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Posted

I'm going to have to go with snake on this one. The airlines have long ago surpassed pre 9/11 levels of passengers carried. SW was keeping their fares low due to the fact that they were the only major that had hedged the entire next years fuel while the prices were still low. Now they are going to be forced to start buying it at the same price as everyone else. Now we are going to see airline ticket prices continue to rise, and people are still going to travel. The other majors will be able to raise their prices as well as they won't have to compete with SW. We have had guys in my unit getting picked up like crazy. We have had 5 or 6 guys picked up in the last 2 months by UPS alone. There are others that are going back to other airlines as well in my unit. Pretty soon the min requirements are going to start to drop again for getting hired with a major. In 97 most of the majors were at 1000 total time, and 100 multi. I would bet we will be seeing those numbers in the next 2-3 years again.

Guest SnakeT38
Posted
Originally posted by USMCAirWinger:

"Would you like to bet your check versus mine?"

Dude I would do that bet in a heart-beat. Considering the fact that I work for Eagle (read: make peanuts and know what I'm talking about when it comes to AA furloughs/flowbacks) the extra cash would come in handy. I hope your inside scoop is not coming from Mr Kit Darby. By the way aren't you at AA. If there is something I should know with regards to the thousands of current furloughs, all the AA guys flowing back to Eagle, and the displacing of Eagle Captains by the hundreds please let me know.

If you know what you are talking about explain to

me how the most recent 71 pilots furloughed translates into "thousands". As for your "little"

company, the "flowbacks" were negotiated, UNLIKE

the HUNDREDS of city pairs that HAD AA Jets on them when I was hired, as EAGLE WASN'T even a wet dream.............perhaps you are one of the guys

giving our "flowbacks" some "rule 32" problems,

care to elaborate?

Guest SnakeT38
Posted
Originally posted by scoobs:

I would take that bet.The majors that are hiring have so much competion.There are still thousands of people on furlough.I still think AD is a good option.

To take the "bet" one assumes you have a paycheck,

which would mean you have a job? That would be?

[ 06. April 2005, 23:04: Message edited by: SnakeT38 ]

Guest AirGuardian
Posted

So with all this brain power flowing, it seems that all the airlines are overflowing with revenue, surpassing all pax expectations and buying up Boeing/Airbus 380s like they were Iraqi Dinar...not quite it seems. Cargo maybe, pax, hmmm... Delta, AA, USAir, United, etc. must all be in the green again so all is good like it was before 9/11, not that it was a full profit deal before either. Air travel will continue no doubt and as I said before(like your hero Snake) and will state again for those who read way too fast for their cells to comprehend..."everthing will be in cycles and it all comes down to timing!" Deciphered or phrased differently for better effect or absorbtion: it is now cycling up slowly and then the gates will close again. As snake mentioned, retirees, etc. will increase demand. But as long as he's been around the block it always is a cycle...kind of like UPT graduate numbers/requirements. Deferred, Banked, or recat - plenty of us have seen this one cycle through. Late eighties, (befoe TG the movie) there were quite abit less candidates and thus slots were ratioed better - early nineties to mid were horrible, and now the chances are nearly 40% to 50% selection rates these past few years... Cycles... I wouldn't compare UPS, FedEx or other Cargo to the Pax carriers if you recall the impact of pax vs cargo during previous crisis. Cargo flows regardless. DHL, quite a bit bigger than both of our major Cargo haulers put together...and growing! Even Europe has proven that against their own country backed airlines where ours are not. Deregulation, "greed is good!" -Gordon Gecko We'll see for our sake!

Guest AirGuardian
Posted

And there you have it...

For those flying now it's a grand opportunity to rack and stack those hours. There has not been any time in over a decade that has rivaled the number of flying hours the heavy/tactical aircraft have had - many exceeding 1000 hours in a year which is not normal obviously. Since 2001's issue, it basically has been non-stop and will continue for at least another year most of us are guessing - heavy guys. Good time for the mil pilots in general to accumulate those turb time hours, etc... It's been a record few years for many of us and will not continue too (year/plus) much longer it seems, unless the balloon goes up somewhere else again... Good luck to all, and once again it's timing...

Guest SnakeT38
Posted

USMC AirWinger.........I'll just stick to the

facts........

It takes AT LEAST 500 Eaglett jobs to equal

125 AA jobs..........never should have been one

to one..........as for the facts, some of the WORST crap I have seen hired since 1998 has come from Eagle.

Guest SnakeT38
Posted
Originally posted by USMCAirWinger:

Ha Ha...funny how your true colors come out. Oh let me guess you are just a message board Troll.

"It takes AT LEAST 500 Eaglett jobs to equal

125 AA jobs..........never should have been one

to one..........as for the facts, some of the WORST crap I have seen hired since 1998 has come from Eagle."

I imagine that you said the same thing to the TWA guys. Just remember the industry is changing and the archaic ways of AA/APA are not very conducive to survival. By the way, AA's safety record 6.09% is way worst that AE 2.06% so I'm not sure about what you are referring to by the "worst crap". Eagle must be doing something right.

Are you sure that you aren't some 15 year old playing on his flight sim the latest version of AA's 767 and T-38 on his PC.

If what you claim is true, do you believe that you are a better pilot/person just because you work at AA due to good luck and timing?

Believe it or not there are hundreds of military pilots flying at Eagle and other regionals due to the current situation. The dozen that I personally know are all humble and down to earth unlike you.

To be honest I'm just hanging out at Eagle until I get picked up by active duty. If you are any indication of the officers that I will have to work with I'm going to have a lot of fun. Then again most of the other Fighter dudes on this board are the total opposite of you, so you may just be that odd-ball.

Peace

Lets get something real clear........for our guys

from the mil that "flowed" back my comments don't apply, for you guys with "obvious" skill limitations (like why aren't you at JetBlue, AirTran, UPS, FedEx, SWA etc etc) I have NO SYMPATHY! The mere FACT you are WILLING to work for what you are paid is part of the reason the problems are out there. Actually, ALL guys I know that can't get on at airlines HAVE MANY OTHER Quals that can get them another job (ie not flying) I guess that doesn't apply to you does it Jarhead?

Guest Airtime
Posted

So does it look good for someone just starting out now trying to accumulate hours. Im not sure if I want to go the military route since it is so competitive. But the civilian route is expensive and also will take a lot of time.

How long does it take to accumulate the hours it takes for a major airline assuming they are hiring and how long would it take to work up to a good salary.

PS what are the salary's of the major airlines versus the lower commercial jobs?

Guest AirGuardian
Posted

According to the warriors having a toss at each other right now, it's either 1000 PIC, heavy turbine(whatever), or dropping to 500 or as low as 250 depending on what forecast you are looking at. True or not, we'll see - only time will tell. I hope so for the majority out there, but hope really isn't squat anyway and is a lower hour(less experience normally) requirement a good thing? I'm not doing the statistic thing.

Salaries definitely vary from mid to high teens starting and increasing depending upon seat position or time. First year for the majors varies as well. 35K to 40K is a good start for a few, but some are 27Kish - go ahead and correct me salary $$$ followers. Most majors go by seat position - Captain, Co-pilot, Engineer, etc. and type of airframe, but UPS determines your scale not only by seat position, but by year more so than airframe. Wide body, non-wide body, there are variances. There is a good website out there showing current payscales for the commuters/majors, but I can't muster any cells to bring it back to you. Maybe one of the more astute to and fro shuttle Captains can give it to you. They're on top of their salary watch right now, they'll know for sure and can also enlighten you on this vast airline network and how it is growing and the pay cuts that are in effect for a few out there.

Website? More stats? Current industry leaders today, not before? Thanks ahead of time for answering any or all parts of his question!

Have at it boyz! :D

[ 13. April 2005, 22:46: Message edited by: AirGuardian ]

Guest cloudy
Posted

My little lady and I were having a discussion last night on the pros and cons of getting an AGR/ART slot with the unit compared to the airlines. I tried my best to explain everything that I've learned on this forum, but I don't know how clear it was to her. Maybe some of you older pilots can chip in.

I know getting an AGR/ART slot as a new Lt would be almost impossible. However, if by chance one was available why or why not should someone jump all over it? In a world where times are constantly changing I would think that stability should be our main focuss in the flying industry.

I think a lot of new Lts plan would be to get on with an airline after MQT. However, whether you're fighter or heavy this would probably take two or three years after MQT, right? I've heard doing the airline gig and and being a part timer can be the best of both worlds. However, I also see being gone a lot from the family by doing this. Whereas, with a AGR/ART slot you would be home a lot more wouldn't you? Spend the day at the unit and then go home or am I wrong? I don't think that AGRs or ARTs are deployed anymore than a part timer are they? Also, it depends on airframe for sure. Full time fighter dudes would probably be home more than full time heavy dudes right? I just see family life being better if you're an AGR or ART compared to being gone flying in the airlines. I guess airframe is a huge factor, but please clarify if I'm wrong here.

Then money comes into play as well. I think Bozz stated that an ARG/ART gig COULD pay somewhere from 100,000-150,000 a year, but that wouldn't be as a new Lt would it? I would think that is after you're a Maj or something, but who knows. If that was the case you'd definitely be making more than if you're flying some regional airline gig for five or six years trying to get on with a major in the end. Plus, isn't retirement pay pretty good compared to what you would have in retirement in the airline world? I guess it would depend on how much you save in either field of work.

From everything that I can see, you'd have a great "stable" career as an AGR/ART. My favorite, you'd fly your military aircraft every week and not deal with whiny ass passengers and maybe be home a little more. In the airlines you might make a lot of money in the end, but at first you'll struggle.

I guess my main question would be this for you older guys. If you were a new Lt/Capt in a unit and you were offered a AGR/ART slot would you take it or go airlines instead?

As always, advice from you older guys never goes unnoticed.

Posted
Originally posted by cloudy:

I guess my main question would be this for you older guys. If you were a new Lt/Capt in a unit and you were offered a AGR/ART slot would you take it or go airlines instead?

As always, advice from you older guys never goes unnoticed.

Sounds like you have a very good understanding of the issues we've been bantering back and forth about for the past several weeks!

IMHO, I would take an AGR/ART job over an airline position for the reasons you mention. Salary is competive (since the airlines have ass-raped many of their pilots lately...ref the 34% pay cut at Delta this winter), you never have to move, you're home much more often, job security (after BRAC at least), good retirement, and more interesting flying.

As with many things in the AF, the hard part is getting the slot! (sts) Timing is everything!

Guest Rainman A-10
Posted

Cloudy,

Read the boards, this topic has been worn out.

Short but sweet...

-Go AD if you want stability.

-New guys don't get offered AGR positions, they are like gold in most units. They are typically used to hire highly experienced guys away from regular active duty. 1% chance you get a Tech position offered to you as a Lt. The full time positions in a FW are FTIs (Flight Training Instructors) so you need to be an IP to legally hold the position. AGR pay is based on rank, it is active duty. ART/Tech is based on a GS scale.

-The airlines aren't hiring much and your competition can all dive from the 10 meter platform without floaties in the deep end of the pool. You'll have to practice your cannon balls in the kiddie pool for a while.

-Retirement is different for all three. It depends on what you want and when you want it. Risk and reward.

A word of advice, don't ask "the little lady" what she thinks you should do. Respect her but don't ask her for career advice, especially before you even have a career. You either give military pilot training 100% and she goes along for the ride for a while or you don't even want to get started.

  • 6 months later...
Guest OldHercNav
Posted

All respects to my friends in the Guard who are "full-timers",some of the best fun I have had is to intentionally call a "Technician" an "AGR" or vice-versa and just stand back and watch the fur fly. The rivalry there is realy comical. I am sure it varies from unit to unit, but at my unit most OPS full-timers are ART's with only a few AGR. Actually, the compensation as an AGR is typically higher even with the "double-dip" you mention. Esppecially if you count that most AGRS pull an 8-hr day for good money and retirement and most ARTs are out there 15 hours a day to get that "double dip". And AGRs qualify for retirement just like AD. I know more than one ART who would love to switch to AGR but can't. Myself, I consider myself a "RAM" (Raggedy-A$$ Militia) and just glad to still fly and get paid. P.S. All traditional slots can double dip -it's called a civilian job. And it what the Guard was set up for.

Posted

Thanks for the info. I know that the GS pay scale isn't so bad. But it might be more work to fly in the reserves on top of your regular job. Especially if your flying heavies.

Guest AirGuardian
Posted

Remember,

States are only allocated so many AGR positions throughout the state, while GS-Positions are easier to drum up if you will. AGR positions are traded from within the state from different units, or areas from within units - whatever. They just can't be generated.

As far as one being better than the other, really is circumstantial per that individual and their future wishes. Those wanting to get that 20 year retirement and nothing more or just a little more - AGR great and is the way to go! Tech, you can glide on out for sometime, points wise - mil, civil, and your TSP are a bit more challenging to coordinate but give you dividends as well. Some unit's provide the pilot pay stiphend(not really called a bonus in the GS Scale), others do not. Some units will make you a GS-12, 13, step whatever depending on how that unit manages the situation per their state!!! Not all Pilots make the same, so don't take it for granted!

A few of us were pilots later on in life so the GS-thingy does wonders for you!

The rarest but most controversial thing! Having a 2nd or 1st LT pick up an ART job making more than double his pay if he were AGR or activated! Now whose your daddy. Like I said, it's all circumstantial and I'm not talking about the enlisted folks! They make bank when activated, so I can see their point!!!

Guest TheBurt
Posted

Scoobs,

As some of the other threads have talked about, a Technician or AGR job is sometimes easy to get and other times not. Since Sept 11 it is NOT. This is due to a units location and whether or not the airlines are hiring. As you can imagine there are a lot of furloughed airline guys with tons of time that are hanging around waiting for a Technician or AGR to die to get the slot, pretty much everywhere in the guard or reserves. Due to it's location my unit was hard to get a technician/AGR job even when the airlines were hiring, but a few of my UPT buds from other units went back to Technician jobs right out of UPT as a 2Lt, but forget about it now, maybe in a couple of years that will change again. If you could get a technician position that early in your career then I would have to say that is much better than going AGR ie. (much higher potential earnings, pilot bonus, initial salary as GS-13, pilot bonus), that is of course how a lot of guys get screwed with a technician job that have to wait until they are in their 30's and even 40's ie. not enough time left in career to advance up the GS step system, not enough time left to get a descent retirement with FERS (some units keeping them on as "temp" tech or "temp indefinite"), then it would be more beneficial to become an AGR and those slots are usually more few and far between.

Bottom line: If you are counting on a full-time job with a guard/reserve unit now is not the time. It will take several years for this to turn around with furloughs and BRAC uncertainty.

Posted

I was told that ART guys work a lot more then AGR. That there always keeping track of there hours. Does anybody if thats true or is everthing the same except the title? And can you take a non flying ART job and still fly?

Guest KoolKat
Posted

"And can you take a non flying ART job and still fly?"

"While pointing to my wrist I ask, what time is it?"

I know where my watch is, where the hell is

yours? Should I point at my crotch when I ask where the toilet is?

"Oh you just want to have your cake and

eat it too". What good is cake if I can't eat

it?

"it's always in the last place I look". Of

course it is, why the hell would you keep looking?

While I'm watching a movie, "did you see

that?". No Loser, I paid $12 to come to the cinema and stare at the damn floor.

"Can I ask you a question?"...Didn't really give me a choice there, did ya sunshine?

It's 'new and improved!'. Which is it? If

it's new, then there has never been anything before it. If it's an improvement, then there must have been something before it, couldn't be new.

"Life is short". Life is the longest damn thing you do. What have you done forlonger?

"Has the bus come yet?" If the bus came would I be sitting here, dumbass?

BENDY

Guest comanche
Posted

LOL Bender that was great!!

Guest comanche
Posted

Scoobs why you change your answer? You afraid ARGuardbum was going to rip you a new one? You think I have a bad attitude, your a douchbag for saying that!

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