that the majors board results will be out in early February ("status of boards" page), much faster than in past years. Also, from the current rate of '04 pin-ons, '05 pin-ons should start around June.

zb

[BFM this]

Dorking around on mypers - I just read that the majors board results will be out in early February ("status of boards" page), much faster than in past years. Also, from the current rate of '04 pin-ons, '05 pin-ons should start around June.

zb

Happens every year. My YG was 113 pin-on's per month until Nov, then everyone cashed out between Nov and Dec.

[BONE WSO]

Happens every year. My YG was 113 pin-on's per month until Nov, then everyone cashed out between Nov and Dec.

Didn't happen with 04 year group. There are still guys pinning on.

Edited January 28, 2015 by BONE WSO

[Whitman]

Dorking around on mypers - I just read that the majors board results will be out in early February ("status of boards" page), much faster than in past years. Also, from the current rate of '04 pin-ons, '05 pin-ons should start around June.

zb

That seems pretty fast. Guess they had to clear out the 05 YG before the 06 YG Major's board starts 21 Sept this year.

[tac airlifter]

Looking at the percentages listed above regarding P/DP actually getting promoted, does it hold true regardless of IPZ, APZ, BPZ? I went to the link & couldn't figure out. Basically, does a APZ/BPZ guy with DP still have a 99% shot at being selected?

[Chuck17]

Looking at the percentages listed above regarding P/DP actually getting promoted, does it hold true regardless of IPZ, APZ, BPZ? I went to the link & couldn't figure out. Basically, does a APZ/BPZ guy with DP still have a 99% shot at being selected?

Try this article, which links to mypers and even more stats... (CAC login)

https://www.afpc.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123416000

I know far more dudes who got DPs BTZ and got skunked than I do that got promoted.

Chuck

[Nineline]

Today, in my little corner of the AF, my SR chose to wait until the day before to distribute our PRFs even though he had them done days before. Why would a SR do this?

He also didn't hand them out himself, he forwarded them to the Group Commanders for distro and provided no feedback. Is that normal?

-9-

[Learjetter]

Looking at the percentages listed above regarding P/DP actually getting promoted, does it hold true regardless of IPZ, APZ, BPZ? I went to the link & couldn't figure out. Basically, does a APZ/BPZ guy with DP still have a 99% shot at being selected?

//wall of text alert//

No. DP allocations for IPZ/APZ and BPZ are different.

A DP given IPZ traditionally gives you your 99% chance of getting picked up.

A DP given APZ is rare, comes from the SR's allocation of IPZ DPs, and 50+% of the time, gives a guy a 99% chance of getting picked up.

A DP given BPZ is also rare, but not as rare as APZ. I'd say they have a >50% success rate.

AFPC keeps stats on all boards, and several MAJCOMs (A1) sites will have more specific demographics.

Example (very simplified) cohort:

The AF has 1378 LAF majors (all zones) eligible for P0515B (promotion board, to O5, CY'15, second officer promotion board of the year). 800 BPZ, 200 APZ, and 378 IPZ. Promotion "opportunity" is 85%. So there are 321 promotions to be had (378x.85=321)

A Wing has 70 of the 1378 majors.

Of the 70:

40 are 2 or 1 year BPZ

15 are IPZ

15 are APZ (1, 2, 3+ APZ, continued)

The Wg/CC is the Senior Rater (SR).

For this board only, the DP allocation rate is 25%

I/APZ (378x.25=95 DPs)

10% BPZ. (800 x .1=80 DPs).

So, our SR can give 3.75 DPs to I/APZ records (15 IPZ x 25% = 3.75)

The SR will allocate 3 DPs to the 3 "best" I/APZ records (as he/she decides), and take the .75 DP to the MLR.

The SR can award up to 4 DPs (10% of 40=4) to the top BPZ records.

At the MLR, all the SRs in the MAJCOM (usually, wing/CCs, staff directors, etc) toss their "leftover" DP fractions together to create whole DPs. Our guy put in .75, all the others put in their leftovers, and after adding them all up, the MLR can award 4 more I/APZ DPs. Now, the SR (typically) shows all the other SRs the DP records he awarded on his own, then competes his next-best record for one of the MLRs DPs. Our guy has good records, so he wins 2 more DPs from the MLR (5 total).

After the MLR, our SR's rack-n-stack looks like this:

BPZ. IPZ. APZ

1 DP. 1-4 DP. 1 DP

2 DP. 5-14 P. 2-14 P

3 P.* 15 DNP 15 DNP

4-38: P

39-40: DNP**

* this guy is eligible for DP, but SR doesn't think the record supports a DP.

**(All DNPs are guys with referral OPRs, Art15s, prisoners, etc)

Assuming the rest of the AF did it nearly the same way, most SRs lists will look very similar.

At the actual board, the 1378 records are randomly assigned to maybe six panels, each panel comprised of 5 LAF Colonels. So each panel scores ~222 records, scoring each one between a 6.0-10.0 scale, in .5 increments. If any 2 or more Colonels scores differ more than 1.5, the record is flagged and the "split" is discussed and resolved.

Your record's board score is the sum of the 5 scores from each Colonel.

You got a P, and your record got:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

7.5. 7.0. 7.0. 7.5. 8.0 =. 37.0

The best record in the board got a 50.0. The 1378th record got 30.0. The list looks like this:

1 50

2 49.5

3 49.0

4-79: 48.5-46

80-121: 45.5-42

122-176: 42-40

177-289: 39.5-38

290-316: 37.5-36

317-321: 35.5

322-399: 35-34.5

400-1378: 34-30

So, since there are 321 promotions available, everyone who scored 35.5 or more gets put in the initial promotion list. As a quality check, all the records with scores between 35 and 36 are rescored and a final top 321 list is built. Record #322 now gets rescored, if that record is fully qualified for promotion, then the process is complete (#322 does not get promoted, but his being fully qualified ensures everyone who DOES get promoted is fully qualified).

In the end, our fake board promoted the full 85% (321), with 275 IPZ, 35 BPZ, and 11 APZ.

There were 800 BPZ, 80 BPZ DPs, and 35 promoted.

There were 378 IPZ, 83 DPs (22% of the 25% allocation rate), and 275 promoted.

There were 200 APZ, 12 DPs (3% of the 25% DP allocation rate), and 11 promoted.

Congrats to all my fake Lt Col selects.

Your board #s will vary, but this illustration is typical.

Check your records (PRDA) , check your SURF (AMS) and DQHB (vMPF) often, and see your CSS to correct errors...and keep your ADP, VRED, and SGLI updated at least annually.

And not least: talk to your Sq commanders, talk to your group commanders, find a mentor. Ask questions, ask for frank feedback.

And...don't suck.

Good luck.

ETA: for the purists out there: yes, this is oversimplified, yes, I left out some stuff. This was intended only as "telling-time", not how to build a watch.

Edited January 31, 2015 by Learjetter

[HeloDude]

//wall of text alert//

Bam. Awesome--thanks for info!

One of the few things I retained (and thought was actually beneficial) from SOS was the scoring PRFs execercise. But it's been quite a while and your fake board example was clear and consise.

[ThreeHoler]

Unless something changed, aren't DNPs removed from considered in the overall eligibility?

I thought the promotion opportunity was x% of DP plus P records.

[Learjetter]

"Opportunity" % is determined before the PRFs are written...either way, it doesn't matter to the folks who get DNPs for that board...and the true number of DNPs given on a "real" board is negligible to the folks who didn't get a DNP.

[Chicken]

So..got my prf back finally..despite current leadership trying to help me out..a 1/12 ..top 5% fgos in group on last opr..wasn't enough to work a DP. Not sure if this was asked yet or discussed but any insight on TERA in the next couple years for the twice passed overs? Or will they simple get the boot? Or will they let them continue now since our numbers are the lowest ever?

[HeloDude]

So..got my prf back finally..despite current leadership trying to help me out..a 1/12 ..top 5% fgos in group on last opr..wasn't enough to work a DP. Not sure if this was asked yet or discussed but any insight on TERA in the next couple years for the twice passed overs? Or will they simple get the boot? Or will they let them continue now since our numbers are the lowest ever?

Did you ask your boss why they didn't give you a DP, specifically as it relates to your recent strats? If you don't ask then you'll never know, and worse, you're giving your leadership a pass without having to face the music and explain themselves.

[Chicken]

Record is inconsistent...he did push it sounds like.. lack of overall group level strats. Not bitter at all...based on what my record shows..I didn't deserve a dp if other records reflected better. Just hoping I have some other options out there. Not too pumped about my inconsistent record going to the board now..

..also..I noticed they left out combat on it..last time they made a note of my combat time..EKIA...all that. This time nothing..I am sure they all have their reasons but......

Edited February 1, 2015 by Chicken

[Nineline]

Record is inconsistent...he did push it sounds like.. lack of overall group level strats. Not bitter at all...based on what my record shows..I didn't deserve a dp if other records reflected better. Just hoping I have some other options out there. Not too pumped about my inconsistent record going to the board now..

..also..I noticed they left out combat on it..last time they made a note of my combat time..EKIA...all that. This time nothing..I am sure they all have their reasons but......

I'm in a similar situation in that I didn't receive a DP either despite leadership's help.

Overall, my record is consistent but with relatively lower % strats, (mine hover in the top 20-30% range). I did however have a DG on a TR that also included a top 4% strat. The DG was on my final PRF but the associated strat (my best strat of all of them) was removed. When I questioned it, I was told having DG and the strat was "redundant." Truth or BS?

-9-

[Learjetter]

I would've included both the strat and the DG...if it made sense in the story I'm telling the board.

As to leaving the combat stuff out, I probably would've kept it (early in the PRF), since I think the AF should value that...

But in both cases, your SR found something he/she liked better, to better demonstrate your potential to serve in the next higher grade.

The best PRF lines don't just say what you did, they indicate and describe what you CAN do, if given the chance.

[pawnman]

Record is inconsistent...he did push it sounds like.. lack of overall group level strats. Not bitter at all...based on what my record shows..I didn't deserve a dp if other records reflected better. Just hoping I have some other options out there. Not too pumped about my inconsistent record going to the board now..

..also..I noticed they left out combat on it..last time they made a note of my combat time..EKIA...all that. This time nothing..I am sure they all have their reasons but......

Didn't you hear? We're not doing combat any more. We're out of Afghanistan and Iraq, President Obama said so during the SOTU address.

[di1630]

I really hope they look at more than just the PRF. I compared my current IPZ to my BPZ and it sucks. Written by a rater who has met me once, after only a month in station. I offered him my old PRFs as a template and he declined. Apparantly all my time in the desert accomplished zero for my career outlook because not a mention of it.

Anyone know how much they look at duty positions and levels and take into account.

[Herk Driver]

They look at the entire record, your overall career, progression, and increasing levels of responsibility. How did you do at each level and how does that translate into potential to serve at the next level as compared to your peers.

[Chuck17]

Fellas - it may be too late, but this has been passed around recently and there's still some good info here - whether you're writing PRFs, trying to help out those who are, or stuck writing your own in self preservation mode....

Chuck

PRF 101 January 2015.pdf